Laughing
Well-known member
Stop picking on me! Also the handy bar chart doesn't go back that far! I have no idea, just passing on what I heard BBG. I did know they, labour, came second in 17 and 19, but had no idea any further back than that.
N Shropshire By Election
- Thread starter Laughing
- Start date
See graph above Laughing
. If it went back further still I think Labour had an even bigger share of the vote going back toward 1997 when they nearly won the seat. I would think a lot of potential Labour voters have swallowed the current Lib Dem fib (which was echoed in the Guardian).Chris_Boro
Well-known member
It's a rural seat, the farming votes have been shifting to the Lib Dems, the demographics of the seat mean Labour have a vote ceiling and they are not likely to peel vote from the Tories.
The Lib Dems are doing better at pulling in the "grey" vote and are comfortably second in the local council although heavily Tory.
The Lib Dems are doing better at pulling in the "grey" vote and are comfortably second in the local council although heavily Tory.
sweet_left_foot
Well-known member
Nothing shy about Tories in Shropshire. As an adopted (south) Shropshire lass there is little hope of Tories being budged. A bloodied nose would be a good result.
How I would love to be wrong
How I would love to be wrong
Chris_Boro
Well-known member
I would be amazed if they lose the seat, it's as Tory as you can get.
BlindBoyGrunt
Well-known member
That probably explains why the Lib Dems came fourth behind UKIP a couple of times. F**k me, it's the sh!ts being British.
But I still think labour should have fought this seat.
Laughing
Well-known member
You might be right BBG. Given the shitstorm at downing street, I guess anything is possible.That probably explains why the Lib Dems came fourth behind UKIP a couple of times. F**k me, it's the sh!ts being British.
But I still think labour should have fought this seat.
Chris_Boro
Well-known member
That probably explains why the Lib Dems came fourth behind UKIP a couple of times. F**k me, it's the sh!ts being British.
But I still think labour should have fought this seat.
They probably should, but if they did the vote would split and the Tories would win comfortably.
I also have no doubt those on the ground from Labour and Lib Dem have decided between them what to do. The idea is to give Boris Johnson a bloody nose, but I'm 100% certain that whatever happens, this seat will be blue after the next general election.
Laughing
Well-known member
If the lib dems do win, you are right, it's a protest vote and it will go back to the tories at the next election. It's a way, I suppsoe, for the electorate to voice their concerrns.
TheLodger
Well-known member
If the Tories do win this seat tonight, the arguments in that in certain areas that you can pin a red rose and or a blue one to a donkey is not quite true.
In certain seats these last few years not only has it proven to be totally wrong, and proved generally left leaning people are much more policy and behaviour minded and vote for policy and decency, where as those on the right are, well, just racist nutters and will vote Tory even if the leader eats babies...
In certain seats these last few years not only has it proven to be totally wrong, and proved generally left leaning people are much more policy and behaviour minded and vote for policy and decency, where as those on the right are, well, just racist nutters and will vote Tory even if the leader eats babies...
sweet_left_foot
Well-known member
It's been a Tory seat for 200 years
TheLodger
Well-known member
That my point, lets see if people vote Tory because their gran did, or if finally they get a mind of their own.
BiggEggo
Well-known member
Exit polls are hard to fathom. Most of the tory voters I know are shy about admitting it or excuse themselves by commenting that they are the best of a bad bunch.
Of late they also trot out lines like all politicians are liars and both sides lied about you know what.
On a serious note the Labour, Greens and Lib Dems have probably splintered the vote sufficiently to get a non residing tory elected.
Lessons to be learnt by all opposition parties before the next election.
Of late they also trot out lines like all politicians are liars and both sides lied about you know what.
On a serious note the Labour, Greens and Lib Dems have probably splintered the vote sufficiently to get a non residing tory elected.
Lessons to be learnt by all opposition parties before the next election.
Thought you'd be all over that.
Chris_Boro
Well-known member
It's the grans and granddad's that are voting in that constituency, It's got nothing to do with parents passing on a voter ideology, it's that they are retired in a rural community that nearly always vote Tory due to the belief that it is the best for their inheritance, estates and pensions.
The other side is the farming sector that again has historically favoured the Tories due to the belief that the likes of Labour don't look after their interests (see Brexit).
Getting through in places like these has never been a priority for any other party, so everyone starts for an incredibly low base that has required Tory scandals to even be looked at.
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Zoophonic
Well-known member
Let's hope then that the big fat liars are brought down by the liars then. Would be divine justice.
motownjunk
Well-known member
Lib dems currently odds on to win 7/11 at the moment and shortening. Sound like somebody knows something.
Laughing
Well-known member
they are not shotening Motown, not on betfair anyroad. They shortened all day until about 7pm and then leveled out at about 1.6 and 2.5 respectively. 4/6 and 6/4
motownjunk
Well-known member
Fair enough been using oddschecker. Tory were slight favorites very early this morning on there.