PMQ was a blast today

[HolgateCorner]

I know. Forgive me, as it is a rather crackers thing to say.

But I don't trust in the polls. I am just saying, it really would not be a shock to me if Johnson lasted longer than Thatcher. I hope to be pleasantly surprised, that he doesn't and in the coming by-elections, the Tories take a pasting as well.

We'll see what happens. Drag my post up after the next GE

We need PR to ensure a debacle Tory government can never gain full power again, this country really cannot afford the likes of Johnson again.

 

[HolgateCorner]

People who give the line ‘should be miles ahead in the polls’ really doenst understand politics

Even when Blair destroyed the Tories in 1997 they still got 31% of the vote which is the same as they are polling now.

 

[breakthewallsdown]

If a GE were called now, Labour would not win it.

Yes they would, comfortably as well.

 

[Cosmonaut]

Yes they would, comfortably as well.

Hope you're right, come the time it happens. Still, a chance Starmer may not be facing Johnson .. if that pathetic 'beergate' thing comes to a conclusion that Labour was not hoping for once the investigation is done.

Or if, as some believe that Johnson won't last the next few months (I don't believe that) then there could be someone else facing Sir Keir. The likes of Penny Mordant, are names you read as being frontrunners .. I can't decide if a change in leader for the Conservatives is a good or bad thing for Labour in that case. As it's too hard to tell whoever takes over would rescue their decline and if they'd be able to get the undecided voters' confidence back on their side that they are a party that takes Governing the country seriously, they care about the population and has a genuine concern for the quality of every single person's daily living in this country, things might get tricky.

Perhaps the fat idiot in no.10 is best where he is considering above as we know that no matter what their next leader pitches, they're all liars. I just hope folk aren't sucked into it so easily if it happens.

 

[Ex Footy Legs]

Brexit has only been delivered in name only.

Did anyone see the jacob young question about the dredging catastrophe on the redcar coastline?
He talked about compensation for fishermen and NOT ABOUT THE REAL ISSUE OF CHEMICAL POLLUTION!!!
Absolute TORY Corruption because this dredging ruining our coastline could interrupt corrupt Freeport’s and so called brexit opportunities!!!

Are the dead shellfish littering our beaches evidence of a toxic waste cover-up? | George Monbiot

Environmentalists fear a toxic disaster is occurring on the seabed, and the government denials seem less and less plausible, says Guardian columnist George Monbiot

www.theguardian.com

 

[El Guapo]

If Starmer was anything like acceptapable he would be miles ahead , if this lot ar so bad he would be peeing it ??. he has had years to get into BJ , but is at best a few points ahead , sadly i feel he has to push policies because people do not trust them when they criticise ...but never offer a alternative policy.............he is just bland , no passion , had hopes for him , but by god what has he done !!!!!

Gordon Strachan had passion, Southgate was ‘bland’ in comparison. I know who I’d rather have managing my football team (To use an analogy).

‘What has he done?’ - what can he currently do against an 80 seat majority apart from pick the PM and the Tories apart and lay bare their lies, corruption and incompetence? Until a GE is called there is no real point in getting into policy detail and starting the charge. The wider electorate would forget it all by the next day.

This isn’t aimed directly at you, it’s just my general thoughts, but I wish the people of this country could think longer term and had more depth of intelligence than Love island, whatever shore, soaps and Strictly come whatever on whichever surface someone has’talent’.

 

[Chris_Boro]

I honestly don't know what some people expect at PMQ's, Starmer to jump over the dispatch box and drop kick Johnson?

The majority of questions Starmer asks would be "knockout blows" to any PM that actually has any form of integrity or honesty.

Johnson doesn't answer any question and just throws out the same slurs and lies which make the whole thing pointless. Despite all the above, Starmer still manages to get under his skin, turning him into a red face blob of custard.

Everything Starmer is doing now is not even aimed at Johnson, its for the back benches, to make them more and more embarrassed to have such a pathetic leader wasting an 80 seat majority.

Also, if polls were so untrustworthy and the Tories would win another General Election then right now we would be having a GE.

 

[MolteniArcore]

I have absolutely no confidence whatsoever in Sir Keir Starmer. If a GE were called now, Labour would not win it. I honestly am confident saying that and it pains me to say it as a Labour voter. Any opposition should be surging ahead of this cringe-fest.

EDIT - cc @Benjiboy

What do you class as surging ahead?



3 months after the 2019 general election Labour were 22 points behind the Tories, now they are 6 points ahead - a 28 point swing. On the 29th October 2019, when the Tories announced the election they were polling at 38%... Labour now are polling at 39%.

In an election campaign who do we think would come off worst? Labour? Or the Tories with Partygate, Cost of Living Crisis, Inflation, The lies etc...

When you look at where Labour started from and where they are now - especially when they haven't really announced any policies as such - they are in a pretty decent position. And all under Starmer's watch.

You might not like him, fair enough, but the argument that Labour are somehow failing because they aren't 20 points clear is a flawed one. A 28 point swing and now being ahead in the polls is a result. Remember many people said Starmer couldn't get Labour re-elected in one term... it looks like now he has a chance to do just that.

(Source - Politico: https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/)

 

[Laughing]

You raise a good point molteni. In 2019 it was widely thought that Labour could not bridge the gap with the tories in a single term. It was unheard of. 2.5 years later they have not only bridged it but leapt ahead and have been consistently infront for months.

People may not like Starmer, not so keen myself but he is labour's best chance at the moment.

One poster complained that starmer hadn't revealed any policies, which firstly isn't entirely true. They then go on to say that he wouldn't be extreme enough. You can't have it both ways.

A tory change of leader bounce. Yup they would get a slight bounce if they changed leadership. That wouldn't change inflation, cost of living, energy crisis, nhs underfunding and brexit. Nor would it change the civil war in the tory party

 

[MolteniArcore]

Just another quick point... Labour haven't enjoyed such a lead in the polls for 8 years. I'd maybe not listen to the Tories, Tory leaning media or your working class Tory mate down the pub that Labour are doing terribly...

Yes, they do need to push on now and over the next 6 months they need to push some policies and continue to hold Johnson to account but with two by-elections coming up and the Standards Committee findings out in Autumn they are in a good place.

 

[Muttley]

A tory change of leader bounce. Yup they would get a slight bounce if they changed leadership. That wouldn't change inflation, cost of living, energy crisis, nhs underfunding and brexit. Nor would it change the civil war in the tory party

The problem for the Tories is Johnson is pretty much the only "unifying" leader. He has expunged the competent moderate centre from them as they lurched right to grab the UKIP votes. Johnson's problem is that any policy that does not command the support of the full party could result in defeat in the HoC as the centre or right abstain or vote against the government. This was what finished May and Thatcher and it will finish him. I suspect he'll call a GE and try to fight it on Brexit again. Possibly as early as this autumn.

 

[Laughing]

The problem for the Tories is Johnson is pretty much the only "unifying" leader. He has expunged the competent moderate centre from them as they lurched right to grab the UKIP votes. Johnson's problem is that any policy that does not command the support of the full party could result in defeat in the HoC as the centre or right abstain or vote against the government. This was what finished May and Thatcher and it will finish him. I suspect he'll call a GE and try to fight it on Brexit again. Possibly as early as this autumn.

I tend to agree that there may well be an GE this year. For me he has only 2 options that I can see. Unify the party wit a charm offensive. Convince his backbenchers that he can get the public back on side and by the next election he can win it again. I think this option won't work, there is still too much crap coming down the track. Privilege's committee, by-election and pandemic report. His second option is to call a GE and hope he can win over the british people. If he can do that his entire party will unite behind him.

I also agree that there are very few members of the tory party that can unite them. If you are a remainer, large parts of the party just won't support you. The brexit mob all seem talentless. This division probably comes from the fact that they are a remain party, hijacked by johnson on a brexit ticket.

I think they are largely stuffed.

 

[Nano]

Labour have a lead because Johnson keeps shooting himself in the face. There is a very big difference between people wanting to vote for Starmer and people wanting to vote against Johnson. I know Corbyn had plenty of people that didn't hate him but he had a lot of people that wanted to vote for him (and so did Johnson). I don't think Starmer does. You can still win elections that way but if the Tories can switch leaders to someone that can distance themselves from Johnson's regime then that lead might disappear.

Also, being the highest they've been in the polls for 8 years is mostly meaningless because they haven't been in a position where they would win an election for about 15 years. Don't forget that since the rise of the SNP that Labour need a significant increase in seats to gain a majority because they get none in Scotland anymore.

The reason people say that Labour should be streets ahead in the polls is because we have had endless incompetence, corruption and lies from Johnson and his team. Every chance he gets he scores an own goal so Labour should be comfortably ahead. They probably are ahead but a GE tomorrow might not even give them a majority.

 

[MolteniArcore]

Labour have a lead because Johnson keeps shooting himself in the face. There is a very big difference between people wanting to vote for Starmer and people wanting to vote against Johnson. I know Corbyn had plenty of people that didn't hate him but he had a lot of people that wanted to vote for him (and so did Johnson). I don't think Starmer does. You can still win elections that way but if the Tories can switch leaders to someone that can distance themselves from Johnson's regime then that lead might disappear.

Also, being the highest they've been in the polls for 8 years is mostly meaningless because they haven't been in a position where they would win an election for about 15 years. Don't forget that since the rise of the SNP that Labour need a significant increase in seats to gain a majority because they get none in Scotland anymore.

The reason people say that Labour should be streets ahead in the polls is because we have had endless incompetence, corruption and lies from Johnson and his team. Every chance he gets he scores an own goal so Labour should be comfortably ahead. They probably are ahead but a GE tomorrow might not even give them a majority.

Ah, I see. Labour's 28 point swing and current lead in the polls is all Johnson's doing. Starmer has probably stifled the true position. Maybe if Corbyn / Miliband / Raynor / Nandy / Burnham was leader labour would be 20 points clear. Heck they would have probably forced an election by now and be in power!!

 

[Nano]

Ah, I see. Labour's 28 point swing and current lead in the polls is all Johnson's doing. Starmer has probably stifled the true position. Maybe if Corbyn / Miliband / Raynor / Nandy / Burnham was leader labour would be 20 points clear. Heck they would have probably forced an election by now and be in power!!

No, that's not what I said. There is a default position that Labour would be in whoever was in charge and the majority of that swing would have happened because of the actions of the government. A leader then raises or lowers that position based on their own support. I just don't think Starmer is adding much support to the default position. I don't think he's losing support or anything but I am not seeing the groundswell of support for him that Corbyn got. I doubt he's going to get many people chanting his name at Glastonbury for example. Corbyn had a lot of people that actively wouldn't vote for him as well so he wasn't perfect.

We know Corbyn was under constant attack from the media and Starmer isn't which means that the right-wing probably aren't too concerned with him being PM like they would have been with Corbyn. Ideally a Corbyn type leader without all of the background controversies that were used against him could be found. Not sure if that person exists though.

 

[MolteniArcore]

I tend to agree that there may well be an GE this year. For me he has only 2 options that I can see. Unify the party wit a charm offensive. Convince his backbenchers that he can get the public back on side and by the next election he can win it again. I think this option won't work, there is still too much crap coming down the track. Privilege's committee, by-election and pandemic report. His second option is to call a GE and hope he can win over the british people. If he can do that his entire party will unite behind him.

I also agree that there are very few members of the tory party that can unite them. If you are a remainer, large parts of the party just won't support you. The brexit mob all seem talentless. This division probably comes from the fact that they are a remain party, hijacked by johnson on a brexit ticket.

I think they are largely stuffed.

I see it as such:

1. Johnson now (as usual) will start throwing money from the magic money tree at the Cost of Living Crisis to appease his MP's and garner support. This will include bringing forward the tax threshold rise, maybe a cut in fuel VAT and some other tax thing to benefit business. Non of this will change the public perception enough to boost his approval ratings.

2. The two by-elections will be lost. Pressure will mount.

3. He surely can't call a GE after 2 by-election defeats so he'll plod on until the Privileges Committee findings. If they find that he misled the house he'll resign, if not he'll carry on. If he doesn't resign the 1922 will change the rules and they will hold another confidence vote. He will then be kicked out. The new leader could well then call a GE.

That's the only way I see a GE being called. It would be suicide for the Tories to throw away their majority early going into a GE with Johnson as leader.

But despite what Johnson does there is nothing he can now do to significantly improve his popularity. He's played all his cards and it can only get worse for him. After all they have just backed Ukraine and spent £37b on Cost Of Living help and it has barely changed his polling. He's done.

 

[Connor_loft]

Ideally a Corbyn type leader without all of the background controversies that were used against him could be found. Not sure if that person exists though.

This has Andy Burnham written all over this! I’m a huge fan of Rayner, Reeves and Streeting as well.

 

[MolteniArcore]

We know Corbyn was under constant attack from the media and Starmer isn't which means that the right-wing probably aren't too concerned with him being PM like they would have been with Corbyn. Ideally a Corbyn type leader without all of the background controversies that were used against him could be found. Not sure if that person exists though.

I think you'll find that Starmer, since the 22nd April, has been the target of the whole right wing press regarding Beergate. It is still mentioned in every single interview with a Labour MP on TV and despite this polling for Labour is on the up.

 

[MolteniArcore]

This has Andy Burnham written all over this! I’m a huge fan of Rayner, Reeves and Streeting as well.

Durham Police need to get a move on because if they fine him Burnham could be shoehorned into Wakefield, elected and then appointed as Leader!

But I can't see them announcing anything this side of the election as surely it would be considered political.

 

[Nano]

I think you'll find that Starmer, since the 22nd April, has been the target of the whole right wing press regarding Beergate. It is still mentioned in every single interview with a Labour MP on TV and despite this polling for Labour is on the up.

Of course they have but that is anti-Labour as much as anti-Starmer. It's hardly digging into the past to find photos of him shaking hands with terrorists etc. Starmer is an inoffensive choice for the right and a safe choice for Labour. He isn't a vote-winner though. Maybe we'll see something different come election time and he will become one but right now he just seems bland. There would definitely be worse choices and I can't see him ever scoring the own goals that Johnson (or Corbyn) have.