Not bald, not fat, not in teesside
I see someone has taken care of Strelkov/Girkin.
Anyway here's the latest from my mate in green, which actually landed yesterday while I was in transit to the land of the midnight sun. And mosquitos.
"A lot has been happening in the last couple of days, so I will do my best to update things.
First of all, there are reports that Ukraine somehow is close to Berdiansk.
There is even a video of this that ***** had found.
I find this a bit odd.
As far as I know Ukraine is moving towards Berdiansk, but are quite far away still.
I could buy that a recon force was there sneaking about in the bushes, but a convoy with T-72 tanks, not so much.
Also, Ukraine is mostly using western gear at this section of the front, so I would expect Leos and Challengers...
Anyway, we will see what is what here.
I once again reiterate that the news that are coming out are always 2-7 days after the fact, and that somehow two entire directions of offensive are entirely quiet from the side of Ukraine.
Basically Ukraine is only talking about three offensives out of five.
I will do this clockwise.
Bilhorod Peoples Republic
It seems like the FRL has left the area two days ago.
As the Russian Army reoccupied the area they caused a scandal inside of Russia since they used the same tactics as they do when occupying areas in Ukraine.
The soldiers looted the ever important toilet seats and washing machines, while raping and torturing the few residents that remained.
Thankfully most had evacuated either to Bilhorod City, or via the green corridor to Ukraine.
In Russian independent channels there is a lot of fuzz about this, and I quite understand them.
The FRL will obviously soon go in somewhere else and start a new wave of chaos in either Bilhorod, Bryansk or Kursk.
Question is more where, than if.
Personally I think they would cause more confusion if they went into Bryansk or Kursk, Bilhorod is by now used to it so a new attack would not make the wave of news inside Russia.
Bakhmut
Ukraine has now confirmed sizeable gains to the north of Bakhmut city.
They are now in control of the heights north of the city, confirmed on video, and they are happily shelling Russian positions due to holding those heights.
The villages (suburbs of Bakhmut really) of Berkhivka and Yahidne have been liberated as Ukraine took control of the heights.
There are also two other attack vectors into the Bulge north of Bakhmut, and it seems like Ukraine is intending to slice off the entire area and liberate the more tactically important City of Soledar.
Vuhledar
This is one of the offensives that Ukraine is not talking about, after reaching the A20 road that leads to both Donetsk City, and Mariupol it seems to have stalled out while Ukraine are performing large artillery duels both towards Donetsk City, and towards Mariupol.
Russia has also put in one of their 3 reserve brigades in this direction.
Oddly enough, the Russians are not talking a lot about this offensive either.
Neskuchne Offensive
This one is being performed meticulously and calmly by the Ukrainians, and there are deliberate daily gains here.
It is still unsure if this is a part of a major offensive, or if this is just Ukraine straightening out the frontline and creating pressure on the Russian reserves.
I see it as a bit of both, it is also creating an opening towards Berdiansk and Mariupol if they break through the second and third Russian lines.
It is here good to remember that ther Russian defence lines here and in Vuhledar are much lighter compared to down towards Melitopol.
Kakhovka to Melitopol
Here Ukraine is pushing the Russian second line towards Tokmakt and Melitopol, but it does not seem to be a priority, or the defences are harder than expected.
But, the Ukrainians are pushing hard along the shoreline of the former dam to set the conditions if the ZNPP need to be taken at Enerhodar.
At a minimum Ukraine would like to take ZNPP into a tactical encirclement with free line of fire of the access roads.
The plant itself is now being inspected for safety and updates on locations of the mines etcetera.
I am awaiting this report with great interest, both the public part and the not-so-public part.
There are intense political pressure attempts, and also attempts to resolve it through some deft hanky-panky.
Problem is that there are 6 reactors to secure in one attack, and if even one... you see my point.
It is truly the devils alternative.
Mortality
As Chechnya probably lost their main general a lot of other officers was killed, about 200 officers was hit at the same time.
It is erroneously quoted as having been chechen soldiers, but it was really officers from that contract signing ceremony.
This means that some units lack higher command on the southern front.
At the same time two generals have been arrested after they had a battalion stand for hours in full view of the Ukrainians near Vuhledar so that the general could hold a speach to the troops, but he never showed up.
Ukrainian artillery did though show up and used GRADs and mulched the soldiers as they stood there in lines...
Kherson
Ukraine stormed Nova Kakhovka again, heck knows how they got across, but they seem to once again have gotten some heavy gear across.
This was possible due to Surovikin having blown the dam and then pulled out most of the troops in Southern Kherson relying on Ukraine not being able to cross.
Since this is brand new, we do not know how Ukraine pulled it off, or what their intent is.
Due to the lack of troops it would technically be possible to create a stable stronghold prior to Russian reinforcements arrive.
But, it could equally well be an attempt to pull back forces into Kherson from the Melitopol defence.
We will see.
Civil War
After Shoigu lost it and sent out a day order to shot to kill Wagner soldiers it ended up with "Putin" heemself sending out an amended order.
Wagner has now until the last of June to sign the contract, and after that Shoigu's kill-order will become vallid.
Prigozhin has though clearly stated sod it to both of them.
To top it off, guess who tipped off the Ukrainians about that gathering of PMC leaders, Kadyrovite officers and Russian staff officers?
In other words, Prigozhin used the Ukrainians (who happily played along) to take out his personal enemies.
Unless a miracle happens and one of the parties cool down it will end up with Prigozhin sitting in his fortified camps with 20K soldiers, plus what he is recruiting actively right now.
He is also very well equipped.
Russia obviously have not a single soldier to spare to dig him out of those fortified positions, unless they leave Ukraine.
Then we have the dark horse in the corner.
Russia has more than 40 PMCs, question is whose side they will take in the upcoming civil war.
One thing is though clear, one of the sides will go to far, and soon.
And as that happens Russia will erupt in flames."
Weiedly, a video appeared yesterday of Prigozhin making a visit to the defence ministry to hand over the signed documents that make Wagner PMC subordinate to the MOD. Obviously a staged stunt .... they weren't accepted. Fun and games.
