Performance vs Wage Spend

[Ravshoutsatbeck]

I've said this a number of times.

But we are close to the highest paying teams outside of the prem/parachute clubs.

This leaves us with a par performance of somewhere between 4th and 10th in championship.

Which is also about where we fall as far as average attendance.

Therefore I am not unhappy with falling into those positions. If everyone falls right we could get promoted - should not be at danger of falling to league 1.

 

[atypical_boro]

I've said this a number of times.

But we are close to the highest paying teams outside of the prem/parachute clubs.

This leaves us with a par performance of somewhere between 4th and 10th in championship.

Which is also about where we fall as far as average attendance.

Therefore I am not unhappy with falling into those positions. If everyone falls right we could get promoted - should not be at danger of falling to league 1.

Exactly this and is why I think we should keep the current structure for as long as possible unless we need someone to rescue us from relegation trouble.

If we never drop to those levels, we’ll get promoted eventually, unless we keep sacking managers and starting all over again each time.

 

[Ravshoutsatbeck]

Exactly this and is why I think we should keep the current structure for as long as possible unless we need someone to rescue us from relegation trouble.

If we never drop to those levels, we’ll get promoted eventually, unless we keep sacking managers and starting all over again each time.

That's my feeling.

Consistency and hoping for an outlier up run of form that gets you promoted.

You then continue the same idea in the prem. And if you come down you hope to be a few places better off in the likely finish category.

Slow play the odds.

It's how I play black jack... £2 every hand, always play the odds, you should be slightly up life long.

 

[changingman]

My thoughts too. If we get the recruitment side right and sell assets when their value is high we should be able to continually reinvest and improve the team.

Obviously the manager plays a part but as I've said before I don't think he's hugely over or underperforming currently. Id say a three year cycle should be fair to judge and as such id be reviewing progress at the end of next season (his third full season).

 

[indeedido]

The last season where there is near full published accounts is 2022-23 season. 23/24 clubs in the league that season have published their accounts, only Reading have not yet done so.
This should provide some clarity.

5 of the clubs in 2022-23 were receiving Parachute Payments. 2 were promoted. 3 were miles away from competing.
They had the 5 biggest wage bills in the league that season:
1. Norwich City £56.4m. Pre Tax loss £27.2m. Turnover £75.6m. Finished 13th. £3.6m profit on player sales (Kept squad) Still had PP in 23/24 but not now.
2. Burnley £53.7m. Pre Tax loss £36.0m. Turnover £64.9m. Finished 1st. £11.4m profit on player sales.
3. Watford £48.7m. Pre Tax Profit £24.1m. Turnover £66.2m. Finished 11th. £59.2m profit on player sales. Still had PP in 23/24 but not now.
4. Sheff Utd £48.2m. Pre Tax loss £31.5m. Turnover £63.9m. Finished 2nd. £4.4m profit on player sales.
5. West Brom £45.9m. Pre Tax loss £11.0m. Turnover £56.7m. Finished 9th. £6.5m profit on player sales. End of PP's

6. Middlesbrough £29.6m. Pre Tax loss £6.4m. Turnover £28.6m. Finished 4th. £22.3m profit on player sales.
7. Stoke £28.2m. Pre Tax loss £11.1m. Turnover £31.2m. Finished 16th. £15.3m profit on player sales.
8. Birmingham £27.6m. Pre Tax loss £25.4m. Turnover £19.0m Finished 17th. £2.1m profit on player sales.
9. Luton Town £27.6m (inc big promotion bonuses). Pre Tax loss £16.3m. Turnover £18.4m. Finished 3rd. £4.7m profit on player sales.
10. Bristol City £26.3m. Pre Tax loss £19.5m. Turnover £18.6m. Finished 14th. £9.5m profit on player sales
11. Blackburn £25.8m. Pre Tax loss £20.9m. Turnover £21.0m. Finished 7th. £0.3m profit on player sales.
12. QPR £25.4m. Pre Tax loss £20.3m. Turnover £23.3m. Finished 20th. £1.0m profit on player sales.

13. Sunderland £25.3m. Pre Tax loss £9.7m. Turnover £35.1m. Finished 6th. £0.3m profit on player sales.

Factually we had comfortably the 6th highest wage bill.
There was also only 1 club who made more profit from player sales to supplement revenue; Watford, who stunningly failed.

The other 3 teams to make the playoffs all had smaller wage bills than ours and dwarfed by the PP clubs.

3rd Luton was £2m lower and 9th in the wage bill league, despite the massive promotion bonuses.
5th Coventry was £11.1m lower at £18.5m and 22nd in the wage bill league.
6th Sunderland was £4.3m lower at £25.3m and 13th in the wage bill league.

Rotherham stayed up despite their wage bill £10.4m being £13m lower than Wigan who went down.
QPR finished 20th with a higher wage bill than Sunderland.

EVERY Championship club lost money in 22/23 season, barring Watford who sold their stars.
The combined pre-tax losses of the 22 clubs exc Reading (not published) and Watford, was £322.7m or £14.7m each. We lost £6.4m or under 2% of the leagues losses.
The 4 PP clubs other than Watford lost £105.7m or 33% of the whole league's loss.

5 PP clubs had wage bills £46-56m
15 clubs had wage bills between £20-30m, over half of them between £23-26m
3 clubs had wage bills below £19m.
Reading is unpublished, but wage bill was £25.3m the year before. i.e. 2021-22 season where they lost £17.3m.

Gibson had us very competitive that season and the financial management of the club and of FFP was excellent.

Only 4 clubs have published for season 2023-24, so no conclusions can be drawn on last season, let alone this one.
We know Leicester, Southampton and Leeds were relegated with PP's for 23-24.
We also know West Brom and Norwich had their final year of PP's, so we can expect those 5 clubs to have had higher wage bills than us last season.
Norwich have published for 23-24 and their wage bill was down to £51.8m. They lost £14.4m despite making a £13.4m profit from player sales. They failed yet again to use their advantage in scraping the play offs and stinking them out.
Preston have published too and their wage bill was slightly up at £22.0m. They tread water as usual.
Hull have also published and their wage bill rose £6m to £29.6m and they lost £18.8m, despite making £8.3m profit on player sales. They missed the play offs.
Middlesbrough increased their wage bill to £31.4m, lost £12.4m, despite another huge £17.1m profit from player sales. We regressed and missed the play offs.

Nobody knows, but I'd confidently predict that only the 5 PP clubs again had a bigger wage budget than us last season.
Again Ipswich's accounts aren't published for 23-24, but the wage bill for the previous promotion season were £19.8m. Only promotion bonuses will have swelled their 23-24 wage bill higher than ours if that.


My thoughts:

Parachute Payments lead to higher wages, but not always success. How those squads are churned and used is at least as critical.
Staff costs are not as varied outside the PP clubs as people think, and there is little to no correlation between rank of staff costs and finishing position - at least in the most recent season we have the facts for.
Every Championship club loses shed loads of money, every season.
The biggest factors in enabling a competitive wage budget and amortisation (signings) scope, are turnover and the profit generated from players sales.
Gibson is driving both. The prices he asks are needed to boost revenue, but why he tolerates the merchandising ***show is beyond me.
His policy to trade players is working, as they've made c£40m profit from player sales in the last 2 published seasons.
He is providing budgets to get the club into the top 6. Even if the PP clubs perform, he should still expect 6th. That they often don't perform means he should expect better than 6th, especially looking at Ipswich and Luton.
He can't provide PP club levels of wage budget, even with this transfer profit, because he couldn't keep us P&S/FFP compliant with additional spend.
The club continue to make big losses, despite driving revenue, and profiting on player sales. Gibson still has to finance this.

He needs a break, some luck.
He needs his manager to perform.

 

[indeedido]

Exactly this and is why I think we should keep the current structure for as long as possible unless we need someone to rescue us from relegation trouble.

If we never drop to those levels, we’ll get promoted eventually, unless we keep sacking managers and starting all over again each time.

I think this is nonsense. Why on earth will we get promoted eventually?
We sacked Warnock and Wilder finished 7th.
We sacked Wilder and Carrick finished 4th.

My thoughts too. If we get the recruitment side right and sell assets when their value is high we should be able to continually reinvest and improve the team.

Obviously the manager plays a part but as I've said before I don't think he's hugely over or underperforming currently. Id say a three year cycle should be fair to judge and as such id be reviewing progress at the end of next season (his third full season).

The manager plays a massive part.
Bad managers at PP clubs fail to use their budgets and bomb (see Norwich, Watford, even West Brom...and us under Monk/pulis)
Good managers at non PP clubs can make a massive difference (like at Luton, Ipswich, and us under Karanka)
Getting Coventry, Sunderland and Luton into the play offs were all about the managers and collective, not their budgets.
Carrick will have had a 3 year cycle at the end of this season. Time to judge him is then, not just carry on regardless.

The recruitment is generating profit and squad value above book, but that's not the same as improving the team. The manager needs to ensure that happens, the team is his responsibility.

 

[ForssAwakens]

I think this is nonsense. Why on earth will we get promoted eventually?
We sacked Warnock and Wilder finished 7th.
We sacked Wilder and Carrick finished 4th.


The manager plays a massive part.
Bad managers at PP clubs fail to use their budgets and bomb (see Norwich, Watford, even West Brom...and us under Monk/pulis)
Good managers at non PP clubs can make a massive difference (like at Luton, Ipswich, and us under Karanka)
Getting Coventry, Sunderland and Luton into the play offs were all about the managers and collective, not their budgets.
Carrick will have had a 3 year cycle at the end of this season. Time to judge him is then, not just carry on regardless.

The recruitment is generating profit and squad value above book, but that's not the same as improving the team. The manager needs to ensure that happens, the team is his responsibility.

The recruitment is generating a profit from the coaching from head coach and his staff from said recruitment

 

[atypical_boro]

I think this is nonsense. Why on earth will we get promoted eventually?
We sacked Warnock and Wilder finished 7th.
We sacked Wilder and Carrick finished 4th.

What’s your point? That sacking managers doesn’t achieve promotion?

TBF, I’ve only ever known you support Karanka for longer than about a year in the entire time you’ve used this board. Generally, you’re someone who gets bored of managers very quickly. We have plenty of fans the same though, as do most clubs nowadays.

 

[changingman]

I think this is nonsense. Why on earth will we get promoted eventually?
We sacked Warnock and Wilder finished 7th.
We sacked Wilder and Carrick finished 4th.


The manager plays a massive part.
Bad managers at PP clubs fail to use their budgets and bomb (see Norwich, Watford, even West Brom...and us under Monk/pulis)
Good managers at non PP clubs can make a massive difference (like at Luton, Ipswich, and us under Karanka)
Getting Coventry, Sunderland and Luton into the play offs were all about the managers and collective, not their budgets.
Carrick will have had a 3 year cycle at the end of this season. Time to judge him is then, not just carry on regardless.

The recruitment is generating profit and squad value above book, but that's not the same as improving the team. The manager needs to ensure that happens, the team is his responsibility.

Agree with that, although he will have actually had 2.5 seasons at the end of this year (hence three full seasons at the end of next).

In terms of objectives when he arrived I think it was probably a free hit. Don't forget we were at real risk of being relegated when he arrived.

 

[Ex Footy Legs]

How well are Sunderland doing?

Yawn fest is back

 

[ForssAwakens]

What’s your point? That sacking managers doesn’t achieve promotion?

TBF, I’ve only ever known you support Karanka for longer than about a year in the entire time you’ve used this board. Generally, you’re someone who gets bored of managers very quickly. We have plenty of fans the same though, as do most clubs nowadays.

The world we live, smaller attention spans and instant success

 

[indeedido]

What’s your point? That sacking managers doesn’t achieve promotion?

TBF, I’ve only ever known you support Karanka for longer than about a year in the entire time you’ve used this board. Generally, you’re someone who gets bored of managers very quickly. We have plenty of fans the same though, as do most clubs nowadays.

My points seem very clear.
1. Your premise that we should stick with a manager unless we face relegation is strange, in that it implies changing a manager won't lead to better performance, or its not worth trying in case it doesn't.
2. Sacking managers can and has led to improved performances and positions and better chance of promotion. The 2 examples I gave did just that. We weren't promoted, but we improved significantly both times. Sacking Woodgate and bringing in Warnock was a step forward at the time.

Managers very rarely consistently do well. Sacking them at the right time is key.

Thanks for the uninvited character job, if I may trouble you with the facts?
I was sad to see Mowbray's status eroded, but 2013 was a horrific year and we were heading down.
I was supportive of Karanka throughout.
I didn't want Monk and was glad he went. Similarly pulis.
I didn't want Woodgate and he was a disaster. With Agnew, it was 4 successive poor appointments.
I was happy with Warnock, but felt it was right to move on at the time.
I was happy with the Wilder appointment, but again felt he had to go in the circumstances mainly down to off field issues. He's doing well again at Sheff U.
I was very hopeful with Carrick, and have simply said he should go if he does not make the play offs this season.

So what is your point again....?

 

[atypical_boro]

My points seem very clear.
1. Your premise that we should stick with a manager unless we face relegation is strange, in that it implies changing a manager won't lead to better performance, or its not worth trying in case it doesn't.
2. Sacking managers can and has led to improved performances and positions and better chance of promotion. The 2 examples I gave did just that. We weren't promoted, but we improved significantly both times. Sacking Woodgate and bringing in Warnock was a step forward at the time.

Managers very rarely consistently do well. Sacking them at the right time is key.

Thanks for the uninvited character job, if I may trouble you with the facts?
I was sad to see Mowbray's status eroded, but 2013 was a horrific year and we were heading down.
I was supportive of Karanka throughout.
I didn't want Monk and was glad he went. Similarly pulis.
I didn't want Woodgate and he was a disaster. With Agnew, it was 4 successive poor appointments.
I was happy with Warnock, but felt it was right to move on at the time.
I was happy with the Wilder appointment, but again felt he had to go in the circumstances mainly down to off field issues. He's doing well again at Sheff U.
I was very hopeful with Carrick, and have simply said he should go if he does not make the play offs this season.

So what is your point again....?

Well my point is that generally you get bored of managers quite quickly, you’ve just explained why above but you haven’t disproven my claim. It wasn’t a character job, it’s plain to see.

Obviously you’re entitled to your opinions, but you’re becoming one of the most vocal Carrick nay-sayers and I don’t think you should be too surprised to get challenged while we’re fifth in the league and on course for a play-off finish.

 

[indeedido]

Well my point is that generally you get bored of managers quite quickly, you’ve just explained why above but you haven’t disproven my claim. It wasn’t a character job, it’s plain to see.

Obviously you’re entitled to your opinions, but you’re becoming one of the most vocal Carrick nay-sayers and I don’t think you should be too surprised to get challenged while we’re fifth in the league and on course for a play-off finish.

I don't get bored by managers, I just don't give them the endless rope you appear to want to.
I think the manager is a critical position and someone who can make the whole greater than the sum of the parts provided by others.
I don't need to disprove your claim, you simply haven't proven it.

I have repeatedly posted I would review Carrick at the end of this season and would not sack him now.
I have no problem however expressing frustration with the manager as we go deeper into his third season.
You appear intent on trying to maintain that anybody with any criticism is disruptive and there is no good can come from change.
I disagree. I couldn't care less about being challenged by the way, crack on.

 

[atypical_boro]

I don't get bored by managers, I just don't give them the endless rope you appear to want to.
I think the manager is a critical position and someone who can make the whole greater than the sum of the parts provided by others.
I don't need to disprove your claim, you simply haven't proven it.

I have repeatedly posted I would review Carrick at the end of this season and would not sack him now.
I have no problem however expressing frustration with the manager as we go deeper into his third season.
You appear intent on trying to maintain that anybody with any criticism is disruptive and there is no good can come from change.
I disagree. I couldn't care less about being challenged by the way, crack on.

Not at all. I think it’s pretty clear we will review the situation with Carrick at the end of the season, he may well feel he’s taken us as far as he can if we don’t go up. Gibson may feel the same.

I just think constantly pointing this out until May as if this season has been some kind of disaster (it hasn’t) is futile.

I wouldn’t sack him in May but he may choose to go anyway.

 

[indeedido]

I just think constantly pointing this out until May as if this season has been some kind of disaster (it hasn’t) is futile.

I wouldn’t sack him in May but he may choose to go anyway.

I haven't been constantly pointing anything about Carrick out at all. I've also been far from his biggest critic.

If we don't make the play offs it will have been a major disappointment to most fans. I would sack him if that is what happens.
That you wouldn't is no surprise. You seem happy to drift along and see what happens.
I'd suggest he won't walk in May, not with 2 years of a contract and less than obvious better opportunities.

 

[atypical_boro]

I haven't been constantly pointing anything about Carrick out at all. I've also been far from his biggest critic.

If we don't make the play offs it will have been a major disappointment to most fans. I would sack him if that is what happens.
That you wouldn't is no surprise. You seem happy to drift along and see what happens.
I'd suggest he won't walk in May, not with 2 years of a contract and less than obvious better opportunities.

Sacking managers every 1-2 years has got us nowhere since our latest relegation. I don’t see why we’d keep deploying the same approach.

It’s pretty clear Carrick isn’t some kind of clueless dud so I just think we need to show a bit of patience. I don’t expect you to agree with me, but it remains my opinion.

 

[indeedido]

Sacking managers every 1-2 years has got us nowhere since our latest relegation. I don’t see why we’d keep deploying the same approach.

It’s pretty clear Carrick isn’t some kind of clueless dud so I just think we need to show a bit of patience. I don’t expect you to agree with me, but it remains my opinion.

Sacking managers who have failed is better than keeping them because they might come good.
I think the better part of 3 full seasons will have shown enough patience.

I don't agree with you, but you are certainly entitled to your opinion.
Your posting history shows you are perhaps more likely to keep on going about yours given you've 12k more posts...

 

[atypical_boro]

Sacking managers who have failed is better than keeping them because they might come good.
I think the better part of 3 full seasons will have shown enough patience.

I don't agree with you, but you are certainly entitled to your opinion.
Your posting history shows you are perhaps more likely to keep on going about yours given you've 12k more posts...

That’s cos I generally like to keep my posts relatively short and concise rather than the long monologues your posting style favours!

Well, if we’re doing t*t for tat….

 

[indeedido]

That’s cos I generally like to keep my posts relatively short and concise rather than the long monologues your posting style favours!

Well, if we’re doing t*t for tat….

Mine like 145 are occasionally long because they've got lots of facts in them.
Yours are undoubtedly shorter...