When the numbers were released initially Brexit was blamed, there many posts on here saying it's all brexits fault. That's what it has to do with Brexit chickenrunner.
And I agree no harm done to the country, everything has been so good since 2020.
Staggering revision to UK GDP
- Thread starter alvez_49
- Start date
When the numbers were released initially Brexit was blamed, there many posts on here saying it's all brexits fault. That's what it has to do with Brexit chickenrunner.
And I agree no harm done to the country, everything has been so good since 2020.
Zoophonic
Well-known member
Rob Dobson, the director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “August saw a further deepening of the UK manufacturing downturn. The PMI [purchasing managers index] sank to a 39-month low as output and new orders contracted at rates rarely seen outside of major periods of economic stress such as the global financial crisis of 2008-09 and the pandemic lockdowns.”
Yes we aren't doing too badly are we.
Yes we aren't doing too badly are we.
ForssAwakens
Well-known member
Serious question for you. Do the new figures mean our gdp would have been better or worse because of brexitWhen the numbers were released initially Brexit was blamed, there many posts on here saying it's all brexits fault. That's what it has to do with Brexit chickenrunner.
And I agree no harm done to the country, everything has been so good since 2020.
As far I can see there is no brexit impact revision with these figures
Are we also saying draconian measures of covid were also good for the economy now cos we bounced back greater
Just do a little critical thinking on it rather than being so binary
exeterboro
Well-known member
Reading an article in the FT about this yesterday, and even they were bit sceptical about the whole data gathering process, they said when it is recalculated in 2 years it could drop again, there is so many variables that even the companies who they are taking the data from don't know exactly where they are. Either side Brexit and Remainders can't really take anything from this.
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Johnny Vincents Motorbike
Well-known member
I'm not being binary I am incredibly skeptical of the ONS figures I thought that would be clear.
I'm just pointing out the hypocrisy that is this forum. When initially released it was doom and gloom and brexits fault.
I can't help that you're unable to read between the lines and fall directly into the hypocrisy.
Did you question the figures back in 2022 did you state this is unlikely to be related to Brexit?
ForssAwakens
Well-known member
The question is though where those people wrong initially? Everything the reports on brexit impact says it has lowered gdp?
If brexit hadn’t happened we would have recovered even stronger
Nero
Well-known member
Just like any right-wing paper doesn't cover anything remotely against what it wants to brain wash people with.
EDIT: As for media not reporting stuff. None of the Tory press have ever reported that Cameron and Osborne totally f*cked the country with their austerity. Austerity that was based on economic research that has since been shown to have made mistakes. They subjected millions to brutal cuts on dodgy research that suited their right wing neoliberal agenda.
What reports and how do you come to those conclusions?
I'm a remainer but you are reaching.
Easterside_Red
Well-known member
The ONS is not fit for purpose if it's going to be re-writing history like this.
Based on it's original assessment the Government would have made policy decisions which have inevitably made people worse off.
And now the ONS come back with this?!
Based on it's original assessment the Government would have made policy decisions which have inevitably made people worse off.
And now the ONS come back with this?!
ForssAwakens
Well-known member
Brexit analysis - Office for Budget Responsibility
Since the announcement of the EU referendum we have been producing analysis and writing about the potential effects of Brexit on the economy and public finances. We have compiled our assumptions, judgements and analysis on this page.
obr.uk
ForssAwakens
Well-known member
The impact of Brexit on the UK economy: Reviewing the evidence
Two-thirds of the British public think Brexit has damaged the economy, while even among Leave voters only one in five think the impact has been positive. This column looks at the evidence across three key dimensions – trade, migration and investment – as well as the overall macroeconomic...
cepr.org
ONS figures are inherently inaccurate - they're a mixture of estimates and incomplete data. They can still be useful if they're consistently inaccurate e.g. if they were always 10% out. They're less helpful when they're trying to capture sudden and unprecedented changes in activity that don't fit their models (viz covid). As firmer data supercedes former estimates it shouldn't be a great surprise to find the numbers were more 'out' than usual. Headline writers don't do nuance, however. 'Might be better, could be worse' never trumps 'UK sick man of Europe' in the media.
GDP revisions show UK economy almost 2% larger than thought
By the time the Omicron variant hit, the UK economy was actually 0.6 per cent above its pre-Covid level, not below it.www.spectator.co.uk
Well I've never been a fan of brexit but the ONS say it turns out our economy had been over performing to a staggering number at the back end of 2021.
I remember the SmallTowns of the fmttm community going wild about how this was all brexits fault, that we were lagging behind the EU in a big way.
Well turns out we actually according to the ONS outperformed Germany, France and the whole Eurozone.
As someone who wanted to remain in the EU I will hold my hat up and say 'Seems like brexit didn't throw us off an economic cliff'.
Now not to say I believe the ONS figures one bit.
Unsurprisingly the guardian hasn't covered this story, what a terrible rag it is.
LaPennaBianca
Well-known member
Until Brexit proves to be a significant material improvement to EU membership, it will always be a failure given the rights we have lost and the damage to the UK's international standing.
Regardless, it will never work.
Cost of Brexit | Centre for European Reform
R
rbmfc1985
Guest
The idea that we can directly compare GDP between countries when GDP calculates different things in different countries is rediculous. I studied economics in my PPE degree and that's one of the first things you're told is to account for discrepancies like this. It might be right that we're doing better than EU countries, it might be wrong. But the right thing to do is question whether or not whether the way we calculate GDP is skewing the data, and if so, in which direction.
BoroMart
Well-known member
One thing I've learned in my life is NEVER EVER use one single metric as a definition of strategic success. That's strategic management 101. You need a balance range of metrics to understand strategic performance.
R
rbmfc1985
Guest
Well, the cost of living crisis is down to the higher cost of items. If everything costs more and people are still trying to maintain their current standard of living, there will be more economic activity. So it's theoretically possible.
I'm going to dig into the data if I can next week because I'm interested how this has been revised upwards so drastically.
BoroMart
Well-known member
So in other words GDP on it's own doesn't give the picture of the health of the economy for most people.
Lets do some root cause analysis on this, lets "5 whys" this statement. Why are items costing more?