Haha, he has landed (He was on the lash before he got called to vamoos
)
"
I am to old for this ****...
A long flight while sobering up, becoming hungover is a fair nightmare.
And then tired and hungover give a presentetion on the military status of Russia is no fun.
For those expecting a huge breakthrough tomorrow curb your horses.
Tomorrow is just about giving the initial statements, both sides will obviously be maximalist.
Difference is that the West and Ukraine has no intention of backing down from the maximalist position due to having the position of strength.
The Russian army is after all teetering now on the brink of total collapse.
After that, baring any Russian surprises like: Stop beating us we are going home, there will be just the minutia of setting a roadmap, and that is when I bow out and go home.
The negotiations will take weeks after all, and may not even be finished due to Ukraine crushing Russia.
After all, these are not peace negotiation, these are negotiations of terms of surrender, and about restitution.
Lavrov will obviously try to push it into a peace negotiation to try to get something out of it all for Russia. Fat chance.
My only role in all of this is to sit and listen in, and fill in any needed details from a military standpoint to the negotiator.
I am just a little runt in the bigger scheme of things.
Ukraine
Nothing much new to tell, more than that Russia is continuing to pull out troops from south of the Dnipro to reinforce the ever more stupendous defence line on the border of Crimea.
I would keep my eye out for news about Kinburn Spit, I wrote about it a couple of weeks ago, and it is definitely on the agenda to take it.
It would give Ukraine a much needed possibility for a pincer manouvre later on.
Vuhledar front is also as ever very interesting. It will be strengthened in about a week with troops from Kherson, and especially large amounts of artillery that will be transfered.
Surovikin is currently in flames with anger at the colonel who damaged the Nova Kakhovka dam. There is some sort of very limited ceasefire at both sides of the dam while the Ukrainians try to repair the damage.
What made Surovikin so angry is that there is a risk that a sluice gate breaks, and that would obviously make Crimea incredibly water-deprived again.
The water will though be cut off sooner or later as Ukraine retakes the other side of the river. And that will probably come in a few weeks time.
But, in general we can expect a fairly quiet week, even the Ukrainians need a bit of rest.
And, it is likely that there will be a final massive wave of missiles and drones from Russia as an answer to losing Kherson.
I do not think it will cause as much damage as the previous ones due to the onslaught of air defence that Ukraine has received in the last couple of weeks. On top of that Russia is starting to run out of stuff to fire at Ukraine.
Russias tank losses are now at a level that it is uncertain if they have enough left to defend the two Crimean land bridges.
Personally I would by now not even attempt holding it.
Because Ukraine will be able to cut the Kersh Bridge, and then a quarter of a million men will be without food, water, and other supplies.
For me the only question is when will the Russian army collapse?
According to my calculations that will happen at any time one month to six months into the future. No earlier, no later.
Due to the extreme lack of heavy equipment and supplies there is a frontheavy component to this, that is why I have 24th of December as my most favoured day.
Right now the Russian army is like a hen that has been beheaded, it is still running about looking like it is alive, but it has been dead for quite some time. All we are doing now is to pinpoint the moment that the headless hen falls down.
Now, naptime."
