Corcaigh_the_Cat
Well-known member
Me too, I have absolutely no faith in England to do the right thing.
Opinium reduces Labour lead from 10 to 3 with new methodology
- Thread starter TeessideCleveland
- Start date
Billyzin
Well-known member
Me neither.
After presenting a huge list of tory failings, blatant lies and hypocrisy to a family member, they told me that the reason they couldn't vote labour was " because of Dianne Abbot ".
WoodallServices
Well-known member
These polls are complete b***ks!! I’m going to start The Woodall Poll……..
Who would you vote for at the general election:-
A/ Conservative. B/ Labour or C/ Another……..job done!
Who would you vote for at the general election:-
A/ Conservative. B/ Labour or C/ Another……..job done!
Otto42
Well-known member
I find it really difficult to see Labour win anything like a convinving majority without Scotland and Wales, we'll see the pressure ramped up on that front soon too. There are many parts of Southern England that are just funamentally opposed to anything vaguely socialist, so this methodology seems much more realistic to me.
TeessideCleveland
Well-known member
Several of the recent polls are showing a narrowing of the Labour lead recently.
If they all used Opinium's new methodology I think Tories would be inching ahead
If they all used Opinium's new methodology I think Tories would be inching ahead
festa5
Well-known member
Stop the country I want to get off.
If it is genuinely the case that Tories would win an election tomorrow (and I know it's just polls and there's a lot of uncertainty with them, especially now) then I give up.
Why bother having a democracy? Might as well do away with it and go back to the monarchy just running the show, behaving how they like and answerable to no-one. Because for me and millions of others it'd be pretty much the same thing.
2015-19 was certainly an interesting and informative time to live through eh?
I have to admit I've been really surprised over the last few weeks to see journalists challenging tory MPs over Boris's lies about Starmer, his old role and Jimmy Saville rather than just repeating the claims. Compare and contrast that to times Cameron called Corbyn a terrorist supporter - the same journalists were asking Corbyn if he'd resign because of it!
How bad is it when it's genuinely more surprising to see journalists try to get to the truth of something than to just repeat tory attack lines?
Wiseman_Vaughn
Well-known member
Could it be that the electoral system is broken? Even after all that has happened since Johnson became leader/pm, anything but a labour victory is in doubt???? Seems unbelievable
changingman
Well-known member
Wow, not even trying to hide it there are they!
Emmersons_BrazillianDong
Well-known member
I thought that for a while but then saw Sunak interviewed recently about his attendance at some of the parties and he looked like a kid who'd followed through in a geography lesson.
Total lightweight, rabbit in the headlights. Since then he's written off billions in fraud and people are starting to hear about the millions his mates and his family have made. Nothing at all to fear in him
Billy Horner
Well-known member
I do wonder what the point of some of these opinion polls is sometimes.
Polling is supposed to produce a (relatively) random sample of people who respond to set of fixed questions to give you the 'mood of the nation' on important issues, such as who people feel they're most likely to vote for at the next general election. If you repeat the poll, using the same methodology, you should be able to gauge how the mood of the nation changes from time to time.
I think these polling companies have become far too focussed on trying to predict the result of the horse race. This constant changing of methodologies, which is an attempt to second guess the responses of their participants, adds little to the knowledge base.
If you look at the changes to their methodology in the link below, Opinium is basically saying that they're now over-sampling people with little interest in politics (who are presumably less likely to vote), under-sampling older graduates (who are presumably more likely to vote than older non-graduates) and re-allocating a chunk of undecided voters based on the result of the previous election (introducing bias towards the sitting government).
I'm sure Opinium would argue that their revised methodology more accurately reflects behaviour in past elections, but it also basically ignores people's responses and says "No, you don't really mean that do you?". I don't see the point of asking the question if you're going to ignore the answer.
It's worth noting that, using their previous methodology, Opinium produced the most accurate poll in advance of the 2019 General Election.
www.opinium.com
Polling is supposed to produce a (relatively) random sample of people who respond to set of fixed questions to give you the 'mood of the nation' on important issues, such as who people feel they're most likely to vote for at the next general election. If you repeat the poll, using the same methodology, you should be able to gauge how the mood of the nation changes from time to time.
I think these polling companies have become far too focussed on trying to predict the result of the horse race. This constant changing of methodologies, which is an attempt to second guess the responses of their participants, adds little to the knowledge base.
If you look at the changes to their methodology in the link below, Opinium is basically saying that they're now over-sampling people with little interest in politics (who are presumably less likely to vote), under-sampling older graduates (who are presumably more likely to vote than older non-graduates) and re-allocating a chunk of undecided voters based on the result of the previous election (introducing bias towards the sitting government).
I'm sure Opinium would argue that their revised methodology more accurately reflects behaviour in past elections, but it also basically ignores people's responses and says "No, you don't really mean that do you?". I don't see the point of asking the question if you're going to ignore the answer.
It's worth noting that, using their previous methodology, Opinium produced the most accurate poll in advance of the 2019 General Election.
UK: Voting intention and methodology update – 11th February 2022 - Opinium
Labour holds a 3 point lead under our new methodology. However, the smaller lead is because of the new methodology, not because of a weakening in Labour’s position. Summary The new methodology makes sure we are getting a sample that is balanced on political attention, ethnicity, as well as...
www.opinium.com
Chris_Boro
Well-known member
It's why any poll has a 3pt margin of error.
The problem with Opinium changing their methodology to add greater weight to "don't knows" not being don't knows and actually secret Tory voters is that margin of error will be much greater than 3pts.
The more I've read about the methodology change the more baffled I am about it. They are literally changing what people are telling them.
The whole point of polling outside of election cycles is to get a snap shot of current opinion, not what might be if someone told you that you must have a preference.
jonny_greenings_sock
Well-known member
I’m biased because (1) I’m biased, I’m Labour to the core, can’t bear a Tory and (2) Keir Starmer’s right up my street but I think the Conservative vote collapses in the next election, and it’ll be a close run thing whether it’s a Labour majority or confidence and supply with Lib Dem / SNP votes.
Main reason being that a lot of people, especially up here, lent the Conservatives their vote in the last election and have got nothing back.
Brexit and the continuous scandals aside (and you could argue that the Brexit vote for the Tories was to stop hearing about Brexit as much as it was to “Get Brexit Done”, so you could half argue that at least Boris got that done, sort of), the Conservatives promised change, a new energy and a commitment to “levelling up” to these northern communities that have voted Labour forever, so people gave them a chance. Ridiculous when you realise they’ve already been in power for 10 years and Conservative party austerity caused most of the problems, but you can see why people voted to level up their communities.
In reality it’s got worse, again. The reality of levelling up was that three weeks ago, Michael Gove published a 10 page document full of vague aspirational phrases. So as ever with the Conservatives there’s no plan, no competence, no action, and nothing has actually been done. That was their key policy, currently it’s 10 sides of A4 two years into Boris’ time in power.
I think a lot of the country does need a bit of radical change, but the way you get elected to do that is by calm competence and regaining trust after the Corbyn debacle. Starmer couldn’t be better for that, he’s a serious person. And it’s also great to see Labour already outflanking what will be the Tory’s attack lines at the next election - I know Angela Rayner’s not everyone’s cup of tea, but no Tory can now look her in the eyes and say “Labour aren’t tough on crime”, you can’t get much more hardline than her comments the other day about terrorists and the vast majority of people will quietly agree with her.
The Conservatives, also, couldn’t have shown their true colours over the last couple of years better if you’d scripted it - giving their neighbours and partners’ friends multi-billion pound PPE contracts in a time of national crisis, ignoring lockdown laws to party whilst ordinary people can’t see their dying relatives. It’s all about self-enrichment, taking care of your mates in the elite and thinking you’re better than the plebs you’re ruling over, as it always has been.
I don’t think people will be lending them their votes again for a long time.
Main reason being that a lot of people, especially up here, lent the Conservatives their vote in the last election and have got nothing back.
Brexit and the continuous scandals aside (and you could argue that the Brexit vote for the Tories was to stop hearing about Brexit as much as it was to “Get Brexit Done”, so you could half argue that at least Boris got that done, sort of), the Conservatives promised change, a new energy and a commitment to “levelling up” to these northern communities that have voted Labour forever, so people gave them a chance. Ridiculous when you realise they’ve already been in power for 10 years and Conservative party austerity caused most of the problems, but you can see why people voted to level up their communities.
In reality it’s got worse, again. The reality of levelling up was that three weeks ago, Michael Gove published a 10 page document full of vague aspirational phrases. So as ever with the Conservatives there’s no plan, no competence, no action, and nothing has actually been done. That was their key policy, currently it’s 10 sides of A4 two years into Boris’ time in power.
I think a lot of the country does need a bit of radical change, but the way you get elected to do that is by calm competence and regaining trust after the Corbyn debacle. Starmer couldn’t be better for that, he’s a serious person. And it’s also great to see Labour already outflanking what will be the Tory’s attack lines at the next election - I know Angela Rayner’s not everyone’s cup of tea, but no Tory can now look her in the eyes and say “Labour aren’t tough on crime”, you can’t get much more hardline than her comments the other day about terrorists and the vast majority of people will quietly agree with her.
The Conservatives, also, couldn’t have shown their true colours over the last couple of years better if you’d scripted it - giving their neighbours and partners’ friends multi-billion pound PPE contracts in a time of national crisis, ignoring lockdown laws to party whilst ordinary people can’t see their dying relatives. It’s all about self-enrichment, taking care of your mates in the elite and thinking you’re better than the plebs you’re ruling over, as it always has been.
I don’t think people will be lending them their votes again for a long time.
Nobby_Barnes
Well-known member
The Tories will win the next election by another landslide when Rishi takes over !
Billyzin
Well-known member
Nice to see Davies adding gravitas to his statement by using an emoji.
how have we reached a point where David Davis is the voice of reason?
Redwurzel
Well-known member
Realistically Labour need to win all the Red Wall seat back, there are 4 in the Teesside area.
To me Labour have lost Scotland for good which was a previous heartland and struggling in the North of England and North Wales, outside the big cities - another heartland. Labour still need to work more on winning Northern voters back. The key voters are house owners not on any state benefits say earning around £25k a year or £18k if retired.
My suggestions: Reform Council Tax and base it on current house values, not 1991 - people should pay roughly 0.5% of the value of their house in council tax, some in the North are paying 2% a year.
Thorough and major proposals for increasing economic activity in the left behind areas. At much higher levels than the Tories are doing. (as happened 1945-79)
Move Public sector jobs to left behind areas. (as happened 1945-79)
Introduce 10% income band for £5k of income (£12.5k to £17.5k per year incomes)
Pay for the above by reducing tax reliefs on pensions for higher earners say limiting tax relief to 20%.
All this stuff about parties at number 10 is fluff to me, OK it dirties the Johnson image but it doesn't help me, my family or the community I live in (say if I lived in Redcar or Hartlepool).
To me Labour have lost Scotland for good which was a previous heartland and struggling in the North of England and North Wales, outside the big cities - another heartland. Labour still need to work more on winning Northern voters back. The key voters are house owners not on any state benefits say earning around £25k a year or £18k if retired.
My suggestions: Reform Council Tax and base it on current house values, not 1991 - people should pay roughly 0.5% of the value of their house in council tax, some in the North are paying 2% a year.
Thorough and major proposals for increasing economic activity in the left behind areas. At much higher levels than the Tories are doing. (as happened 1945-79)
Move Public sector jobs to left behind areas. (as happened 1945-79)
Introduce 10% income band for £5k of income (£12.5k to £17.5k per year incomes)
Pay for the above by reducing tax reliefs on pensions for higher earners say limiting tax relief to 20%.
All this stuff about parties at number 10 is fluff to me, OK it dirties the Johnson image but it doesn't help me, my family or the community I live in (say if I lived in Redcar or Hartlepool).
TeessideCleveland
Well-known member
Labour lead disappearing in polls now.
Partygate off the news, and Boris trying to appear statesmanlike over Ukraine
Partygate off the news, and Boris trying to appear statesmanlike over Ukraine