Second favourites now for promotion

Humpty said:
Would you not expect us to have some of the best xG stats against some of the worst teams in the league? Problem with stats is they need context and the context in our case is that we've only played Sunderland as any team of note and we've fallen short. Tonight's performance will help paint a more clear picture.
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Tbf though (and yes the 2nd half was dreadful) we were even ahead on xG in that game. In fact we have been for all 9 games so far including the 2 in the cup.
 
The data they used to compile xg was from thousands of matches. I don't really think it's very useful for such a small sample of six matches. Some of the models don't even take into account defensive positioning.
 
Humpty said:
Would you not expect us to have some of the best xG stats against some of the worst teams in the league? Problem with stats is they need context and the context in our case is that we've only played Sunderland as any team of note and we've fallen short. Tonight's performance will help paint a more clear picture.
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I'd expect the xG stats to reflect what I've seen with my own eyes, which is utter domination against Derby and Portsmouth and only 1 point due to poor finishing/final ball and two gifted wrapped goals for the opposition. We should have won both of those games on balance of play/chances created/etc. We also could/should have beaten Preston and got something out of the Sunderland game. That's football, you don't always get the result that matches the performance (and it works both ways).
 
Bookies use stats, trends and form when odds compiling.

They will look at the opening to this season as confirming we are able to create more opportunities than our opponents (in every game from a statistical point of view). And this is while we are "playing badly" according to some of our fans.

Playing the odds as they are now - you would expect us to win more than we lose if that holds. No bookmaker is 100% correct, but they use statistics to inform their position and that is why we are second in their eyes currently.
 
Ravshoutsatbeck said:
Bookies use stats, trends and form when odds compiling.

They will look at the opening to this season as confirming we are able to create more opportunities than our opponents (in every game from a statistical point of view). And this is while we are "playing badly" according to some of our fans.

Playing the odds as they are now - you would expect us to win more than we lose if that holds. No bookmaker is 100% correct, but they use statistics to inform their position and that is why we are second in their eyes currently.
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Surely bookies look at what are their liabilities when deciding odds eg which team has most money on them.

This would suggest that Boro and Leeds fans are the most optimistic (foolish?) about their sides promotion choices.

Lets be honest whoever goes up, the bookies will have their book balanced so that they will still make a profit.
 
Ravshoutsatbeck said:
Bookies use stats, trends and form when odds compiling.

They will look at the opening to this season as confirming we are able to create more opportunities than our opponents (in every game from a statistical point of view). And this is while we are "playing badly" according to some of our fans.

Playing the odds as they are now - you would expect us to win more than we lose if that holds. No bookmaker is 100% correct, but they use statistics to inform their position and that is why we are second in their eyes currently.
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There's also the fact that they follow markets of where the bets are placed with them to insure themselves.
Before the season started and even after the first game backing Boro for promotion wouldn't pay big dividends so neutral punters (whilst thinking we'd have a good season) didn't rush to back us.

Then our form results wise became hit and miss and with smaller still amounts of bets being placed on us as a result, the odds improved in terms of risk/reward? Punters looked at our xG and improving payouts and starting laying cash on us to get promoted. The amount of money suddenly being put on Boro then caused the bookies to shorten the odds, to insure themselves again as stated, allied then with our convincing win against Stoke to back up their thinking.
 
WilliamMunny said:
I'd expect the xG stats to reflect what I've seen with my own eyes, which is utter domination against Derby and Portsmouth and only 1 point due to poor finishing/final ball and two gifted wrapped goals for the opposition. We should have won both of those games on balance of play/chances created/etc. We also could/should have beaten Preston and got something out of the Sunderland game. That's football, you don't always get the result that matches the performance (and it works both ways).
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Not entirely an opinion i agree with. You get what you deserve at this level. I think Portsmouth is a prime example of that. We conceded two really poor goals, defensively. It's hard to argue we've utterly dominated an opposition when you concede goals of that nature.
 
Humpty said:
Not entirely an opinion i agree with. You get what you deserve at this level. I think Portsmouth is a prime example of that. We conceded two really poor goals, defensively. It's hard to argue we've utterly dominated an opposition when you concede goals of that nature.
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I think you get what you deserve over a season but not necessarily in a single game.

Major issue being the woeful standard of refs in the champo. They can easily decide a game one way or another through their utter incompetence.
 
Interesting, a couple of decent results in these two tough away games and we can certainly start to think it’s a promotion campaign.
 
Humpty said:
Not entirely an opinion i agree with. You get what you deserve at this level. I think Portsmouth is a prime example of that. We conceded two really poor goals, defensively. It's hard to argue we've utterly dominated an opposition when you concede goals of that nature.
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It's really not hard to argue we utterly dominated the Portsmouth game, when the stats are as follows;

Possession 70.5% v 29.5%
Shots 30 v 7
On target 7 v 3
Corners 15 v 2
Touches in opposition box 67 v 9

Also, here's a direct quote from John Mousinho ".....from the balance of the game Middlesbrough deserved to win it"
 
WilliamMunny said:
It's really not hard to argue we utterly dominated the Portsmouth game, when the stats are as follows;

Possession 70.5% v 29.5%
Shots 30 v 7
On target 7 v 3
Corners 15 v 2
Touches in opposition box 67 v 9

Also, here's a direct quote from John Mousinho ".....from the balance of the game Middlesbrough deserved to win it"
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I suppose it depends on your definition. Having control of the game is useless if hand two goals to the opposition. That's not controlling the game.
 
There's no way we are promotion favourites tonight no matter what the results are.
Leeds are generally around 1/3 or shorter
Boro between 6/4 and 2/1

It's not going to swing that much over one result.

Boro and Burnley are similar odds with most bookies. Some have us slightly shorter, other have Burnley.

Then WBA and Sunderland aren't too far behind at around 2/1.

If WBA beat us tonight they could shorten in slightly and we may lengthen slightly putting them in front of us in the betting but other than that can't see much change happening based on one result this early in the season
 
junos_boots said:
Surely bookies look at what are their liabilities when deciding odds eg which team has most money on them.

This would suggest that Boro and Leeds fans are the most optimistic (foolish?) about their sides promotion choices.

Lets be honest whoever goes up, the bookies will have their book balanced so that they will still make a profit.
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You are correct traditional bookmakers have to do this. However, betfair had a huge influence on bookmakers prices. There isn't a huge amount of money on the top 2 on betfair just 10k.but 60k on promotion.

This isn't made up of fans backing their fancies. It's mostly pro traders and gamblers.
 
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