Second favourites now for promotion

junos_boots said:
Surely bookies look at what are their liabilities when deciding odds eg which team has most money on them.

This would suggest that Boro and Leeds fans are the most optimistic (foolish?) about their sides promotion choices.

Lets be honest whoever goes up, the bookies will have their book balanced so that they will still make a profit.
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It's both - and that is for a mix of covering liabilities and as market forces can be signs of inside knowledge.

Inside knowledge is unlikely to effect long term bets like promotion and the marker is big enough that it will not be that heavily altered by bets made.

Not a bookie myself, but know people who have sat the odds compiling exams for big bookies. They mostly ask about knowledge of sports, understanding form in a sports historical and recent context, and what stats are effective when used.

That will include context like strength of schedule etc.

I don't think with our play so far this season it is surprising that we have shortened promotion odds.
 
BoroPhil said:
And we still are.
And still comfortably odds on for a top 6 finish.
300/1 now for relegation.
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Well we probably need about 20 points to avoid relegation in 33 games…I’m confident we won’t go down 😂 I have us 4th or 5th faves for
Promotion right now….but a lot depends on January and how much we go for it. Get ourselves a great number 10 for the last 4 months and I might increase that to 3rd 2nd faves
 
BoroMart said:
Well we probably need about 20 points to avoid relegation in 33 games…I’m confident we won’t go down 😂 I have us 4th or 5th faves for
Promotion right now….but a lot depends on January and how much we go for it. Get ourselves a great number 10 for the last 4 months and I might increase that to 3rd 2nd faves
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😬
 
BoroMart said:
Well we probably need about 20 points to avoid relegation in 33 games…I’m confident we won’t go down 😂 I have us 4th or 5th faves for
Promotion right now….but a lot depends on January and how much we go for it. Get ourselves a great number 10 for the last 4 months and I might increase that to 3rd 2nd faves
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Where we are in the list of promotion candidates is a little meaningless. The price is important though.

We are currently about 8.5/1-9/1 which is probably white close to our real chance.

I think it's unlikely that we miss out on the playoffs, currently 1/2 for top 6.

If we finish in the playoffs you can be almost certain to get, at least, 4/1 for promotion.

You could trade promotion by backing us at, let's say 8/1. If we don't get promoted but finish in the playoffs, trade out at 4/1 for a 2/1 profit.

Unfortunately there isn't nearly enough money available to make it worth while.

More to the point, we are 4th favourites to win the league but without Leeds there is a bunch of 4 teams at, roughly the same price. Sports traders thinks we have the same chance as 3 other teams of winning the league and assume Leeds are quite likely to win the league.
 
Laughing said:
Where we are in the list of promotion candidates is a little meaningless. The price is important though.

We are currently about 8.5/1-9/1 which is probably white close to our real chance.

I think it's unlikely that we miss out on the playoffs, currently 1/2 for top 6.

If we finish in the playoffs you can be almost certain to get, at least, 4/1 for promotion.

You could trade promotion by backing us at, let's say 8/1. If we don't get promoted but finish in the playoffs, trade out at 4/1 for a 2/1 profit.

Unfortunately there isn't nearly enough money available to make it worth while.

More to the point, we are 4th favourites to win the league but without Leeds there is a bunch of 4 teams at, roughly the same price. Sports traders thinks we have the same chance as 3 other teams of winning the league and assume Leeds are quite likely to win the league.
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8.5-9/1 to win the league though, We are about 3/2 to be promoted.
 
Laughing said:
More to the point, we are 4th favourites to win the league but without Leeds there is a bunch of 4 teams at, roughly the same price.
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I don’t really do betting, so the odds are meh, it’s all just about risk management on the bets that they are liable for.

Gambling odds are largely dictated by populism and I try to avoid that.

In my mind though, yes there are three teams with significantly better squads than us, but they’re not exactly steamrolling the division. So it’s feasible we could take 1 or all of them, but I’d still see that as us over achieving relative to them.

I think we are in a group of 4 or 5 teams of relative similar quality. A lot depends on January for other teams as well as us, those unknowns will influence the final table massively. I think we have a great base to build from and get the ten position working and I think we could go to another level. Hull got Fabio car also on loan last year, a similar signing and we’re gonna be right in the mix
 
BoroMart said:
I don’t really do betting, so the odds are meh, it’s all just about risk management on the bets that they are liable for.

Gambling odds are largely dictated by populism and I try to avoid that.

In my mind though, yes there are three teams with significantly better squads than us, but they’re not exactly steamrolling the division. So it’s feasible we could take 1 or all of them, but I’d still see that as us over achieving relative to them.

I think we are in a group of 4 or 5 teams of relative similar quality. A lot depends on January for other teams as well as us, those unknowns will influence the final table massively. I think we have a great base to build from and get the ten position working and I think we could go to another level. Hull got Fabio car also on loan last year, a similar signing and we’re gonna be right in the mix
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I don’t agree with that at all. You could make a case that there are maybe one or two teams that have better starting 11’s but in terms of squad depth, which is critical at this level, we are right up there.
 
Humpty said:
I don’t agree with that at all. You could make a case that there are maybe one or two teams that have better starting 11’s but in terms of squad depth, which is critical at this level, we are right up there.
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I tend to agree with mart on the squad. You do raise a good point about our depth I just don't think it's quite as good as you.

We may well have a dud or two. I also think doak will be great in time but there is no garuantee that will be this season. Unlike some fans I have been a bit disappointed with him.
 
Humpty said:
I don’t agree with that at all. You could make a case that there are maybe one or two teams that have better starting 11’s but in terms of squad depth, which is critical at this level, we are right up there.
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That’s fine, we will agree to disagree. I look at teams like Burnley and Leeds and Sheff Utd and feel their squads are better and deeper…that’s prem and parachute money for you. Maybe, maybe I’ll change my mind if we ever get Lenihan, smith, bangura and other long term players back in the squad
 
BoroMart said:
That’s fine, we will agree to disagree. I look at teams like Burnley and Leeds and Sheff Utd and feel their squads are better and deeper…that’s prem and parachute money for you. Maybe, maybe I’ll change my mind if we ever get Lenihan, smith, bangura and other long term players back in the squad
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Tend to agree with you.
I get where Humpty is coming from though too.

In the end - unless we start scoring some goals it’s all a bit academic.
 
The three relegated teams plus Leeds have better squads than us. Luton have made a poor start and may find it hard to recover. Sunderland and WBA look similar to us too.

We have suffered so far from higher than average injuries (but that could well continue for the rest of the season).

We have started pretty much as I thought - the last three seasons we have started relatively slowly.

The positives for me are a bigger squad this season, and we will not get the negatives (on league form) of a long league cup run that affected our league results in late December, January and February.

Also our overall performances have been better than our results as happened in the early part of the 2023, 2022, 2021 seasons. As shown by expected goals.

I would expect us to have an approximate 1 in 3 chance of promotion.
 
To put it into perspective, i think there are few if any other clubs that could handle the amount of injuries we have suffered.
 
Humpty said:
To put it into perspective, i think there are few if any other clubs that could handle the amount of injuries we have suffered.
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I think we are averaging 8+ first team squad players missing every match at the moment.

Of course smith, Bangura, Lenihan, Howson, fry, Forss have been a constant so far so there’s your first 6 players. Add on to that injuries to Clarke, rav, Engel, McGree, Gilbert and Conway
 
Sheriff_John_Bunnell_ret said:
Everyone says we need a big squad in case of injuries.
We get injuries.
We are doing ***** because of injuries.
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We’re never gonna have like for like quality replacements in the squad and no club can deal with 4 Cbs being injured.

Injuries have had an impact, even if it’s just causing chopping and changing to the first xi
 
I'm not sure the injuries have hurt us that much this season to be honest.

GK -

Dieng been fit every game

Defence -

Ayling has played every minute of every game. Borges has played every minute since he signed. Engel was available before then.
At CB we have had 6 games where we have had a CB partnership of any combination of VDB/Clarke/Edmondson. But goals conceded don't seem a big issue. Dijksteel has been available every game.

Midfield-

Morris and Hackney have been available every game. The one game Barlaser started was a fatigue management decision after Morris had played for USA.

Front 4 -

McGree missed 5 matches.
Conway missed 3 matches
Forss has missed 8 matches
Gilbert missing 6 matches?

Jones, Lath, Azaz, Burgzorg and Hamilton have been available every game. Doak has been available every game since he signed.



The only place we've been really short at any point and had to play someone out of position due to injuries is CB for 3 games. We won 2 of them and drawn 1.

Midfield we've been sound all season.

Front 4, we've missed McGree and Forss from the first team but other than that we've been at all full strength and the squad SHOULD be able to cope with that.

Out of the long term injuries, how many would have been starting?

Fry and Lenihan would struggle to get in now.

Howson wouldn't be a starter although would probably be used off the bench. He maybe would have started against Preston instead of Barlaser.

Engel and Tommy Smith wouldn't be in the first team.

Gilbert was supposedly leaving in the summer on loan and was a last minute decision to keep him. But isn't a first team player.

The injuries are hurting our squad depth but how much are they actually hurting our starting team?
 
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