Hey Borolad, does your mate have any inside info on the story behind RuSSian carrying out its usual tricks in Moldova the other other day?
As far as I can see its the typical playbook of Russians being "oppressed" in a foreign land and requiring Russian support to make the foreign land Russia again
Yep, this was his take on it.
"It is good thing that Russia is so dependably stupid, and that they do not understand what is required as pretext for a democratic western oriented (well sort of) country to go to war.
If the Russians had understood better the latter part they would have acted quite differently in regards of Moldova and Transnistria, but instead they just assumed that everyone are like them and just make a few lies and then attack.
Regardless of Moldova being fairly ready to go to war in the form of an internal policing action to take back their own part and kick the Russians out, it required one heck of pretext to do so.
After all, there is an agreement to safeguard the peace in Transnistria, however flimsy and forced it is.
According to international laws the Russians have a reason to be exactly where they are.
This means that without a very good reason all the Moldovans can do is to wave flags and look menacing across the border.
And the same thing goes for the Ukrainians, this is why neither Ukraine, nor Russia, has been firing at each other across the border. Well, with perhaps a couple of minor incidents, but in general it has stayed like this.
But, since the Russians are depandably stupid they had to go meddle in the internal affairs of Moldova.
The large protest from their supporters is Russias attempt to change the government in Moldova.
The Moldovans can contain this since the Russian faction has shrunk during the war, but there is a risk of something more mennacing coming.
So, what did Russia do today?
Well, they launched their largest protest to date, and closed down the highway in and out of Chisinau in a clear attempt to illegally change out the government. In other words, they try to start a Revolution of Dignity in favour of Russia.
Problem is that Maia Sandu is very legally elected and approved by the international comunity, and that the Medvedchuk never was that.
On their own Moldova is not strong enough to kick out the Russians without a full on mobilisation and war.
So, they need to ask a member of the international comunity for help to kick them out.
Obviously no NATO country will do it.
The other option is to ask for volunteers, equip them, and start an international legion. But, most willing to do things like that are a bit busy in Ukraine.
But, there is a country near that has both the means and the will to help, Ukraine.
So, here is what I think will happen in the next few days.
Moldovan - Transnistrian War
Moldova will ask the international comunity for aid with the internal security of Moldova with the pretext that there is a risk of the protestors performing a coup.
The EU will start a longwinded debate...
Zelenskyy will put is forehead into a wrinkled position, and then he will offer to send a few brigades into Moldova to uphold their internal peace without mentioning Transnistria.
Moldova will then state that many of the protestors are hiding in Transnistria and that they are supported by the Transnistrian government, without mentioning Russias troops there.
For natural reasons four mechanical brigades will then run up to the border between Moldova and Ukraine with a paper in hand stating that they are invited in to Moldova, and calmly stating that Transnistria is a part of Moldova (which it is).
The Transnistrians will look at the 10 000 strong mechanised salamis and say "shtool" and let them pass into "Moldova".
And there the Ukrainians will remain.
Russians being dependably stupid will have opinions, shots will be fired, and the Ukrainians will smile blissfully and deal with the Russians in a firm policing manner and ask them to leave "Moldova".
Mysteriously as the Russians stop being problematic at the astute and friendly hands of the Ukrainians, EU forces arrive to take over the policing and negotiation between Moldova and Transnistria, and they will tell Russia that they are sadly not invited to the table.
At this point Zelenskyy tell his "police force" to come home, and the Ukrainians ride off into the setting sun with 2 million tons of ordinance that they kindly offer to dispose of after a request from the Moldovan government.
Obviously there could be some variant of this, and there will be a few days of hard words back and forth first.
But, basically Russia handed the Moldovan all pretext she would ever need today."
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