The end?

Smoggle said:
Putin was on Russian state TV a couple of days back talking with a lackey about some domestic drivel, Kherson didn’t pop up in the convo!
Click to expand...

One of his doubles. Putin is very sick/dead.

On the battlefield, Ukraine has launched a massive artillery bombardment.
"2000 barrels, 300 rocket artillery and 1000 tanks opened fire at the same time. The bridges are gone, the pontoons are gone, the ferries are gone. 20 000 russian soldiers without a way out being pounded since four o'clock like this. Ukraine is trying for decissive victory. Decissive Victory is military speak for killing everyone."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590794079813926912
 
Thankfully it doesn't look as if the Russians had set booby traps and were prepared to conduct a house by house defence. That might have been dictated by numbers and equipment, but it must be the lack of motivation too. This isn't Russian homeland, Kherson isn't even predominantly Russian speaking.

Attacking across a river, which is next for Ukraine, is a major difficulty, but if there is a lack of motivation, numbers and equipment in the defending force, which there is, then pressing the advantage now might be what Ukraine does next. Then it's only about 80 miles from Crimea, isn't it?

Ukraine's intelligence has clearly been excellent. I guess they will know if a river crossing is likely to not be significantly opposed. They have also been very good on logistics and building their forces up, so I don't see them overstretching themselves and bringing on a damaging reverse.

I guess Ukraine have perfectly viable other places to change the point of attack. I don't know much about the terrain in Zaporizhzhia but it would seem to me that they are already on that side of the river and there is lots of partizan activity there especially around Melitopol.

A breakthrough there allows a sweep west to Kherson and Crimea (and east to Donetsk). If I was a Russian soldier I don't think I'd relish the prospect of being cut off in Crimea.
 
Lefty said:
Thankfully it doesn't look as if the Russians had set booby traps and were prepared to conduct a house by house defence. That might have been dictated by numbers and equipment, but it must be the lack of motivation too. This isn't Russian homeland, Kherson isn't even predominantly Russian speaking.

Attacking across a river, which is next for Ukraine, is a major difficulty, but if there is a lack of motivation, numbers and equipment in the defending force, which there is, then pressing the advantage now might be what Ukraine does next. Then it's only about 80 miles from Crimea, isn't it?

Ukraine's intelligence has clearly been excellent. I guess they will know if a river crossing is likely to not be significantly opposed. They have also been very good on logistics and building their forces up, so I don't see them overstretching themselves and bringing on a damaging reverse.

I guess Ukraine have perfectly viable other places to change the point of attack. I don't know much about the terrain in Zaporizhzhia but it would seem to me that they are already on that side of the river and there is lots of partizan activity there especially around Melitopol.

A breakthrough there allows a sweep west to Kherson and Crimea (and east to Donetsk). If I was a Russian soldier I don't think I'd relish the prospect of being cut off in Crimea.
Click to expand...

I can't see Ukraine trying for Crimea until the rest of Ukraine is liberated.

It's heavily defended, with a population of 2 million people, and sadly there'll be a sizeable part of that population that does genuinely want to be Russian.
It's not like most of the places they've liberated so far, there'll probably be major partisan civilian support for the occupation.

It would surely take a huge military effort to retake it, with many casualties, I expect they'll focus on Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk first.
The latter two will be trouble enough.

Hopefully they are able to reclaim all territories, but I think Crimea is by far the most likely to be sacrificed in a peace deal.
It's probably the only region of Ukraine that might genuinely have voted to join Russia in a free and fair referendum before the initial invasion in 2014.
 
In the last 24 hours, Ukraine stopped playing nice. While Russia was retreating and air defences were down, Ukraine took full and bloody advantage. It has been something of a massacre by all accounts, designed to send a terrifying message to Russia It might not play as well with some people in the West if and when it all becomes known.
 
borolad259 said:
One of his doubles. Putin is very sick/dead.

On the battlefield, Ukraine has launched a massive artillery bombardment.
"2000 barrels, 300 rocket artillery and 1000 tanks opened fire at the same time. The bridges are gone, the pontoons are gone, the ferries are gone. 20 000 russian soldiers without a way out being pounded since four o'clock like this. Ukraine is trying for decissive victory. Decissive Victory is military speak for killing everyone."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590794079813926912
Click to expand...
As much as I want it to be dead I want it to see Ukraine liberated before it gets sent to hell
 
borolad259 said:
In the last 24 hours, Ukraine stopped playing nice. While Russia was retreating and air defences were down, Ukraine took full and bloody advantage. It has been something of a massacre by all accounts, designed to send a terrifying message to Russia It might not play as well with some people in the West if and when it all becomes known.
Click to expand...
The harder the Ukrainians come down on the invaders the quicker they're out and more lives are saved. I certainly condem all war crimes (such as the many committed against Ukrainians) but any invader not surrendering is a legitimate target
 
TeaCider said:
I can't see Ukraine trying for Crimea until the rest of Ukraine is liberated.

It's heavily defended, with a population of 2 million people, and sadly there'll be a sizeable part of that population that does genuinely want to be Russian.
It's not like most of the places they've liberated so far, there'll probably be major partisan civilian support for the occupation.

It would surely take a huge military effort to retake it, with many casualties, I expect they'll focus on Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk first.
The latter two will be trouble enough.

Hopefully they are able to reclaim all territories, but I think Crimea is by far the most likely to be sacrificed in a peace deal.
It's probably the only region of Ukraine that might genuinely have voted to join Russia in a free and fair referendum before the initial invasion in 2014.
Click to expand...
Screenshot_2022-11-10-21-52-23-96_0b2fce7a16bf2b728d6ffa28c8d60efb.jpg
 
TeessideCleveland said:
The harder the Ukrainians come down on the invaders the quicker they're out and more lives are saved. I certainly condem all war crimes (such as the many committed against Ukrainians) but any invader not surrendering is a legitimate target
Click to expand...
It should be remembered though that many of those being slaughtered were not there of their own volition.
 
A bit more on this from my mate.

"
In the aftermath of the victory at Kherson things are happening.
First and perhaps most importantly.
The result of the 20 hour bombardment has raised concerns among the Ukrainian battle field commanders.
Several have complained that it was to much, and that it should not be done again.
And that there are too many dead Russians to process, and also that it was inhumane.
When even Sl****ska is green in the face and start to say that "they did not deserve this..." about Russian Mobiks. Then it is bad.

Now, a brief digress to numbers.
Between 1600 and 1700 hours 5kt equivalent was dropped on the Russians, and not in a single hour until 1200 hours did that number drop below 1kt. In total around 50kt of brisant force was dropped on the Russians. That is far worse than anything done in human history against an enemy. Just for perspective, that is 6 250 EURO-trucks worth of ordinance...

Surovikin is not known for being soft and cuddly, nor is he known for giving up.
After having West Kherson taken from him, and East Kherson blown to kingdom come together with his well crafted defence lines, he picked up his personal phone and called Soyghurt.
Obviously he knew that everyone would listen in. Or, he was in such a shock that he did not care any longer.
He asked for permission to surrender. That was denied.
He asked to be dismissed. That was denied.
Then Soyghurt asked for options. Surovikin answered, "To die!" and hung up.

When even Surovikin...
One of his commanders seems to indicate that Surovikin will pull back.
He knows that this will happen in a while somewhere else, and he has had it."

Sl****inska is Tank Girl ... she trained with my mate and has kept him informed from the front.
 
TeaCider said:
I can't see Ukraine trying for Crimea until the rest of Ukraine is liberated.

It's heavily defended, with a population of 2 million people, and sadly there'll be a sizeable part of that population that does genuinely want to be Russian.
It's not like most of the places they've liberated so far, there'll probably be major partisan civilian support for the occupation.

It would surely take a huge military effort to retake it, with many casualties, I expect they'll focus on Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk first.
The latter two will be trouble enough.

Hopefully they are able to reclaim all territories, but I think Crimea is by far the most likely to be sacrificed in a peace deal.
It's probably the only region of Ukraine that might genuinely have voted to join Russia
Click to expand...
Ukraine turned 85% of Crimea's water off in 2014, and was slowly throttling it. Russia has restored the flow by the rather untechnological solution of blowing up the dam. I'm not sure that Crimea is sustainable in the long run without access to Ukrainian water. I suspect Putin had reached a similar conclusion.
 
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