The end?

@borolad259
I agree that mobilisation is incredibly difficult due to the training required for new recruits to be remotely ready to face battle hardened Ukrainians, along with the further logistics, supply and weaponry issues.

Anyone from Moscow with a tiny bit of power will not see their kids mobilised regardless. It will be the poor Buryats, Dagestanis and other provincial citizens (as per usual) that see their kids marched off.

Let’s hope Putin has capitulated and this is all late bluster and desperation by some hawks… I’m glad I’m not a betting man though! 😂
 
exiledinboro said:
The Guardian think Putin May speak later today

There’s reports that there may be moves for mobilisation and military law to be brought in

It sounds like things are up in the air

Btw, what’s Putins goat mean?
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Yep, all sounding ominous either way.

Not a clue on the goat…
 
borolad259 said:
Got a bit more detail. Erdogan set terms including full withdrawal, reparations and there will be a fairly hefty re-drawing of the influence map, including Russia losing the Stan's China takes care of the east, Turkey gets Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Europe picks up Moldova, Armenia and Ukraine. Russia gets to keep kalingrad. Basically a carve up .... This is influence, not ownership. Kazaks stay the honest neutrals.
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Not doubting your info here, or not in a disrespectful way, but I just don’t see Putin buying this - unless he realises he’s fooked and really is getting out to hide in the woods as Erdogan’s guest and eat anchovies for the rest of his days.
 
but the latest updates in the Guardian are suggesting the annexation is so they can can use nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory, this is not good scary times!

from the Guardian live feed :

As Ukrainian troops now begin making advances in the Luhansk region, Russia may be worried that it can’t win on the battlefield and threaten a potential escalation, including a formal declaration of war or even a nuclear attack, by claiming to defend its own territory.

“Everything that’s happening today is an absolutely unequivocal ultimatum to Ukraine and the West,” wrote Tatiana Stanovaya, an expert on Kremlin politics and founder of R.Politik. “Either Ukraine retreats or there will be nuclear war.”

“To guarantee ‘victory’, Putin is ready to hold referendums immediately in order to obtain the right (in his understanding) to use nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory.”
 
It sounds like Putin in having a last roll of the dice with fake elections and an 'annexation' of Luhansk and Donetsk. Interesting that today Erdogan also said Russia should retreat from Ukraine and give all territory, including Crimea, back to Ukraine.

Starting to look a lot like brinksmanship, let's hope one of Putin's people take him out ASAP as it sounds like he is getting desperate and desperate men sometimes do stupid things.
 
I think that Xi gave Putin the hard word this week. There's some other odd stuff going on though.... more of that later (something about hostages).
 
Fattyfoggon said:
but the latest updates in the Guardian are suggesting the annexation is so they can can use nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory, this is not good scary times!

from the Guardian live feed :

As Ukrainian troops now begin making advances in the Luhansk region, Russia may be worried that it can’t win on the battlefield and threaten a potential escalation, including a formal declaration of war or even a nuclear attack, by claiming to defend its own territory.

“Everything that’s happening today is an absolutely unequivocal ultimatum to Ukraine and the West,” wrote Tatiana Stanovaya, an expert on Kremlin politics and founder of R.Politik. “Either Ukraine retreats or there will be nuclear war.”

“To guarantee ‘victory’, Putin is ready to hold referendums immediately in order to obtain the right (in his understanding) to use nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory.”
Click to expand...

The Guardian has been some way behind the curve on this conflict. Obviously, the threat of nuclear escalation is always there but, given that this would end Russia and Moscow, it is unlikely to be a popular option in Russia. I doubt China would be too chuffed either.
 
borolad259 said:
Got a bit more detail. Erdogan set terms including full withdrawal, reparations and there will be a fairly hefty re-drawing of the influence map, including Russia losing the Stan's China takes care of the east, Turkey gets Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Europe picks up Moldova, Armenia and Ukraine. Russia gets to keep kalingrad. Basically a carve up .... This is influence, not ownership. Kazaks stay the honest neutrals.
Click to expand...

The reason I’m sceptical of this too is Russia doesn’t need assurances on kalingrad . Kalingrad is already a military fortress as they do store some nukes there. Trying to take it back would be an act of suicide
 
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