PMQ was a blast today

Nano said:
Labour have a lead because Johnson keeps shooting himself in the face. There is a very big difference between people wanting to vote for Starmer and people wanting to vote against Johnson. I know Corbyn had plenty of people that didn't hate him but he had a lot of people that wanted to vote for him (and so did Johnson). I don't think Starmer does. You can still win elections that way but if the Tories can switch leaders to someone that can distance themselves from Johnson's regime then that lead might disappear.

Also, being the highest they've been in the polls for 8 years is mostly meaningless because they haven't been in a position where they would win an election for about 15 years. Don't forget that since the rise of the SNP that Labour need a significant increase in seats to gain a majority because they get none in Scotland anymore.

The reason people say that Labour should be streets ahead in the polls is because we have had endless incompetence, corruption and lies from Johnson and his team. Every chance he gets he scores an own goal so Labour should be comfortably ahead. They probably are ahead but a GE tomorrow might not even give them a majority.
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They might not need a majority if they get the most seats and form a progressive coalition with SNP/LD/Greens and then bring in PR and consign the Tories to history for ever. *wakes up*
 
MolteniArcore said:
I see it as such:

1. Johnson now (as usual) will start throwing money from the magic money tree at the Cost of Living Crisis to appease his MP's and garner support. This will include bringing forward the tax threshold rise, maybe a cut in fuel VAT and some other tax thing to benefit business. Non of this will change the public perception enough to boost his approval ratings.

2. The two by-elections will be lost. Pressure will mount.

3. He surely can't call a GE after 2 by-election defeats so he'll plod on until the Privileges Committee findings. If they find that he misled the house he'll resign, if not he'll carry on. If he doesn't resign the 1922 will change the rules and they will hold another confidence vote. He will then be kicked out. The new leader could well then call a GE.

That's the only way I see a GE being called. It would be suicide for the Tories to throw away their majority early going into a GE with Johnson as leader.

But despite what Johnson does there is nothing he can now do to significantly improve his popularity. He's played all his cards and it can only get worse for him. After all they have just backed Ukraine and spent £37b on Cost Of Living help and it has barely changed his polling. He's done.
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You are right it would be suicide to call a GE now. Thing is the pcp have no say in it, Johnson alone can trigger an election. If he feels that's his only option of clinging to power he may well do that and damn the party.
 
The undoing for that idiot Johnson will be when (if) he calls a vote on amending the NI protocol. He has yet to seek the correct legal opinion (some of his disciples have said it's okay), and it will be a great opportunity for the 'No confidence' brigade to vote against the government due to the legality of the amendment.
 
Laughing said:
You are right it would be suicide to call a GE now. Thing is the pcp have no say in it, Johnson alone can trigger an election. If he feels that's his only option of clinging to power he may well do that and damn the party.
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Yes, and he has no loyalty to the party so would be quite happy bringing them down if it was his last option. Quite exciting really! :D
 
Japsi said:
The undoing for that idiot Johnson will be when (if) he calls a vote on amending the NI protocol. He has yet to seek the correct legal opinion (some of his disciples have said it's okay), and it will be a great opportunity for the 'No confidence' brigade to vote against the government due to the legality of the amendment.
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I can't see anyway that gets through parliament. A trade war with the EU will cause so much suffering it should be unthinkable for any right minded politician of any rosette
 
Muttley said:
The problem for the Tories is Johnson is pretty much the only "unifying" leader. He has expunged the competent moderate centre from them as they lurched right to grab the UKIP votes. Johnson's problem is that any policy that does not command the support of the full party could result in defeat in the HoC as the centre or right abstain or vote against the government. This was what finished May and Thatcher and it will finish him. I suspect he'll call a GE and try to fight it on Brexit again. Possibly as early as this autumn.
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I think that would work against him in conservative strongholds if the competent tories stand as independent against them. Would give people a genuine alternative and potential to split any Labour vote
 
GazC_MFC said:
I think that would work against him in conservative strongholds if the competent tories stand as independent against them. Would give people a genuine alternative and potential to split any Labour vote
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I doubt that a "competent Tory" candidate would do anything other than split the Tory vote, yes you might get some floating voters but it would be far more damaging to the Cons than Labour.
I'm hoping that we get a Tory out pact between Lib Dems and Labour with a promise of electoral reform to give PR. We would never have a government like this again and finish the Tories for a generation.
 
MolteniArcore said:
F I see it as such:

1. Johnson now (as usual) will start throwing money from the magic money tree at the Cost of Living Crisis to appease his MP's and garner support. This will include bringing forward the tax threshold rise, maybe a cut in fuel VAT and some other tax thing to benefit business. Non of this will change the public perception enough to boost his approval ratings.

2. The two by-elections will be lost. Pressure will mount.

3. He surely can't call a GE after 2 by-election defeats so he'll plod on until the Privileges Committee findings. If they find that he misled the house he'll resign, if not he'll carry on. If he doesn't resign the 1922 will change the rules and they will hold another confidence vote. He will then be kicked out. The new leader could well then call a GE.

That's the only way I see a GE being called. It would be suicide for the Tories to throw away their majority early going into a GE with Johnson as leader.

But despite what Johnson does there is nothing he can now do to significantly improve his popularity. He's played all his cards and it can only get worse for him. After all they have just backed Ukraine and spent £37b on Cost Of Living help and it has barely changed his polling. He's done.
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And like I said the other day
The tories, I believe know they are in a dark place because Johnson is hated and yet if they change leaders no one who is a brexiteer can navigate through the NI issue without joining the single market again. A brexiteer wouldn’t do that
A remain leaning leader wouldn’t get the support needed given they have a bunch of hardline brexiteer mps
That’s why they have an existential crisis in their party of their own making that’s going to rip them apart
 
Ex Footy Legs said:
And like I said the other day
The tories, I believe know they are in a dark place because Johnson is hated and yet if they change leaders no one who is a brexiteer can navigate through the NI issue without joining the single market again. A brexiteer wouldn’t do that
A remain leaning leader wouldn’t get the support needed given they have a bunch of hardline brexiteer mps
That’s why they have an existential crisis in their party of their own making that’s going to rip them apart
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It's good isn't it:D
 
Laughing said:
I didn't understand that either jam
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I took that to mean that Labour’s convoluted policy at the 2019 election allowed the Tories to strongly sell themselves as the only party which would deliver Brexit, compared to 2017 when Labour said they would honour the referendum result.
 
HolgateCorner said:
I took that to mean that Labour’s convoluted policy at the 2019 election allowed the Tories to strongly sell themselves as the only party which would deliver Brexit, compared to 2017 when Labour said they would honour the referendum result.
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That makes sense and it's difficult to argue with.
 
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