Our next seven games.

BoroMart said:
That's catastrophising again. It is unlikely that we will average 1 point per game over the next 7,
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Is it? Because we’re currently averaging 1.3 with 8 from 6, and if you go by XG, we’re creating less chances than we were, plus the teams we’re about to face are better.

We’ve seen we couldn’t make up the deficit last season, if we’re too be far behind by the beginning of November we won’t again.

I said in another thread, we’ll probably repeat last season and come good towards the end of the season when the pressure’s off. This team has shown time and time again that when it matters, they fall short.
 
indeedido said:
But you have said exactly what Bruce said in that it would take 4 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from the next 7.
He rightly says that is quite the turnaround. You say its not significant at all?

I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if we won all our home matches in that sequence.
Sadly, I wouldn't be surprised if we continued our disappointing sequence either.

Carrick needs to find his best team/group of 15.
I don't think he has a clue what that is just now.
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I think Carrick does know what he thinks his best team is. I'm pretty certain that it's the team he put out against Sunderland with RVDB replacing Edmundson and possibly McGree replacing Azaz. I suspect that he's planning on replacing Jones with Doak as a starter at some point but that's probably it.

At this point I can see almost anything happening in the next 7 games. I can see us going on a mad win 6, lose 1 streak. I can see us struggling to get 7 points. Probably it will be somewhere in the middle.

I suspect the real benchmark is the November international break. At that point, we're 15 games into the season which is 1/3rd of the way through. If we're not in the playoffs at that point, we've given ourselves a difficult task to reach them by the end of the season. 6th place after 15 games is usually 23-25 points which is another 15-17 points from the next 9 games.

If we're serious about the playoffs then 15 points from the next 9 games seems like the absolute minimum we should be aiming for. That's a significant improvement from our first 6. We have done that kind of thing in the past.
 
Scrug said:
Is it? Because we’re currently averaging 1.3 with 8 from 6, and if you go by XG, we’re creating less chances than we were, plus the teams we’re about to face are better.
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Yes it's unlikely. It's more likely based on carricks form over two years and the stats, that we will average 2 points, than 1.
 
Bruce said:
If we're serious about the playoffs then 15 points from the next 9 games seems like the absolute minimum we should be aiming for. That's a significant improvement from our first 6. We have done that kind of thing in the past.
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The top two were in place by November last season. But the play offs weren't. two of the teams dropped out. Sunderland and Preston.

Norwich were in 16th position on 20 points after 16 games, and made the play offs.

------------

November 22.
Blackburn were second and didn't even make play offs.
QPR, Norwich and swansea were all in play off spots and finished 20th, 13th and 10th

The teams that made the play offs in November were:
Luton 10th
Boro 18th
Coventry 19th
Sunderland 16th

Teams outside the top 2 go on good runs of results and bad runs of results. It's always been that way. That's why they are not in the top 2.

3 of 22/23 play off teams would have been written off, by November, and everyone thought Blackburn were at worst play offs.

Lesson: The table in September is irrelevant, the table in October is largely irrelevant. What matters is the table mid-May
 
BoroMart said:
Yes it's unlikely. It's more likely based on carricks form over two years and the stats, that we will average 2 points, than 1.
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I had a look at last season because it broke into 4 parts.
Disaster 7 games 2 points. 0.3 points per game. Ends when Carrick gives up on his preferred formation and goes to a 4-5-1 with Coburn up top.
Amazing. 10 games, 22 points 2.2 points per game. Ends as Coburn's groin gives way.
Mediocre. 17 games, 20 points. The era with no strikers. 1.2 points per game.
Rebirth. 12 games, 25 points. Kickstarted by a switch to 3 at the back, the start of the AylingLath bromance and a really lucky penalty at Norwich. 2.1 points per game.

Basically, last season we were either going at automatic promotion rates or bottom 1/3 rates with nothing much in between. That doesn't inspire confidence in any kind of sustained improvement.
 
Scrug said:
Stoke (H)
West Brom (A)
Watford (A)
Bristol (H)
Sheff Utd (H)
Norwich (A)
Coventry (H)

21 points to play for, we’re already 3 points off the play-off places and 7 behind the automatics.

That’s a tough run that. If we don’t get a decent return from those games we could be out of it by November.
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West Brom and the Blades are the ones we're most likely to win.👍
 
Bruce said:
I had a look at last season because it broke into 4 parts.
Disaster 7 games 2 points. 0.3 points per game. Ends when Carrick gives up on his preferred formation and goes to a 4-5-1 with Coburn up top.
Amazing. 10 games, 22 points 2.2 points per game. Ends as Coburn's groin gives way.
Mediocre. 17 games, 20 points. The era with no strikers. 1.2 points per game.
Rebirth. 12 games, 25 points. Kickstarted by a switch to 3 at the back, the start of the AylingLath bromance and a really lucky penalty at Norwich. 2.1 points per game.

Basically, last season we were either going at automatic promotion rates or bottom 1/3 rates with nothing much in between. That doesn't inspire confidence in any kind of sustained improvement.
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This is exactly why I’ve been screaming for 3 at the back for so long now.
 
If you use the Derby/Sunderland defeats plus the last home game (Preston) as an example of Boro’s form then we won’t get many points at all. Being pessimistic we could get as low as 4.
That said we could go in a run and win the majority of them. I do think however that MC has been entirely sussed out by the other champo managers hence the pessimism.
I want to be wrong
UTB
 
it's one game at a time & Carrick won't trash the players publicly - unlike some before, i'm sure he see's it as badly as we do & realises - it needs, tweaking: faster play, more urgency & generally more attacking..

I've always though the closer to the oppositions area you are the more license players should have to express themselves & be creative: run at players, shoot..
 
BobUpnDown said:
it's one game at a time & Carrick won't trash the players publicly - unlike some before, i'm sure he see's it as badly as we do & realises - it needs, tweaking: faster play, more urgency & generally more attacking..

I've always though the closer to the oppositions area you are the more license players should have to express themselves & be creative: run at players, shoot..
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He definitely looked the most stressed I’ve seen him in the post-match interview.

Also saw him losing his temper on the sideline a couple of times. Never seen that from him before.
 
Bruce said:
I had a look at last season because it broke into 4 parts.
Disaster 7 games 2 points. 0.3 points per game. Ends when Carrick gives up on his preferred formation and goes to a 4-5-1 with Coburn up top.
Amazing. 10 games, 22 points 2.2 points per game. Ends as Coburn's groin gives way.
Mediocre. 17 games, 20 points. The era with no strikers. 1.2 points per game.
Rebirth. 12 games, 25 points. Kickstarted by a switch to 3 at the back, the start of the AylingLath bromance and a really lucky penalty at Norwich. 2.1 points per game.

Basically, last season we were either going at automatic promotion rates or bottom 1/3 rates with nothing much in between. That doesn't inspire confidence in any kind of sustained improvement.
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But it does give confidence that we can fly up the table at some point and given we’re unlikely to not have anyone who can play cf this season (lath, Conway, burgzorg, Forss) then that reason has gone
 
Frazza65 said:
If you use the Derby/Sunderland defeats plus the last home game (Preston) as an example of Boro’s form then we won’t get many points at all. Being pessimistic we could get as low as 4.
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That’s basically stating that your future form will always mimic
Your past form and nothing can ever change…which is of course nonsense
 
BoroMart said:
But it does give confidence that we can fly up the table at some point and given we’re unlikely to not have anyone who can play cf this season (lath, Conway, burgzorg, Forss) then that reason has gone
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Yes but the main thing I will say to that is our first good run was started when Carrick stepped away from his preferred style and went to something like a 4-5-1 with Coburn up top and Crooks getting into the box late. It looked turgid but did the job.

The second good run was a mix of going to 3 at the back, partnering ELL with Forss up front and Norwich imploding after a flukey penalty. When we ran out of defenders and Forss pulled up lame (again) we reverted back to Carrick's 4-2-3-1 but were already motoring.

It seems to me that Carrick's standard game plan really only works when we've got up to speed another way. It just feels that Carrick's tactics are fragile. it looks amazing when it works but seems like almost anything can tear it to pieces.

Come the November international break, Carrick will have been in place for 2 years and be coaching a team that ought to be 100% his. I think that's when you can start to make properly informed judgements about how far he can take us.
 
People already talking about staying in touch, staying within 6 points of the playoffs, in September. I think people think that shows how tight the division is and they’re right in some ways, but to me it’s more about how underwhelming the start has been. We are supposed to be going for it, not hanging on for scraps and trying to hang onto the coattails of the team in 6th.

Yes it’s very early days of course but the root of some of the frustration is that a lot of what’s happening now happened last season as well, that’s despite another rebuild and a fortune being invested on fees and wages. It’s that the signs are pointing to another season like the last one. There’s lots of time for change but it’s a catalogue of injuries, a rigid shape, like-for-like subs allowing the opponents to get back into their shape through a lack of tempo, conceding sloppy goals, missing chances and then running out of ideas.
 
BoroMart said:
That’s basically stating that your future form will always mimic
Your past form and nothing can ever change…which is of course nonsense
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Bad form doesn’t usually just change overnight!!
I did say we could win all the upcoming games as well
 
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What cannot be denied is that all the pre-season optimism founded on our purchases and retaining our 'star' players, has completely evaporated. The club had clearly judged this season as the one to have a proper go at promotion and though early days, there are some legitimate concerns.
We had, on paper at least, a very comfortable looking start to the season - we now face a way more demanding set of fixtures and our injury list continues to grow.
Michael Carrick has now been here 2 years and it's been a series of marked peaks and troughs...let's just hope we're about to embark on another peak.
.
 
Bruce said:
The second good run was a mix of going to 3 at the back, partnering ELL with Forss up front and Norwich imploding after a flukey penalty. When we ran out of defenders and Forss pulled up lame (again) we reverted back to Carrick's 4-2-3-1 but were already motoring.
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has ofrss ever played up front for us, other than a couple of league cup games when he first joined?

Flukey penalty? We've had flukey goals against us, so it all evens out.
 
Frazza65 said:
Bad form doesn’t usually just change overnight!!
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Yes, it does, if it's a night game that you win to get the confidence going. One good win, and suddenly the belief is there, we've seen it many times before.

There will be plenty going on behind the scenes to get the results. We haven't played poorly in any of our defeats, nobody has pulled us apart, nobody has over run us (other than when we played a bunch of kids vs stoke in the cup).
 
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