Staggering revision to UK GDP

[1finny]

To be fair, although they are very good points, they are nothing to do with Brexit, they are caused by our incompetent Tory government, along with the homeless, no GP appointments, no dentists etc etc.
More knowledgeable members of this board can probably add more to this list of course.

But it does demonstrate that a growing GDP is kind of pointless if there is no benefit to that growth for education, those in poverty and those in our public services.
Trickle down economics has been well and truly trashed.

 

[Andy_W]

Jesus christ, this is another one straight out of the "How-to lie with Statistics" book, but not from ONS, just how it's been interpreted.

If you don't like the result, change how you calculate the result.

Even better if it's a complicated calculation, that nobody understands, other than the one doing it. I do this all the time at work if I know the requirement for the calculation is practically pointless anyway, and I'm not getting the result I want to show. Obviously, this is a bit more important.

I'm not saying ONS are lying, they're not, They've just changed a calculation or the variables, and the result is probably correct based on that calculation.

The key thing is why have they changed the calculation or variables, have they done that on their own initiative, or have they been asked to by who funds them (the government).

However, no matter how you change the calculation or variables, it's not going to polish the brexit turd.

It's also a subjective calculation, hard to compare various countries, and if they used the metrics we are then their GDP may get a boost also. I expect their governments/ state funders have a bit more honest intentions.

We had the fastest-growing GDP in the G7 before the brexit vote, now we've got the least, and we have the worst forecast too.

 

[alvez_49]

Jesus christ, this is another one straight out of the "How-to lie with Statistics" book, but not from ONS, just how it's been interpreted.

If you don't like the result, change how you calculate the result.

Even better if it's a complicated calculation, that nobody understands, other than the one doing it. I do this all the time at work if I know the requirement for the calculation is practically pointless anyway, and I'm not getting the result I want to show. Obviously, this is a bit more important.

I'm not saying ONS are lying, they're not, They've just changed a calculation or the variables, and the result is probably correct based on that calculation.

The key thing is why have they changed the calculation or variables, have they done that on their own initiative, or have they been asked to by who funds them (the government).

However, no matter how you change the calculation or variables, it's not going to polish the brexit turd.

It's also a subjective calculation, hard to compare various countries, and if they used the metrics we are then their GDP may get a boost also. I expect their governments/ state funders have a bit more honest intentions.

We had the fastest-growing GDP in the G7 before the brexit vote, now we've got the least, and we have the worst forecast too.

The ONS are claiming Andy that they've had some richer data come in due to 'lockdown fog lifting'.

I agree with you in that I don't think our standard of living (what GDP is very loosely supposed to show) is doing anything other than deteriorating.

Being leaned on is the same as lying let's be honest.

I'd disagree with you regarding the EU doing better than us currently, unfortunately Germany is in trouble on a couple of fronts not least the gas situation (that we're all aware of).

Side note have you checked out the French luxuries market, it's smashing the NASDAQ. Unbelievable returns for them.

 

[JackG]

Jesus christ, this is another one straight out of the "How-to lie with Statistics" book, but not from ONS, just how it's been interpreted.

If you don't like the result, change how you calculate the result.

Even better if it's a complicated calculation, that nobody understands, other than the one doing it. I do this all the time at work if I know the requirement for the calculation is practically pointless anyway, and I'm not getting the result I want to show. Obviously, this is a bit more important.

I'm not saying ONS are lying, they're not, They've just changed a calculation or the variables, and the result is probably correct based on that calculation.

The key thing is why have they changed the calculation or variables, have they done that on their own initiative, or have they been asked to by who funds them (the government).

However, no matter how you change the calculation or variables, it's not going to polish the brexit turd.

It's also a subjective calculation, hard to compare various countries, and if they used the metrics we are then their GDP may get a boost also. I expect their governments/ state funders have a bit more honest intentions.

We had the fastest-growing GDP in the G7 before the brexit vote, now we've got the least, and we have the worst forecast too.

Most ONS revisions are part of a routine. The initial figures are a mixture of data and estimates. Over time more data is harvested which replaces earlier estimates. Setting aside the deficiencies of the underlying model, the stats become 'clearer' over time, in the sense that they rely less on estimates. This process actually goes on for years.

 

[Andy_W]

The ONS are claiming Andy that they've had some richer data come in due to 'lockdown fog lifting'.

I agree with you in that I don't think our standard of living (what GDP is very loosely supposed to show) is doing anything other than deteriorating.

Being leaned on is the same as lying let's be honest.

I'd disagree with you regarding the EU doing better than us currently, unfortunately Germany is in trouble on a couple of fronts not least the gas situation (that we're all aware of).

Side note have you checked out the French luxuries market, it's smashing the NASDAQ. Unbelievable returns for them.

Yeah, there are always ways to add things onto data, and you can add on good bits and not add on bad bits. It's hard to compare figures at the best of times, but comparing a country's revised figures, with other country's original figures is likely not a good comparison.

Yeah, Germany is struggling because they relied on Russia for Gas, but they will overcome that. Long term their outlook will be better than ours, and it is.

The main reason we're struggling is because we chose to inflict self-harm on the economy, which isn't repairable to get us at the same level of easy trade as we once had, it's just not possible to make things harder with your neighbours and get away with it.

Yeah, stocks are weird at the minute. The rich aren't getting poorer, only the average and poor are getting poorer.

Most of the S&P is largely down about 10% too, and it's not being talked about as about 5 massive companies are masking it (the main AI/ tech lot).

 

[Andy_W]

Most ONS revisions are part of a routine. The initial figures are a mixture of data and estimates. Over time more data is harvested which replaces earlier estimates. Setting aside the deficiencies of the underlying model, the stats become 'clearer' over time, in the sense that they rely less on estimates. This process actually goes on for years.

Yeah agreed, they can be made more accurate, whther they are or not compared to other countries is a different matter.

I trust the ONS to do a good job, but with an election coming up I would be a bit concerned about them being leaned on.