Opinium reduces Labour lead from 10 to 3 with new methodology

There's been irrepairable damage done to the Tories by Johnson and the damage will continue. The 'shy Tory' is already built into the previous methodology I believe and so giving the huge majority of 'Don't Knows' to the Tories just shows how big the gap is. There'll be Tories who will abstain, who will vote for Reform and who may even vote Lib Dem. There may even be some moderate float voters who may well vote Labour.

Personally I don't pay too much attention to polls, they give a broad indication of public feeling but the fact of the matter is that if they overplay the Tory vote it'll lead to even more of a decimation in their seat numbers at the next GE.
 
The Tories know that they can't win the next election with Johnson as leader.

However, the time is not right to replace him. They will want partygate out of the way first. Then they need to engineer good news stories and promises to woo voters (again).
Sunak will win them the next election IMO
 
All the polls have a real problem with the next election, Brexit.

Brexit is a fundamental part of how pollsters weigh their score, previously this was fine and accurate but the next election will not be solely about Brexit.

A lot of "don't knows" are being weighted on their Brexit position, which will lean Tory. The Tories are also getting their total score boosted by this weighing when predicting the final numbers.

I suspect more pollsters will be changing their methodology in the coming months.
 
Wiseman_Vaughn said:
The Tories know that they can't win the next election with Johnson as leader.

However, the time is not right to replace him. They will want partygate out of the way first. Then they need to engineer good news stories and promises to woo voters (again).
Sunak will win them the next election IMO
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Sunak, for many reasons, will not be a uniting candidate for the Tories.

His popularity as a whole has also took a nose dive and is an easy target for Labour.
 
I think old concerns amongst floating voters about Sir Keir's Leadership abilities may have been exacerbated by the current international crisis. I would like to see him be given the chance to prove doubters wrong but there's no getting away from the fact that the UK as a whole still doesn't seem to be convinced that labour represents a better option than the current shambolic incumbent. Not overwhelmingly so anyway, as should be the case given recent events. I think labour MPs have largely fell into the trap of continually focusing on tory failings rather than presenting convincing alternative ideas and solutions themselves. A reflection of the passionate labour members who frequent this board one could argue?
 
They have to play he long game, let the tories mess up, the financial squeeze over the next 18 months will be the battleground.
Labour need to offer alternatives to help those struggling.
The Tories hands are tied on that as johnson needs the far right if the party onside who won't want him "giving their money away "
 
Apparently the two polls that prove to be key are:

Who do you trust with the economy?
Leader approval rating

A strong combination of those suggests a win

I think labour ahead in the leadership and increasing trust in the economy
 
Labour are not focusing on tory failures. They are repeating their pledges all the time and clearly giving an alternative for the energy cruises.

On tory failures... If starmer never mentioned the parties or the police investigation that would be political suicide. Of course the subject comes up a lot.

Labour clearly moved from laughing at the tories to forming their own policies some time ago.

No idea how the next election will go outside of the tories having their majority smashed out of sight. By elections have clearly shown that the tory vote has began to crumble.
 
gizasqueezemister said:
I think old concerns amongst floating voters about Sir Keir's Leadership abilities may have been exacerbated by the current international crisis. I would like to see him be given the chance to prove doubters wrong but there's no getting away from the fact that the UK as a whole still doesn't seem to be convinced that labour represents a better option than the current shambolic incumbent. Not overwhelmingly so anyway, as should be the case given recent events. I think labour MPs have largely fell into the trap of continually focusing on tory failings rather than presenting convincing alternative ideas and solutions themselves. A reflection of the passionate labour members who frequent this board one could argue?
Click to expand...

There is not a lot Keir can do in opposition when he doesn't have his hand on the tiller and the Tories have such a huge majority. He has to keep continually focusing on the Tory failings as people seem to have short memories. One shambles is forgotton when the next one cones along. The problem with presenting alternative ideas so far away from an election is they end up giving Tories ideas to steal. Which has happened since the last election. Either that or the Government just ignors what to many seem sensible ideas. See Labours plans for easing the energy bills as an example.
 
I agree leadership and the economy are both hugely important in winning votes.

I see labour being ahead on the leadership front for obvious reasons. It will be interesting to see how that develops once Kier is up against the Tory leader that will take them to the next election.

On economy I'm not so sure. The magic money tree debacle from JC's campaign lingers on and I still see Labour MPs struggling to articulate where the funding would come from for the priorities they would like to address should they get the keys to 10 and 11.

Plenty work still to do I would say before real 'trust' is there.......
 
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