National Lockdown from Wednesday

JM14 said:
Think exactly the same will happen. Dont get this obsession to have normality for a few days of christmas which will inevitably lead to months of further restrictions. It basically makes this 4 week lockdown absolutely pointless.
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Yeah, I don't get it either, it's not been harsh enough to take cases down, just slow the curve. Maybe they just expect people to go wild over crimbo anyway, so are just using it to limit the damage that's coming and hope everyone will then bunker down in the new year, or the vaccine bails us out.

What confuses me is I don't get why education has suddenly become more important than lives and the economy. The latter two seem to be playing second fiddle to education, with education probably the easiest thing to rebuild. It doesn't make sense, unless it's a political hot potato.
There may be a simple answer to that, but I've not seen it yet?
 
uncle_rico said:
The problem remains that too many people are still ignoring the lockdown. At least half of the people (including two coppers) on my street had people over at the weekend. The people (chavs) out the back had a fcuking house party.
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Yeah, the first lockdown effort was poor by some people on my road and it's worse now, more visitors and they're inside rather than outside.

The supermarkets are a joke now too, I won't even bother going unless it's the first or last hour the day.
 
Statto1 said:
I don't see how England exits the current measures (lockdown-lite) on the 2nd December, if anything they will need to get stricter before then, if we want deaths below the current average, before Christmas, if that is the governments actual aim, but I'm not convinced it is.

I think we might actually come out of lockdown-lite on the 2nd (against science's wishes), and into tier 2/3, depending on location. I think the government are going to use this period to "play dumb" and ignore science, to avoid bad headlines. All they are doing is moving the peak deaths and harshest lockdown into January, basically. Effectively January is looking like it's going to be bad, very bad.
December is a massive month for the economy, so they wont' want to miss out on the ££, and January not so much, so I think they're going to give a little in December, and then take a lot in January and massage the death numbers to avoid bad headlines like "Christmas lockdown" or "1,000 deaths per day".

So, R is apparently still 1.0 to 1.2 and growth rate 1% to 3% per day, according to PHE. The growth rate is most important, which brings more reality to R, as it's also over a set time period (a day). So, some very basic numbers to see where we're at, back working from the deaths curve, and looking at the growth rate previous and recently. Obviously take the below with a pinch of salt, it's a rough idea, which is not factoring for quite a few things.

Two weeks up to 30 Oct, the deaths deaths per day average grew at approximately 5.5% per day, which indicates infections were up 5.5% for the two weeks up to 14th Oct.
Two weeks up to 13 Nov , the deaths deaths per day average grew at approximately 1.4% per day, which indicates infections were up 1.4% for the two weeks up to 30th Oct.

Lets assume that lockdown-lite took us from 1.4% growth rate, to 1% (the low government/ PHE estimate), from 30th Oct to 2nd Dec. That roughly means that deaths per day average is still going up 1% per day, from now until around the 17th of December (assumes 15 days to die, on average). That will put us on about 560 deaths per day average on 17th.
I can't see how 2nd December onwards is less growth than pre lockdown-lite, but lets assume everyone can be really good in the lead in to say 20th (not likely), and we're 1.4% growth for this. So this puts up deaths on 4th of Jan to around 714 per day.
I can't see how 20th December to 31st is less growth than 2%, so lets assume there's 10 days at 2%, that hits by 15th Jan and gets us to 905 per day.

I think a massive march style lockdown is coming, immediately after new year, which to me looks like it could be for a couple of months unless they get the vaccine out pronto.
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We'll have Tiers 1 to 4 in December I think. Areas like Leeds / Hull etc that are still high will stay in Tier 4 (that's kinda what we are in now) and the rest of us will drop to 2 and 3. On 21st Dec we'll all drop to Tier 1 and 2 despite infection rates and we'll be allowed to enjoy Christmas. I do wonder if we'd go back up to 3 and 4 on the 27th or if they will leave it another week and do it from 4th Jan.

From 4th Jan we'll have it hard until March when we see vaccines / lockdowns / temperature kick in and the virus will begin to go. As April and May come and go I expect levels to drop and as long as we keep rolling vaccine out the virus will be done for and we'll only get local flare ups coming into Autumn of people not vaccinated in the non risk age groups.
 
Statto1 said:
It's called a precaution, and seeing as although he is a ****, he's still the PM, and they probably don't want another Cummings/ Barnard Castle style bad example for the nation, if protocols were ignored again.

Also, it may be possible to catch it twice.
Also, the vaccine isn't even out yet, and apparently not 100% even if it was.
Also, something doesn't need to "work" 100% of the time, to be massively, massively helpful. See also: Seatbelts, Fire Extinguishers, Life Boats, PCR tests.
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Isn't the vaccine supposed to promote antibody response? If you've had the virus aren't you more than highly likely to have antibodies already? So if you can catch it twice (3 known cases worldwide last I checked) doesn't that then make the vaccine redundant?
 
MolteniArcore said:
We'll have Tiers 1 to 4 in December I think. Areas like Leeds / Hull etc that are still high will stay in Tier 4 (that's kinda what we are in now) and the rest of us will drop to 2 and 3. On 21st Dec we'll all drop to Tier 1 and 2 despite infection rates and we'll be allowed to enjoy Christmas. I do wonder if we'd go back up to 3 and 4 on the 27th or if they will leave it another week and do it from 4th Jan.

From 4th Jan we'll have it hard until March when we see vaccines / lockdowns / temperature kick in and the virus will begin to go. As April and May come and go I expect levels to drop and as long as we keep rolling vaccine out the virus will be done for and we'll only get local flare ups coming into Autumn of people not vaccinated in the non risk age groups.
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Yeah, I think something very very similar. The only difference is I don't see them stopping anyone visiting their family, and the whole of England will have the same rules, to stop any north/ south divide etc. But they might ask for smaller numbers (rule of 6, good luck with that), I just think it will be "Tier Christmas run up" from Dec 2 to 20 (so lockdown-lite-lite) and then "Tier Christmas" (free-for all) from Dec 20th to 31st. Then after that a big hammer comes down and January ends up super horrendous.

They might be banking on "saving some R/ growth" from schools and unis being shut over crimbo, to counter act the excess Christmas contact.
 
RandySavage said:
Isn't the vaccine supposed to promote antibody response? If you've had the virus aren't you more than highly likely to have antibodies already? So if you can catch it twice (3 known cases worldwide last I checked) doesn't that then make the vaccine redundant?
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I've not looked into how many have caught it twice, but I would guess it's pretty unlikely to be even naturally exposed to it twice, in that short a timeframe? So it would be exceptionally hard to figure out what happens to people who do get it, nearly die and then recover and then get it again 8 months later. There's not going to be a lot of data on that, I expect. So it's a responsible precaution, which will also stop people that have had covid before, thinking they're 100% immune.

This vaccine seems to gives antibodies, without having to have the full wrath/ danger of the virus and won't make you contagious to achieve those antibodies.
Getting the virus, having the increased danger and being contagious is miles worse, for everyone, but yes, is another way to gaining antibodies.

Having the actual virus might give better/ more antibodies than a vaccine, but I don't know if it works like that or not. Either way I think I would choose the vaccine to get 95% cover, than the virus to get 99% cover (Assumed number).

Plus, if you get a massive chunk of the population, and nearly all those at risk, vaccinated within a short timeframe then that's going to provide a good amount of "herd immunity" or at least blockers to the virus. Hard to have a mega lethal outbreak if 90% of those at risk are covered.
 
I think the next step in lockdown will be very much an indicator of how Johnson sees his future as PM, he's an arch populist and will not want to be seen as the Grinch Prime Minister who stole Christmas if he thinks he will remain leader beyond Q1 next year, in that case he'll ease lockdown and we will have a 3rd spike in January and February 2021 that he'll hope to deflect as a seasonal expectation and we'll go into lockdown 3 soon after New Year, the other option would be to extend the school break and continue with, if not enforce stricter guidelines, to try and use the natural lull between Christmas and New Year as a firebreak and take the consequences of those actions with an internal challenge to his leadership in the New Year. Whether he chooses the man of the people option or the tough leader alternative will have little to do with what is best for the country but a whole heap of how it impacts his popularity with the voting public, as I said on the Dominic Cummings post last week now Johnson is at a crossroads in his career, does he continue with Boris brand and ultimately a lucrative speaking tour circuit and high profile media career or does he start taking things seriously and becomes Johnson the serious politician ?
 
MolteniArcore said:
We'll have Tiers 1 to 4 in December I think. Areas like Leeds / Hull etc that are still high will stay in Tier 4 (that's kinda what we are in now) and the rest of us will drop to 2 and 3. On 21st Dec we'll all drop to Tier 1 and 2 despite infection rates and we'll be allowed to enjoy Christmas. I do wonder if we'd go back up to 3 and 4 on the 27th or if they will leave it another week and do it from 4th Jan.

From 4th Jan we'll have it hard until March when we see vaccines / lockdowns / temperature kick in and the virus will begin to go. As April and May come and go I expect levels to drop and as long as we keep rolling vaccine out the virus will be done for and we'll only get local flare ups coming into Autumn of people not vaccinated in the non risk age groups.
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I'm not convinced he will reopen pubs and restaurants before Christmas. It would be like another Eat out to Help Out period. With tougher tiers now being proposed just feel we will have a prolonged hospitality closure extended to the New Year under a New Tier 4.

Hope Im wrong but I wont be surprised if this happens.
 
Zoophonic said:
I'm not convinced he will reopen pubs and restaurants before Christmas. It would be like another Eat out to Help Out period. With tougher tiers now being proposed just feel we will have a prolonged hospitality closure extended to the New Year under a New Tier 4.

Hope Im wrong but I wont be surprised if this happens.
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I just can't see how they can keep the pubs shut, it would be the death of a lot of them.

Maybe having Uni students at home and doing online learning is the key to reopening hospitality? Or even with a vaccine on the way could they have a 6 week 'winter holiday' for all schools and scrap the summer holidays in 2021?
 
I wouldn't write off the lockdown bringing down figures yet. We're still less than two weeks in and as we know symptoms can take up to 14 days to show. Add in those that have delayed getting tested & delayed reporting figures, I'd expect we will know the answer for sure by the end of this week.
 
I am not sure closing unis and opening pubs would play well Molteni. As for Johnson the serious politician AM, I just can't see that. I agree that his decision will be based on what's best for him, not the UK, but I find it hard to see Johnson as a statesman.

I think he is done after christmas to be honest for a number of reasons. He has factions, which I would guess are always there, but the conservatives tend to wash their dirty knickers in private. The whole hard v soft brexit is begining to play out in public. The lockdown v no lockdown is fairly vocal too. The fighting between factions will ramp up early next year and I can't see his style of leadership uniting the party.

The tories will want brexit out of the way and to get rid of johnson and lay the blame at his and his cabinets door.
 
I know what you mean @Laughing, it wouldn't look good at all. But if I was a Tory I'd be worried that I'd branded as the party that destroyed yet another industry. You can't win the north if you destroy the good old British local. That's not what the northerners signed up for when they voted for him.

January will be key - deal or no deal if there is problems at the border, coupled with further lockdown, lots of deaths and hospitals struggling maybe the British public might finally wake up and take to the streets!!!
 
MolteniArcore said:
I know what you mean @Laughing, it wouldn't look good at all. But if I was a Tory I'd be worried that I'd branded as the party that destroyed yet another industry. You can't win the north if you destroy the good old British local. That's not what the northerners signed up for when they voted for him.

January will be key - deal or no deal if there is problems at the border, coupled with further lockdown, lots of deaths and hospitals struggling maybe the British public might finally wake up and take to the streets!!!
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The British public (and other country's peoples) are already on the streets. It's just not on the news.
 
I suspect a locked down Christmas will be a waste of time in as much as compliance will be very very low. Take away a working mans pint into the bargain then you are stuffed. This should have been considered some time ago.

For me I don't do the pub over Christmas but it is very much a tradition with many families, I dunno I suppose the ladies cook dinner and get plastered on baileys while the men folk go for a couple of beers pre dinner.

More importantly, keeping families separated at Christmas will not go down well, particularly those families that have had a particularly bad year with finances or heaven forbid a covid loss in the family.

My wife's dad is coming over for Christmas and I have no idea what we will do if we are still in lockdown.
 
Laughing said:
I suspect a locked down Christmas will be a waste of time in as much as compliance will be very very low. Take away a working mans pint into the bargain then you are stuffed. This should have been considered some time ago.

For me I don't do the pub over Christmas but it is very much a tradition with many families, I dunno I suppose the ladies cook dinner and get plastered on baileys while the men folk go for a couple of beers pre dinner.

More importantly, keeping families separated at Christmas will not go down well, particularly those families that have had a particularly bad year with finances or heaven forbid a covid loss in the family.

My wife's dad is coming over for Christmas and I have no idea what we will do if we are still in lockdown.
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My parents will be round Xmas day.
 
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