Update from the bunker
"Drones over Mockba
That there was two drone hitting targets at the Kremlin is well known.
The first was a flag attack on the parliament building, judging from the angle and what happened it seems like it was made to explode by the Russians from an EMP.
It was definitely aimed to go above the roof towards that Palace of Kremlin.
Frame by frame evidence show that it did not hit anything and the UJ-22 drone is contact detonated, nor was it hit by any projectile weapon or missile.
Our interpretation was that it was hit by an EMP that shorted the electronic trigger device, interesting tech that is known to exist in Russia, but is very expensive and rare.
So using it above the Kremlin truly makes sense since Ukraine had warned everyone that there would be drones there on the ninth of May.
The second one hit the roof of the Palace of Kremlin and caused a small fire that was rapidly put out, and there was minimal damage.
So, from video evidence we know that it was Ukrainian produced UJ-22 drones, this is indesputable.
Nobody else has them, and Ukraine has shartloads of them.
They are produced by kevlar over foam, so they are rather stealthy, and definitely has the reach.
Ukraine had about 500 of them at the beginning of the war, and have produced roughly another 500, and about 500 have been used.
At least 7 of them have been fired at Moscow in different angles and locations, two dropped down outside of Moscow, two hit, and 3 caught on camera flew across Moscow.
Forget that this was a false flag attack, also forget that this was something launched by resistance.
These are military drones, and Russia doesn't have any, nor does the resistance movement.
Prigozhin
He started to flag about two weeks ago that he was gonna leave Bakhmut for greener pastures, and the dispute between him and the High Command has only gotten worse.
First he released a video that he was at a 70 percent ammo strangle, this is pure bull**** on his part really.
The entire Russian army is at the same strangle level, they are running out of ammo and shells, and he is getting exactly the same as other commanders.
We know this from intercepted phone calls from other commanders across the entire frontline.
Kinzhal
Yes it was indeed downed by the Patriot system.
This did not surprise me at all, it is exactly what later Patriot-versions was built to do.
That. Is. Why. We. Bought. Them.
The huge "Oh, they are unstoppable!" was just punditry all along.
Late model Patriots are built to down intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Those are truly hypersonic on entry.
The Kinzhal is not a true hypersonic weapon.
Say WHAT!!! Gasp!!! It is INVINSCHIBLEH!
The Kinzhal has a straight trajectory hypersonic travel path, but the last stage is unpowered and it rapidly decelerates during that phase and is possible to hit.
Patriots are the new sexy toy, so it get's written about as it downs it first target.
But, in the last 4 months 40 percent of all Kinzhals have been downed, all of them except today by the IRIS-T system.
Patriot has longer range, but in my opinion the IRIS-T is at least as successfull at downing things with a staggering total of 93 percent shot downs, and the 7 percent are indeed Kinzhals.
As I said the entire time, Russia does not have any real wunderwaffens...
Western tech is at least 1 generation more advanced, and often 2 or 3 generations better.
Heck, even Ukraine had better stuff at the beginning of the war, the HRIM-2 and the T84-Oplot tank just as two examples...
Sudan (Lesser News)
We did the least written about "let's go to war" of everyone.
On invite from the East African Council we are going into Sudan together with Kenya, France and a local coalition of willing.
The 400 SOG are going to be replaced by a full Nordic Battle Group, Fighter jets, the works.
Airlifting into Kenya has already started with lighter units while the heavy stuff is going on a fast car ferry that was requisitioned.
This is based around the same Heavy Mechanised Brigade that our colonel is running around with, plus artillery, infantry, air defence, and a Wing of Gripen NG.
Basically a combined arms army that is miniaturised.
France is also sending similar amounts, but lighter armed, and the EAC is sending in about 20 000 troops.
Why this overkill for Sudan?
Because both sides are battle hardened veterans from the civil war against South Sudan.
Also, because this is where Prigozhin are sending most of his Wagnerites.
As I mentioned, there was no chance in hell we would leave our friends in the EAC to hang and dry alone.
I am though surprised about how fast and easy the decission process was.
It also speaks volumes about how we judge Russian capacity when we are sending that grade of weaponry, and judge that we can have another on standby for similar rapid deployment to Africa if needed.
Right now we have 4 NBGs, one is holding Gotland, 1 is ready for deployment to the Baltics, and we can call up two more from reserve quickly, and another 4 from longterm reserve and storage.
We can definitely now spare 1 or 2.
It is though a learning curve, we just discovered that in the brave new world we need more military cargo planes, and more tanker aircraft, because we will have to do this for the next decade to put out all the bushfires that are erupting due to the Russian war machine.
Happily China played ball and filled up an entire container ship with goodies and sent it merrily on it's way to Mombasa to replenish the ammo strapped Kenyans, free of charge.
I guess Xi is seeing it as a divine thing to help Kenya **** up Wagner and Russia for killing his mining engineers...
This is the first time Sweden has gone into a conflict without it being a UN Peace Mission.
And since obviously the Sudanese did not invite us, and we are technically invading Sudan, we had to sort of declare war, lot's of legal Dubstep followed, even some Reaggeton was involved...
And in the end the King just signed it off as a support mission on behalf of our allies (AEC is technically that).
Personally I hate African wars.
They are the bloodiest that we have seen since WWII, so far Ukraine is a far cry from the two worst African wars (Congo 1 and Rwanda).
Ukraine is barely scraping up to Congo 2...
With Prigozhin and his merry Wagnerites around this will be quite something, even on the African scale.
I expect it to rapidly spread across 5 countries, take a decade, and the dead will be piled in their millions.
Thank god for the EAC, they are truly the shining light in this sorry affair, they just need a bit of backing from their allies (well, a lot).
If anyone ever wonders about if meddlesome Swedes ever did anything good, I would resoundingly point to the EAC.
The Frontline of Ukraine
As per usual I will kickoff with the Belgorod/Bryansk/Kursk part.
Ukraine is still sporadically massaging any Russians that venture to close to the front in Belgorod, and they are now concentrating on Railway bridges, oil depots, refineries and so forth.
So far no great signs of impending invasion of Russia, but the possibility for one is definitely set up now.
Siversk/Soledar/Bakhmut/Avdiivka-Line
Ukraine has sharply increased the amount of attacks around Siversk and towards Soledar, At least two tank Brigades, two mechanised brigades, 2 infantry brigades and two artillery brigades are involved in these fights, so it is definitely a serious push.
Ukraine is now steadily taking pieces of ground here.
Here Ukraine is taking advantage fully of the Russian Bakhmutophilia.
This is believed to be the beginning of a rather massive Pincer to encircle Bakhmut.
There are two main attack vectors here, one is going southeast towards Soledar, the other is going towards Lysychansk to pin down Russian forces.
Bakhmut, Reinforcements arrived in similar amounts, one entered Bakhmut and is driving back Russians there now that Wagner is almost not around any longer.
Another is driving in North of Bakhmut into the direction of Soledar.
Avdiivka, the Russians here are slowly being reinforced, and the fighting near the airport is said to be extremely hard, but with an ever so slight edge to Ukraine.
Any normal enemy would move troops here and say "screw it" about Bakhmut.
After all, Donetsk City is the shining jewel of the Russian possessions in Donetsk, but no... Russia is still moving out troops towards Bakhmut.
I find it bizarre that 1/3rd of the Russian army is in or around Bakhmut, and they are still not winning that battle.
In fact, Russia is currently slowly backing in the only attack they can push, and Ukraine is doing multiple attack vectors along an entire frontline and threatening Russias largest captured City, and that this is a single frontline and Ukraine is attacking at other frontlines.
Ukraine is definitely far superior in Strength compared to Russia.
On the Eastern Front the offensive has definitely kicked off now.
What remains to be seen is how serious the Ukrainians are about this.
It could either be an attempt to take positions, and bind down that third of the Russian army indefinitely.
But, it could also be an attempt to crush that third of Russias army, and that would be a full on knockout.
Southern Front
Vuhledar has also kicked off with Ukraine currently on the offensive in Pavlivka and Mykil´ske.
Taking those towns are probably just to get manouvre room.
After those are taken this rather sizeable Ukrainian chunk of the army can either go towards Donetsk to close the pincer there, or wham directly down towards Mariupol.
Time will tell, but I think this one is serious however you look at it.
The rest of the frontline is basically Ukraine pushing like pillow throttling someone while the artillery blow up position after position.
Here Ukraine is going for a slow push, and there are gaping holes here that they are slowly pushing through, the holes abandoned for Bakhmut, or due to some juicy anthrax.
I find it interesting that Ukraine is taking it easy here, where all the pundits said that Ukraine would push hardest.
A heavy attack here will though come sooner or later.
Kherson
The Russian general in Kherson is seemingly highly motivated to fight back against the slow advance of the Ukrainian forces, this has bogged down the Ukrainians both figuratively and literaly as they are trying to manouvre into positions to encircle and hack & slash.
Someone shoved a syringe with goodies into the **** of our favourite colonel so she slept off the worst, but she is still a bit under the weather.
She still went in for a second turn.
Here the Russians have organised a counter-offensive involving all available troops in Kherson.
Russias objective is clear, to push out the Ukrainians, and the Ukrainians are doing all in their power to punch through.
Ukraine is pulling in rather hefty reserves to reinforce, and if they succeed they will have nothing between them and the Western Crimean Landbridge.
If they loose, they will need at least 3 months before the next attempt here, and will probably be forced to go the longer route from Zhaporizhzhia.
I think that Ukraine will grind through, but it will take at least two more weeks of hard fighting.
Crimea
Ukraine stated outright that they would not try to storm Crimea, instead they said that they will completely cut it off from Russia and wait until they give up while they bombard them.
Basically exactly the same thing that I said.
This has already begun with those exploding oil depots, removing those will grind the Russian shipping to a halt, and that is one possible route to sustain Crimea.
The other two ways are via the Bridge, and the land bridge.
The bridge is quite within the capacity for Ukraine to cut at will at any time with the amount and types of missiles at their disposal.
HRIM-2s, Storm Shadows and Gungnirs are being withheld from missions for a reason, and Ukraine definitely has enough to dump that bridge into the water.
Cutting the land bridge means going to at least one out of three cities on the Azov Sea.
Those are Melitopol, Berdyansk and Mariupol.
Either one and every single soldier to the west and in Crimea is out of all possibility of being reinforced and supplied.
Which one?
Vuhledar
Remember how Ukraine seemingly toyed with large Russian forces and totally destroyed them over here.
Here there was no ifs or buts, just squash, splat, and move on.
Whacking 3 brigades with that ease is a big tell.
Seemingly like magic Ukraine pulled enormous artillery resources out of their ****, and entire tank brigades showed up, and disappeared.
But, since Ukraine did not push here (until now), nobody really took notice.
If you have that overkill at hand, and are not pushing, nor moving out the surplus to other places, it is an army in being for something.
And while everyone looked at other sexier spots more and more units took up position at depth.
Now, let us look at things from the perspective of a Vuhledar to Mariupol push.
Avdiivka to Soledar are pinning down half of Russias Army, with Bakhmut being the cherry on top of the cake.
With Donetsk under direct attack, there is no help at all available from the North.
Kherson is nailing down all troops there.
Melitopol is understaffed and has serious problems with holding the lines without Ukraine really trying.
There is just no reinforcements available for Russia during a Ukrainian Thunder Run towards Mariupol.
And yes, Thunder Run is an accurate military term.
It is a massive rapid manouvre attack where you mech and tanks just hauls **** and run over everything while firing as fast as they can.
It is the ultimate do or die attack, it is blietzkrieg taken to the max.
Looking at the units in place, they are very much looking like someone is setting up for a Thunder Run as soon as Ukraine has broken through the frontline, and they are working on just that right now.
Why Mariupol?
Well, it is poorely defended, there is no easily available Russian reinforcements without opening up for the Ukrainians somewhere else.
But let us do the real why.
If Ukraine punches through here they maximise the amount of Russian soldiers without food, ammo, dildos, lube...
Half of the Russian army would have to surrender in a fairly rapid manner.
At that point Russia has no other option than surrender, because half of their meagre reserves of gear is gone, half of their manpower.
And on top of that daily news in Russia of units giving up or being slaughtered... the political kick in the face would be enormous.
Final News
We now have the first signs of cracks among the Siloviki.
Bortnikov (FSB) and Naryshkin (GRU) seem to have reached some sort of agreement, and that does not involve the Security Council under Patrushev and Medvedev.
Word in Moscow is that Patrushev well and truly has gone as deranged as Medvedev.
His utterly lunatic interview where he said that the US wanted Central Russia as a reserve for when Yellowstone erupts was just icing on the cake.
The troops around Kremlin are now FSB and not Rosgvardia, their commanders have been removed.
There are open talk about GRU are removing people at breakneck speed (the real Spetznas are GRU) in Moscow.
And, so far the 9th of May have not been cancelled, but with the army gone it will concist of Vympel only.
Vympel are FSB soldiers, and unlike other years there has been no order about removing the ammo.
If I was a Muscovian I would buy vodka, rye bread, sausage, girkins and popcorn and stay the heck at home on the 9th...
Is it certain that there will be a coup then?
No, but it is the first time all the requisites has been there for one.
I think that if Ukraine can just give a reason or two, they will go for it."
