FabioPorkpie
Well-known member
Fair play
Didn't see that. It seems likely though.
Btw, I am an idiot and my figure above is wildly wrong as I was using the population of Stockholm but the national death count. Just ignore any numbers I come up with (so much for my Pure Maths with Stats A level).
"My mate has just told me that he personally knows 11 people who had Covid 19. Only one of those eleven was sick enough to be tested for live virus, so only he figures in the country's data for confirmed infections). Only two tested for antibodies subsequently (Carl being one of them) both positive. "
So surely what you're saying is that three had it..... and eight may or may not have? I think quite a few people will think they've had it at the moment, who won't have.
That said, I have a mate who thought he'd had it (correct sequence of mild symptoms), along with a number of people at his company. The company wanted to get them back to work, and because of the nature of the business, they had some tests shipped over from Germany. Only one out of about ten tested positive, (the rest had all recovered by then), but none of them tested positive for antibodies. So... either they hadn't had it, or it was a faulty antibody test. My mate is hoping it's the latter, obviously!
The point being, that I think quite a lot of people will think they've had it, but won't have. Also, until there are [almost] 100% reliable tests, we're not going to know the full scale - interesting to see how that pans out.
Edit: Sorry - I just saw that you'd already replied to that first part.
Third option for ya Cuthbert.. it takes weeks after you've had it for antibodies to show up in the anti body tests even if they're reliable tests.
So essentially.. aaaaaargh
How are people getting these tests?Aaaargh indeed! I know that my mate was disappointed to get the negative test (for antibodies) because he was pretty sure that he'd had it and recovered. I reckon he probably needs to get another test some time to see. He did have his antibody test immediately after recovering, so if that thing about three weeks after for antibodies to show is typical, then he had the test too soon.
How are people getting these tests?
It doesn't indicate that at all to be fair. I don't think you can gain much medical evidence from a sample set of one.Not in Sweden, but in Swedish news
Nine-year-old with covid-19 met 172 people - none were infected
A 9-year-old boy who was infected by the coronavirus in the French Alps did not carry the infection - despite coming into contact with over 170 people, according to an investigation. This indicates that children do not pass on the virus to the same extent as adults.
There are plenty of people, not least in Sweden itself, that are not convinced that Sweden's approach is the best.
Many are comparing and contrasting their numbers to those of its Scandinavian neighbours, such as Norway, which has a lock-down policy. I think the graphic below needs no explanation.
Also, their fatality rate per 1,000 people is currently the 10th-highest in the world (or 7th if you exclude tiny countries like San Marino and Sint Maarten, with populations under 80,000) and since as mentioned earlier, they only count deaths where a positive test result was obtained (and tests are not always done on the already-deceased) the true fatality rate must inevitably be somewhat higher than the official number.
Worldometers coronavirus statistics
Understanding Sweden's coronavirus figures
The facts don't support that. Had their highest number of reported deaths yesterday.I suggest you watch the whole Q&A with Giasecke upthread. As he points out, you won't know until much later. Sweden is much further ahead on the curve. It may be that Norway will have a more prolonged experience. One big difference is that Norway's elderly are housed in small numbers ... in contrast with Sweden, where they are in larger homes. They admit that they have not done as well as they'd hoped to keep it out of elderly housing. Pretty much everyone will get the disease eventually. Only when that happens can you make your final appraisal. And comparing the death rates between countries is pointless as they collect the data in different ways.
The facts don't support that. Had their highest number of reported deaths yesterday.