OFFICIAL: It’s back on

It's nice to be mathematically alive at the end of this season, I'll say that.

But we're still looking for Norwich to have a mare to have a chance. If Norwich get at 10 points from 6 games (3 wins and a draw; that's decent form but below what they've been doing recently) we'd need 17 points to overtake them, given their GD. Except you can't get 17 points from 6 games, so we'd have to win them all.

There's a slim, slim chance, but we're still looking at them falling off dramatically and us getting at least 5 wins
 
kuepper said:
Considering our bad start, our injury record, our selling Rogers, our failure to add to the squad in January, and the fact that we've played badly quite often, it's a miracle it's even a remote possibility
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Yeah, I think it's pretty inarguable that without a huge injury crisis through most of the season and a really poor January window, we'd be right in the play-off mix rather than on the edges of it.

All it would have taken was even one result to be flipped in our favour and we'd be a win away from it.
There were plenty of games where it was a tight run thing.

We went through a two months spell where we only started with a recognised striker once, and that was New Year's Day.
A game we lost despite absolutely dominating the first half because we ran out of energy with no options to change it from the bench.

Even having Dieng available for longer might have been enough, as he'd 100% have saved the Sunderland goal.
 
Jonny Ingbar said:
For the last time, we ain't gonna make the play offs people 😂

And even if we did does anyone genuinely believe we'd stand a decent chance?
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If we did make the play-offs, why wouldn’t you believe it?

It would likely mean that we'd beaten Ipswich, West Brom, Leeds, Southampton and Leicester already in the season.

There'd be no reason why we couldn't do it again in those circumstances.
 
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TeaCider said:
If we did make the play-offs, why wouldn’t you believe it?

It would likely mean that we'd beaten Ipswich, West Brom, Leeds, Southampton and Leicester already in the season.

There'd be no reason why we couldn't do it again in those circumstances.
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Statistically, the lower down the table you finish the less likely you are to win the play-offs and that's before you account for the fact that two of the current top 4 will be in there.

There's always a chance of course, but if we're honest we know this team isn't anywhere near one that looks like a potentially promotion winning one.
 
Jonny Ingbar said:
Statistically, the lower down the table you finish the less likely you are to win the play-offs and that's before you account for the fact that two of the current top 4 will be in there.

There's always a chance of course, but if we're honest we know this team isn't anywhere near one that looks like a potentially promotion winning one.
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I don't think it is either, but that's right now.

In the unlikely scenario where we actually did make the play-offs at the end of this season, we'll have almost certaily already have beaten every team that could be in them on the way to making them and almost every player would be back from injury, so I wouldn't be thinking "we can't beat Leeds" if we'd just done so a few weeks before.

I don't think that we are making the play-offs, so it's just hypothetical on my part.
 
TeaCider said:
I don't think it is either, but that's right now.

In the unlikely scenario where we actually did make the play-offs at the end of this season, we'll have almost certaily already have beaten every team that could be in them on the way to making them and almost every player would be back from injury, so I wouldn't be thinking "we can't beat Leeds" if we'd just done so a few weeks before.

I don't think that we are making the play-offs, so it's just hypothetical on my part.
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Aye, get that. In any event its good to have something to keep the season alive, albeit only faintly.

To get so close to the play-offs I think is a pretty big achievement for Carrick and his coaches, given how many injuries we've had and how many changes we've seen to the team.

It will be intersting to see how we do over the last 6 games.
 
Jonny Ingbar said:
Statistically, the lower down the table you finish the less likely you are to win the play-offs and that's before you account for the fact that two of the current top 4 will be in there.

There's always a chance of course, but if we're honest we know this team isn't anywhere near one that looks like a potentially promotion winning one.
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One 6th place team has won promotion in the last 15 seasons: Blackpool way back when.

they finished 9 points behind the 3rd placed team. Right now, Norwich are 21 points off 3rd having played a game more. The range of quality across the playoff teams has increased.

in those 15 seasons the 3rd or 4th placed team has been promoted 67% of the time.

I Am not saying no 6th placed team will ever do it again. Eventually they will. However, it is not a lottery, anc the 6th placed team does not have as much chance as anyone

I also think there's a wide gap between knowing we can beat a team and thinking we will. We knew we could beat Norwich: we'd done it twice already, but it made no difference in the end. I think Bradford beat us twice in the league too...

We can beat anyone on our day; however, beating a better team over 2 legs, then beating another better team at Wembley requires it to be our day more than once.
 
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Frozen Horse said:
One 6th place team has won promotion in the last 15 seasons: Blackpool way back when.

they finished 9 points behind the 3rd placed team. Right now, Norwich are 21 points off 3rd having played a game more. The range of quality across the playoff teams has increased.

in those 15 seasons the 3rd or 4th placed team has been promoted 67% of the time.

I Am not saying no 6th placed team will ever do it again. Eventually they will. However, it is not a lottery, anc the 6th placed team does not have as much chance as anyone

I also think there's a wide gap between knowing we can beat a team and thinking we will. We knew we could beat Norwich: we'd done it twice already, but it made no difference in the end. I think Bradford beat us twice in the league too...

We can beat anyone on our day; however, beating a better team over 2 legs, then beating another better team at Wembley requires it to be our day more than once.
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This is t`Boro tha knowz.
(y):love:
 
Frozen Horse said:
One 6th place team has won promotion in the last 15 seasons: Blackpool way back when.

they finished 9 points behind the 3rd placed team. Right now, Norwich are 21 points off 3rd having played a game more. The range of quality across the playoff teams has increased.

in those 15 seasons the 3rd or 4th placed team has been promoted 67% of the time.

I Am not saying no 6th placed team will ever do it again. Eventually they will. However, it is not a lottery, anc the 6th placed team does not have as much chance as anyone

I also think there's a wide gap between knowing we can beat a team and thinking we will. We knew we could beat Norwich: we'd done it twice already, but it made no difference in the end. I think Bradford beat us twice in the league too...

We can beat anyone on our day; however, beating a better team over 2 legs, then beating another better team at Wembley requires it to be our day more than once.
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Thanks for the stats, it's a pretty compelling case against our chances of success in the play offs, even if we did manage to scrape in.

I think you generally know if your team has a decent chance and this season I really don't feel we are at the required level.

Last year we were for sure, but that will always be seen as a very good opportunity missed - fine margins and all that.
 
FabioPorkpie said:
We are out of it and have been for weeks. Nice to get some decent results but let’s not kid ourselves, we’ve got no chance of finishing 6th, sadly.
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I don't get this defeatist attitude. Yes it is very unlikely we could slip into the playoffs but until that chance has gone there is always a chance. If I lived my life with that attitude i'd be nowhere. Its like Leicester they had no chance winning the premier league but they did. Come on lets not give up on the boys and enjoy what the next few games may bring. Yes I doubt we will make it and even if we did with our injuries we would find it hard to progress but since Carrick has not given up, then neither have I.
 
snowman1962a said:
I don't get this defeatist attitude. Yes it is very unlikely we could slip into the playoffs but until that chance has gone there is always a chance. If I lived my life with that attitude i'd be nowhere. Its like Leicester they had no chance winning the premier league but they did. Come on lets not give up on the boys and enjoy what the next few games may bring. Yes I doubt we will make it and even if we did with our injuries we would find it hard to progress but since Carrick has not given up, then neither have I.
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Defeatist…. Or realist?
Sorry, but the club made clear that it had given up on the play offs in January when it let two regular starters leave an injury ravaged squad and replaced them with…….no-one. And didn’t buy a striker despite playing the previous 2 months without one.
I’m an optimistic Boro fan. I *normally believe we will win every game, no matter who the opposition is. I have always been very much a glass-half-full fan. I’m that weird fan when we are 2 down with ten minutes to go who is saying ‘I honestly think we’ll get something from this’….while actually believing it.
However, this year I’m not wasting any more of my hope on the minuscule chance that we will finish top 6. I shall enjoy watching how we get on in the knowledge that it’s all about having a proper go next season, as I believe we’ll never have a better chance, with Luton, Burnley and Sheffield Utd all likely to come down.
If we beat Ipswich, Hull and Leeds then I’ll jump onboard the late run to playoff glory. However…..we won’t. We just won’t. We’ll be doing well to get 3 points from those 3 games, so I’ll just enjoy watching how we get on and hoping for some entertainment to see out the season, hopefully with the unearthing of a young lad or two who can make the step up.
 
kuepper said:
Considering our bad start, our injury record, our selling Rogers, our failure to add to the squad in January, and the fact that we've played badly quite often, it's a miracle it's even a remote possibility
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Just shows the poor standard of the championship stick with the same squad with maybe 3 top quality signings and we could easily do it next season
 
snowman1962a said:
I don't get this defeatist attitude. Yes it is very unlikely we could slip into the playoffs but until that chance has gone there is always a chance. If I lived my life with that attitude i'd be nowhere. Its like Leicester they had no chance winning the premier league but they did. Come on lets not give up on the boys and enjoy what the next few games may bring. Yes I doubt we will make it and even if we did with our injuries we would find it hard to progress but since Carrick has not given up, then neither have I.
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It's an odd opinion that there is no point making the playoffs because we wouldn't win them anyway.

Can you imagine the outrage if Carrick sent the first team on holiday now because he agreed they're was no point!
 
FabioPorkpie said:
Defeatist…. Or realist?
Sorry, but the club made clear that it had given up on the play offs in January when it let two regular starters leave an injury ravaged squad and replaced them with…….no-one. And didn’t buy a striker despite playing the previous 2 months without one.
I’m an optimistic Boro fan. I *normally believe we will win every game, no matter who the opposition is. I have always been very much a glass-half-full fan. I’m that weird fan when we are 2 down with ten minutes to go who is saying ‘I honestly think we’ll get something from this’….while actually believing it.
However, this year I’m not wasting any more of my hope on the minuscule chance that we will finish top 6. I shall enjoy watching how we get on in the knowledge that it’s all about having a proper go next season, as I believe we’ll never have a better chance, with Luton, Burnley and Sheffield Utd all likely to come down.
If we beat Ipswich, Hull and Leeds then I’ll jump onboard the late run to playoff glory. However…..we won’t. We just won’t. We’ll be doing well to get 3 points from those 3 games, so I’ll just enjoy watching how we get on and hoping for some entertainment to see out the season, hopefully with the unearthing of a young lad or two who can make the step up.
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2 players were allowed to leave due to very specific circumstances. One was replaced and we were quit right not to buy a stop gap striker. In the long term that would, likely, damage the club.
 
snowman1962a said:
I don't get this defeatist attitude. Yes it is very unlikely we could slip into the playoffs but until that chance has gone there is always a chance.
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First, I don't feel I'm being defeatist. I'm quite upbeat about where the club is.

Second, I'm not interested in making the playoffs. I'm interested in promotion. Reality is that the 6th placed team is very unlikely to be promoted.

So, we're in with a slim chance of a slim chance. I don't really believe we can do it, but so long as we keep going out to win each match we play, I'm happy.
 
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