National Lockdown from Wednesday

Isn't that just taking verbatim what Hancock said in the Press Conference earlier today?
In which he said he hoped we'd re-enter the tier system on the 2nd, but couldn't guarantee it until the data had been analysed.

Doesn't seem like much of a scoop.

We already knew that the restrictions might have to last longer if things don't actually improve much.
 
I suspect the current lockdown won't have a huge effect and a lot of places will go straight to tier 3 as Johnson will want to say he is lifting lockdown for Christmas.
 
If lockdown doesn’t work what difference will tier 3 make? Isn’t it just the same but with a few more things open like gyms and golf courses?

Surely a fresh approach would be needed?
 
LowMoorBoro said:
If lockdown doesn’t work what difference will tier 3 make? Isn’t it just the same but with a few more things open like gyms and golf courses?

Surely a fresh approach would be needed?
Click to expand...
Keep people away from pubs and restaurants over Xmas run up is the plan I would guess.
 
I don't see how England exits the current measures (lockdown-lite) on the 2nd December, if anything they will need to get stricter before then, if we want deaths below the current average, before Christmas, if that is the governments actual aim, but I'm not convinced it is.

I think we might actually come out of lockdown-lite on the 2nd (against science's wishes), and into tier 2/3, depending on location. I think the government are going to use this period to "play dumb" and ignore science, to avoid bad headlines. All they are doing is moving the peak deaths and harshest lockdown into January, basically. Effectively January is looking like it's going to be bad, very bad.
December is a massive month for the economy, so they wont' want to miss out on the ££, and January not so much, so I think they're going to give a little in December, and then take a lot in January and massage the death numbers to avoid bad headlines like "Christmas lockdown" or "1,000 deaths per day".

So, R is apparently still 1.0 to 1.2 and growth rate 1% to 3% per day, according to PHE. The growth rate is most important, which brings more reality to R, as it's also over a set time period (a day). So, some very basic numbers to see where we're at, back working from the deaths curve, and looking at the growth rate previous and recently. Obviously take the below with a pinch of salt, it's a rough idea, which is not factoring for quite a few things.

Two weeks up to 30 Oct, the deaths deaths per day average grew at approximately 5.5% per day, which indicates infections were up 5.5% for the two weeks up to 14th Oct.
Two weeks up to 13 Nov , the deaths deaths per day average grew at approximately 1.4% per day, which indicates infections were up 1.4% for the two weeks up to 30th Oct.

Lets assume that lockdown-lite took us from 1.4% growth rate, to 1% (the low government/ PHE estimate), from 30th Oct to 2nd Dec. That roughly means that deaths per day average is still going up 1% per day, from now until around the 17th of December (assumes 15 days to die, on average). That will put us on about 560 deaths per day average on 17th.
I can't see how 2nd December onwards is less growth than pre lockdown-lite, but lets assume everyone can be really good in the lead in to say 20th (not likely), and we're 1.4% growth for this. So this puts up deaths on 4th of Jan to around 714 per day.
I can't see how 20th December to 31st is less growth than 2%, so lets assume there's 10 days at 2%, that hits by 15th Jan and gets us to 905 per day.

I think a massive march style lockdown is coming, immediately after new year, which to me looks like it could be for a couple of months unless they get the vaccine out pronto.
 
Statto1 said:
I don't see how England exits the current measures (lockdown-lite) on the 2nd December, if anything they will need to get stricter before then, if we want deaths below the current average, before Christmas, if that is the governments actual aim, but I'm not convinced it is.

I think we might actually come out of lockdown-lite on the 2nd (against science's wishes), and into tier 2/3, depending on location. I think the government are going to use this period to "play dumb" and ignore science, to avoid bad headlines. All they are doing is moving the peak deaths and harshest lockdown into January, basically. Effectively January is looking like it's going to be bad, very bad.
December is a massive month for the economy, so they wont' want to miss out on the ££, and January not so much, so I think they're going to give a little in December, and then take a lot in January and massage the death numbers to avoid bad headlines like "Christmas lockdown" or "1,000 deaths per day".

So, R is apparently still 1.0 to 1.2 and growth rate 1% to 3% per day, according to PHE. The growth rate is most important, which brings more reality to R, as it's also over a set time period (a day). So, some very basic numbers to see where we're at, back working from the deaths curve, and looking at the growth rate previous and recently. Obviously take the below with a pinch of salt, it's a rough idea, which is not factoring for quite a few things.

Two weeks up to 30 Oct, the deaths deaths per day average grew at approximately 5.5% per day, which indicates infections were up 5.5% for the two weeks up to 14th Oct.
Two weeks up to 13 Nov , the deaths deaths per day average grew at approximately 1.4% per day, which indicates infections were up 1.4% for the two weeks up to 30th Oct.

Lets assume that lockdown-lite took us from 1.4% growth rate, to 1% (the low government/ PHE estimate), from 30th Oct to 2nd Dec. That roughly means that deaths per day average is still going up 1% per day, from now until around the 17th of December (assumes 15 days to die, on average). That will put us on about 560 deaths per day average on 17th.
I can't see how 2nd December onwards is less growth than pre lockdown-lite, but lets assume everyone can be really good in the lead in to say 20th (not likely), and we're 1.4% growth for this. So this puts up deaths on 4th of Jan to around 714 per day.
I can't see how 20th December to 31st is less growth than 2%, so lets assume there's 10 days at 2%, that hits by 15th Jan and gets us to 905 per day.

I think a massive march style lockdown is coming, immediately after new year, which to me looks like it could be for a couple of months unless they get the vaccine out pronto.
Click to expand...
I think the triage data shows the r rate around about the 0.9 - 1.1mark from what I’ve seen
 
Statto1 said:
I don't see how England exits the current measures (lockdown-lite) on the 2nd December, if anything they will need to get stricter before then, if we want deaths below the current average, before Christmas, if that is the governments actual aim, but I'm not convinced it is.

I think we might actually come out of lockdown-lite on the 2nd (against science's wishes), and into tier 2/3, depending on location. I think the government are going to use this period to "play dumb" and ignore science, to avoid bad headlines. All they are doing is moving the peak deaths and harshest lockdown into January, basically. Effectively January is looking like it's going to be bad, very bad.
December is a massive month for the economy, so they wont' want to miss out on the ££, and January not so much, so I think they're going to give a little in December, and then take a lot in January and massage the death numbers to avoid bad headlines like "Christmas lockdown" or "1,000 deaths per day".

So, R is apparently still 1.0 to 1.2 and growth rate 1% to 3% per day, according to PHE. The growth rate is most important, which brings more reality to R, as it's also over a set time period (a day). So, some very basic numbers to see where we're at, back working from the deaths curve, and looking at the growth rate previous and recently. Obviously take the below with a pinch of salt, it's a rough idea, which is not factoring for quite a few things.

Two weeks up to 30 Oct, the deaths deaths per day average grew at approximately 5.5% per day, which indicates infections were up 5.5% for the two weeks up to 14th Oct.
Two weeks up to 13 Nov , the deaths deaths per day average grew at approximately 1.4% per day, which indicates infections were up 1.4% for the two weeks up to 30th Oct.

Lets assume that lockdown-lite took us from 1.4% growth rate, to 1% (the low government/ PHE estimate), from 30th Oct to 2nd Dec. That roughly means that deaths per day average is still going up 1% per day, from now until around the 17th of December (assumes 15 days to die, on average). That will put us on about 560 deaths per day average on 17th.
I can't see how 2nd December onwards is less growth than pre lockdown-lite, but lets assume everyone can be really good in the lead in to say 20th (not likely), and we're 1.4% growth for this. So this puts up deaths on 4th of Jan to around 714 per day.
I can't see how 20th December to 31st is less growth than 2%, so lets assume there's 10 days at 2%, that hits by 15th Jan and gets us to 905 per day.

I think a massive march style lockdown is coming, immediately after new year, which to me looks like it could be for a couple of months unless they get the vaccine out pronto.
Click to expand...

Think exactly the same will happen. Dont get this obsession to have normality for a few days of christmas which will inevitably lead to months of further restrictions. It basically makes this 4 week lockdown absolutely pointless.
 
There does seem to be a levelling of in new cases, if the testing data is accurate and taken at face value. What hasn't happened this time around is a fall off in positive cases that we saw at the last lockdown. If that continues we are likely to be at about 600 or more deaths a day, I cannot see how the government can spin that. They need the peak to pass to open up, that hasn't happened yet, but may do before the end of the month, but it would have to turn pretty pronto.
 
Can't think of a worse time to reopen pubs and restaurants than Christmas when it comes to restricting the virus.

The vaccine is imminent, just delay reopening till the New Year.
 
BoroBen92 said:
Can't think of a worse time to reopen pubs and restaurants than Christmas when it comes to restricting the virus.

The vaccine is imminent, just delay reopening till the New Year.
Click to expand...
How does a vaccine work if Johnson, who had the virus already, is having to isolate again?
 
The problem remains that too many people are still ignoring the lockdown. At least half of the people (including two coppers) on my street had people over at the weekend. The people (chavs) out the back had a fcuking house party.
 
RandySavage said:
Funny we've had restrictions on our sector for ages yet cases continue to rise.

🧐
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Small piece of the puzzle. We will never get R below 1 or a negative growth rate with schools and uni's open, in winter and also the lead up to Christmas.
Taking one look at any of the supermarkets now and then looking back at what they were like mid April is completely different.

They're accepting 1-3% rise, rather than the 6% and rising before any major measures were taken pre-winter.
 
RandySavage said:
How does a vaccine work if Johnson, who had the virus already, is having to isolate again?
Click to expand...

It's called a precaution, and seeing as although he is a ****, he's still the PM, and they probably don't want another Cummings/ Barnard Castle style bad example for the nation, if protocols were ignored again.

Also, it may be possible to catch it twice.
Also, the vaccine isn't even out yet, and apparently not 100% even if it was.
Also, something doesn't need to "work" 100% of the time, to be massively, massively helpful. See also: Seatbelts, Fire Extinguishers, Life Boats, PCR tests.
 
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