Russia/Ukraine

At the heart of the conflict in Ukraine are disputed boundaries and ethnic differences. Particularly over Crimea and the Eastern Donbass region (these areas are minority ethnic Ukrainian).

If people don't accept this as a main cause of the conflict, there will be war there for ever and it could escalate into NATO v Russian Federation and China.

If was mentioned by Mutley that Crimea has been Russian then Soviet Union since 1774 that's a very long time in history. Maybe we should ask for the American Colonies we lost in 1783 :) . WW2 history is much more recent in people's memories.

The majority of the people in Crimea are ethnic Russian, some fought the Germans and their allies in 1941/45 in an extremely bitter conflict (approx 20 million losses). Many Cossacks and Tatars fought with the Germans and paid a high price after the war i.e. were killed by Stalin who saw them as traitors. There still is today a mistrust in Russia of Ukrainian Nationalists, because within this Group were many who fought for Hitler in 1941/45. Putin is obviously playing on this to portray himself as Defender of Russian Peoples, when a for ever war suits him to keep him in power until he is old man. Btw Ukrainian Nationalists are not all Ukrainians. I said before its more complex that portrayed in the news we typically see.

There were negotiations before the conflict over how Crimea was governed and access to warm water Sevastopol for the Russian Fleet and agreement, but these broke down over time and Putin encouraged the Eastern Part of Donbass to break way from Ukraine when the Ukraine Government in Kiev said they wanted to join NATO and the EU and thus threaten Russia's use of Sevastopol. Putin increased the price of natural gas to Ukraine then cut off the supply to try to get what he wanted i.e. Ukraine out of NATO and EU. Then he moved into Crimea to secure primarily to protect Sevastopol - it was overkill as he is trying to extend Russian influence too. However the port has been a major naval port for the Russian fleet since 1783 and their only major naval port open all the year round. Its their equivalent of Portsmouth.

I am concerned we are entering a bit of Orwell's 1984 when Winston Smith lived on Oceania, which was in constant war with either Eurasia or Eastasia. None of those Governments wanted realistic peace as war was used as a control mechanism.
 
Redwurzel said:
At the heart of the conflict in Ukraine are disputed boundaries and ethnic differences. Particularly over Crimea and the Eastern Donbass region (these areas are minority ethnic Ukrainian).

If people don't accept this as a main cause of the conflict, there will be war there for ever and it could escalate into NATO v Russian Federation and China.

If was mentioned by Mutley that Crimea has been Russian then Soviet Union since 1774 that's a very long time in history. Maybe we should ask for the American Colonies we lost in 1783 :) . WW2 history is much more recent in people's memories.

The majority of the people in Crimea are ethnic Russian, some fought the Germans and their allies in 1941/45 in an extremely bitter conflict (approx 20 million losses). Many Cossacks and Tatars fought with the Germans and paid a high price after the war i.e. were killed by Stalin who saw them as traitors. There still is today a mistrust in Russia of Ukrainian Nationalists, because within this Group were many who fought for Hitler in 1941/45. Putin is obviously playing on this to portray himself as Defender of Russian Peoples, when a for ever war suits him to keep him in power until he is old man. Btw Ukrainian Nationalists are not all Ukrainians. I said before its more complex that portrayed in the news we typically see.

There were negotiations before the conflict over how Crimea was governed and access to warm water Sevastopol for the Russian Fleet and agreement, but these broke down over time and Putin encouraged the Eastern Part of Donbass to break way from Ukraine when the Ukraine Government in Kiev said they wanted to join NATO and the EU and thus threaten Russia's use of Sevastopol. Putin increased the price of natural gas to Ukraine then cut off the supply to try to get what he wanted i.e. Ukraine out of NATO and EU. Then he moved into Crimea to secure primarily to protect Sevastopol - it was overkill as he is trying to extend Russian influence too. However the port has been a major naval port for the Russian fleet since 1783 and their only major naval port open all the year round. Its their equivalent of Portsmouth.

I am concerned we are entering a bit of Orwell's 1984 when Winston Smith lived on Oceania, which was in constant war with either Eurasia or Eastasia. None of those Governments wanted realistic peace as war was used as a control mechanism.
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This is the very real danger, ongoing long term conflict with massive human and financial costs or potential escalation to something quite catastrophic.

Russia are not just going to give up, this was never going to happen.
 
Redwurzel said:
At the heart of the conflict in Ukraine are disputed boundaries and ethnic differences. Particularly over Crimea and the Eastern Donbass region (these areas are minority ethnic Ukrainian).

If people don't accept this as a main cause of the conflict, there will be war there for ever and it could escalate into NATO v Russian Federation and China.

If was mentioned by Mutley that Crimea has been Russian then Soviet Union since 1774 that's a very long time in history. Maybe we should ask for the American Colonies we lost in 1783 :) . WW2 history is much more recent in people's memories.

The majority of the people in Crimea are ethnic Russian, some fought the Germans and their allies in 1941/45 in an extremely bitter conflict (approx 20 million losses). Many Cossacks and Tatars fought with the Germans and paid a high price after the war i.e. were killed by Stalin who saw them as traitors. There still is today a mistrust in Russia of Ukrainian Nationalists, because within this Group were many who fought for Hitler in 1941/45. Putin is obviously playing on this to portray himself as Defender of Russian Peoples, when a for ever war suits him to keep him in power until he is old man. Btw Ukrainian Nationalists are not all Ukrainians. I said before its more complex that portrayed in the news we typically see.

There were negotiations before the conflict over how Crimea was governed and access to warm water Sevastopol for the Russian Fleet and agreement, but these broke down over time and Putin encouraged the Eastern Part of Donbass to break way from Ukraine when the Ukraine Government in Kiev said they wanted to join NATO and the EU and thus threaten Russia's use of Sevastopol. Putin increased the price of natural gas to Ukraine then cut off the supply to try to get what he wanted i.e. Ukraine out of NATO and EU. Then he moved into Crimea to secure primarily to protect Sevastopol - it was overkill as he is trying to extend Russian influence too. However the port has been a major naval port for the Russian fleet since 1783 and their only major naval port open all the year round. Its their equivalent of Portsmouth.

I am concerned we are entering a bit of Orwell's 1984 when Winston Smith lived on Oceania, which was in constant war with either Eurasia or Eastasia. None of those Governments wanted realistic peace as war was used as a control mechanism.
Click to expand...

Ethnically, Crimea was largely Tartar. But, as with Ukrainians in Donbas and places like Mariupol, they were ethnically cleansed.
The invasion of Donbas was motivated (as with most Russian "interference" elsewhere, like Africa) much more by mineral wealth and resources than ethnicity. The Kremlin mob don't care about people. Power, wealth and imperialism.

I don't see Europe allowing a scrap of the Russian occupied territories to remain under Kremlin control.
 
Redwurzel said:
Isn't the chief mineral mined in the Donbass coal and its mining is seriously declining?
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Not according to Russia's Medevdev

"Medevdev reminded readers that, according to open-source data, the natural resources located in Donbass are estimated to be worth $7.3 trillion. The area is rich in coal, metals, rare-earth elements and other valuable materials, including lithium, he added."
news-pravda.com

Medvedev explains why Kiev and West want Donbass

Ukraine and its sponsors see Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics as a source of money, the former Russian president has said Ukraine is fighting so hard for Donbass because of its vast natural resources, which Kiev and its foreign...
news-pravda.com news-pravda.com

(edit spelling)
 
A lot of articles on minerals in Donbass are about potential not actual. It s very rich in coal which is currently mined, but that is not as valuable as it used to be. The region has a lot of problems with de-industralisation a sort of Teesside with coal mines.

I still think Putin wants Eastern Donbass as a buffer zone from NATO and because its considered certainly in Russia as ethnic Russian. Protecting ethnic Russians was very important to past Czars, Soviet Leaders as well as Putin. Putin's popularity depends on it to some extent.

If the Ukrainian army took the whole of the Eastern Donbass, I think there would be still be conflict there, because of many of the ethnic make up of the area, not wanting to be part of the West (NATO). Russia would be a happy supply base for them for constant civilian/terrorist attacks on Ukrainian Army/Police.

From a Ukraine point of view I would aim the push the Russian Army back to pre 2022 point and negotiate a new Eastern Border in return for stop to the fighting and peace.
 
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I believe the only fear Russia has of NATO is when one of its neighbours joins it removes it from its map of areas to expand in to. There would be no need for the countries to the west of Russia to join NATO if there was no fear of Russian invasion/annexation.
 
SuedeDenimSecretPolice said:
I believe the only fear Russia has of NATO is when one of its neighbours joins it removes it from its map of areas to expand in to. There would be no need for the countries to the west of Russia to join NATO if there was no fear of Russian invasion/annexation.
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I believe that Russia is very wary of Nato and CIA and other intelligence service activity, which it will equate with NATO.
 
Redwurzel said:
A lot of articles on minerals in Donbass are about potential not actual. It s very rich in coal which is currently mined, but that is not as valuable as it used to be. The region has a lot of problems with de-industralisation a sort of Teesside with coal mines.

I still think Putin wants Eastern Donbass as a buffer zone from NATO and because its considered certainly in Russia as ethnic Russian. Protecting ethnic Russians was very important to past Czars, Soviet Leaders as well as Putin. Putin's popularity depends on it to some extent.

If the Ukrainian army took the whole of the Eastern Donbass, I think there would be still be conflict there, because of many of the ethnic make up of the area, not wanting to be part of the West (NATO). Russia would be a happy supply base for them for constant civilian/terrorist attacks on Ukrainian Army/Police.

From an Ukraine point of view I would aim the push the Russian Army back to pre 2022 point and negotiate a new Eastern Border in return for stop to the fighting and peace.
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Surely back to 1991- and then massive reparations can be discussed
 
Redwurzel said:
A lot of articles on minerals in Donbass are about potential not actual. It s very rich in coal which is currently mined, but that is not as valuable as it used to be. The region has a lot of problems with de-industralisation a sort of Teesside with coal mines.

I still think Putin wants Eastern Donbass as a buffer zone from NATO and because its considered certainly in Russia as ethnic Russian. Protecting ethnic Russians was very important to past Czars, Soviet Leaders as well as Putin. Putin's popularity depends on it to some extent.

If the Ukrainian army took the whole of the Eastern Donbass, I think there would be still be conflict there, because of many of the ethnic make up of the area, not wanting to be part of the West (NATO). Russia would be a happy supply base for them for constant civilian/terrorist attacks on Ukrainian Army/Police.

From a Ukraine point of view I would aim the push the Russian Army back to pre 2022 point and negotiate a new Eastern Border in return for stop to the fighting and peace.
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I provided a map of mineral resources upthread.
The resources are there. Factual. The data is gathered by mining companies and geologists who do not deal with maybes. They drill.
It's why Bakhmut and Soledar were so highly prized by the Russians.
Russia doesn't go to war for people. It's power, wealth and resources every time.
 
The issue with the EU is that there are defence ties up such as Eurofighter jets. I am not saying EU is a threat, but its a perceived threat in Russia.

NATO is the bigger perceived threat to Russia.

I am not sure the threat is true, but it is perceived to be true by Russians in power. Remember Russian thinking is framed by very painful past invasions from the West.

Ukraine asked to join NATO in 2008 or before i.e. before the current conflict.

btw I post on this thread to provide some balance and insight.
 
Redwurzel said:
The issue with the EU is that there are defence ties up such as Eurofighter jets. I am not saying EU is a threat, but its a perceived threat in Russia.

NATO is the bigger perceived threat to Russia.

I am not sure the threat is true, but it is perceived to be true by Russians in power. Remember Russian thinking is framed by very painful past invasions from the West.

Ukraine asked to join NATO in 2008 or before i.e. before the current conflict.

btw I post on this thread to provide some balance and insight.
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What involvement has the EU had in the development of the eurofighter? Surely that's NATO again, and nothing to do with the EU
 
BoroMart said:
What involvement has the EU had in the development of the eurofighter? Surely that's NATO again, and nothing to do with the EU
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Yup, It was more just UK, Germany and Spain and Italy really, was kept separate from NATO as far as I recall. Was similar to Panavia with the Tornado which was UK, Germany and Italy.

French were involved early doors but backed out and made the Rafale instead.

UK pretty much did cockpit and avionics etc, Germans the airframe and Italians and Spanish did a wing each from what I remember.

We ordered too many, and they ended up quite good (after initial teething problems) so we didn't need as many, so sold loads to Saudi, about 200 I think but think that changed since and some went to Qatar and Kuwait and have been offered to others outside of NATO. I'm not sure if NATO would have wanted them sold to Saudi tbf.

I don't think the ones outside of the original 4 or NATO get the same tech, but it's still good.

Might have been a good choice for Ukraine to buy as they would **** all over anything which the Russians have (and the F16 too), which works, but probably too expensive. Typooon was about £70m I think, probably north of £100m now.
 
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Andy_W said:
Yup, It was more just UK, Germany and Spain and Italy really, was kept separate from NATO as far as I recall. Was similar to Panavia with the Tornado which was UK, Germany and Italy.

French were involved early doors but backed out and made the Rafale instead.

UK pretty much did cockpit and avionics etc, Germans the airframe and Italians and Spanish did a wing each from what I remember.

We ordered too many, and they ended up quite good (after initial teething problems) so we didn't need as many, so sold loads to Saudi, about 200 I think but think that changed since and some went to Qatar and Kuwait and have been offered to others outside of NATO. I'm not sure if NATO would have wanted them sold to Saudi tbf.

I don't think the ones outside of the original 4 or NATO get the same tech, but it's still good.

Might have been a good choice for Ukraine to buy as they would **** all over anything which the Russians have (and the F16 too), which works, but probably too expensive. Typooon was about £70m I think, probably north of £100m now.
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More than I knew on the subject, but the key point is, it was nowt to do with the EU
 
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