The end?

TeaCider said:
Erdogan saying Russia should withdraw is an entirely different matter to Russia actually withdrawing.

I'm sure Putin's definition of negotiation is getting to keep what Russia has already stolen.
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Oh I get that Putin may be spinning a line, but it’s strange that Erdogan would open up the possibility of negotiating whilst also stating Russia should give up all occupied territory, right after meeting Putin.

The brief thread below has some interesting takes regarding what the hawks want and how Putin may see it:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1572157919118135297
 
Smoggle said:
Putin has just met with Erdogan (and others) in Uzbekistan and Erdogan has just come out and said Putin is willing to negotiate and should give up all occupied Ukrainian territory.

It’s an odd thing to come out with at this time but Putin may be playing him… who knows after recent events? Putin still has a good few hawks that want mobilisation and the SMO to be declared a war, so a negotiated withdrawal will be hard to spin as a Kremlin victory, those hawks will be circling. I’d like to be hopeful of an end soon, it’s not hard to imagine either outcome potentially being the end of Putin.
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As I read it Erdogan said Putin was keen to negotiate an immediate halt. Full withdrawal was Erdogans words not Poo tins
 
exiledinboro said:
Russia hasn't announced the referendum it's pro russia separatists so may not be aware of Putins plans if they are to surrender
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That's exactly what Russia did with Crimea too, local puppets announce and "run" the referendum, then Russia gets to portray itself domestically as if it's just following the will of the people there.

They're not actually doing it without Russia's say.
 
Got a bit more detail. Erdogan set terms including full withdrawal, reparations and there will be a fairly hefty re-drawing of the influence map, including Russia losing the Stan's China takes care of the east, Turkey gets Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Europe picks up Moldova, Armenia and Ukraine. Russia gets to keep kalingrad. Basically a carve up .... This is influence, not ownership. Kazaks stay the honest neutrals.
 
Putin agreed so Erdogan now onto zelensky. This is the story I am getting. The US gets nowt except extra NATO members perhaps and a weakened Russia.
 
borolad259 said:
Got a bit more detail. Erdogan set terms including full withdrawal, reparations and there will be a fairly hefty re-drawing of the influence map, including Russia losing the Stan's China takes care of the east, Turkey gets Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Europe picks up Moldova, Armenia and Ukraine. Russia gets to keep kalingrad. Basically a carve up .... This is influence, not ownership. Kazaks stay the honest neutrals.
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Well, Putin should love that, he was all about spheres of influence in his 2007 Munich speech, this proposal might not be quite how he envisioned it though… that speech was the moment he told us who he was and it was precisely when many complacent nations should have taken serious notice.
 
Does Putin agree to these terms, and rides off into the sunset with his goat and a few billion in his saddle bags or will his ego have other plans?

Or will he steadfastly remain and some sort of coup likely?
 
Head of the Wagner group has been doing the Prison recruitment rounds.
Some claims that he got 6000 mercenaries to sign up. Do six months get your sentence quashed.
Pretty stringent conditions…no surrendering, deserters get shot. No works canteen.
 
Putin has transferred 25 billion into Turkey apparently. This may be his "safe haven" retirement home.
 
Smoggle said:
Doesn’t look like a capitulation is on the cards if the Russian government is pushing potential mobilisation and sham-referendums.
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Mobilisation is a no go. It will take ages to train them up and they do not have the manpower to do it. They do not have the weapons or ammunition for mobilisation and there is no way that the middle classes in Moscow will want lttle Sergei going off to be eaten by Ukrainians. The referendum is being called for by those that collaborated with Russia during the conflict. They are terrified of the retribution that will come their way when Ukraine takes back Donetsk and Luhansk. The best elite troops have left the front. They knew the score. What's left are mercenaries and the regional militias. Russia has already moved its submarine fleet out of Crimea.
I prefer to be hopeful. There has been a huge shift in the days since this thread was started.
 
borolad259 said:
Got a bit more detail. Erdogan set terms including full withdrawal, reparations and there will be a fairly hefty re-drawing of the influence map, including Russia losing the Stan's China takes care of the east, Turkey gets Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Europe picks up Moldova, Armenia and Ukraine. Russia gets to keep kalingrad. Basically a carve up .... This is influence, not ownership. Kazaks stay the honest neutrals.
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Russia should not keep Konigsberg if it uses it as a means of stirring trouble
 
borolad259 said:
Mobilisation is a no go. It will take ages to train them up and they do not have the manpower to do it. They do not have the weapons or ammunition for mobilisation and there is no way that the middle classes in Moscow will want lttle Sergei going off to be eaten by Ukrainians. The referendum is being called for by those that collaborated with Russia during the conflict. They are terrified of the retribution that will come their way when Ukraine takes back Donetsk and Kuhansk. The best elite troops have left the front. They knew the score. What's left are mercenaries and the regional militias. Russia has already moved its submarine fleet out of Crimea.
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Just today, Sakharovo is going to fast track the citizenship of foreign citizens who sign up for the 1 year military service. I thankfully never had to deal with the immense bureaucracy at Sakharovo but I heard the bonkers stories from other westerners. I did, however, see many migrant workers (mainly the poorer Uzbeks, Tajiks, Kyrgyz etc) waiting at the metro station from where you get off to get a bus… these will be the poor blighters that sign up.

This is from Sobyanin so it’s another major doubt that the powers that be in Moscow are about to end this peacefully…

“The Sakharovo Migration Center will cooperate with the RF Ministry of Defense, on the basis of the institution they will create an infrastructure for foreigners to enter the military service, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said.

"In the very near future, the Moscow government will deploy a full-fledged infrastructure in Sakharovo to assist the Russian Defense Ministry in organizing the entry of foreign citizens into the military service," Sobyanin wrote on his blog on Tuesday.

Sobyanin added that "city services will do everything necessary to make the conclusion of contracts as convenient as possible for citizens."

The Sakharovo Center is positioned as a "single window" for solving issues related to the employment of migrants.”

Source: https://www.interfax.ru/moscow/863086
 
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