Looking at the race for 2nd place objectively

Way_Out_West said:
It looks to me like it predicts 91 points for them. I would be massively surprised if they finish with fewer than 88, so we'd need 24+ from 9 games. It's just not going to happen.
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Massively surprised that a team that has managed 16 points in their last 10 games wasn't able to manage 18 in 9?

I think they'll finish 2nd, but I don't think they'll be getting as high as 88 points.
 
Way_Out_West said:
Yep. Have you seen their upcoming fixtures? If they hand picked them it could barely be more favourable.
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Burnley, Norwich, West Brom, Bristol City and Preston are all decent opposition.

Even if you assume they beat all of Wigan, Huddersfield and Birmingham, they'd still need 9 points from 15 in those other games.
 
Marvanelli said:
To finish top 2:

Current odds:

Sheff Utd 2/11
Middlesbrough 4/1
Luton 14/1

We still have a sniff, judging the bookies odds.

We were 2/1 before we played Stoke.
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It's a good price to bet to lay.
There's a good chance we will get into a better position than we are now over the next couple of weeks.
 
TeaCider said:
Burnley, Norwich, West Brom, Bristol City and Preston are all decent opposition.

Even if you assume they beat all of Wigan, Huddersfield and Birmingham, they'd still need 9 points from 15 in those other games.
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I'm assuming they'll win those you mention, plus Cardiff as a given. So there's 12.

Min 6 points from the other 5 games to make up the 18. Including Preston, Bristol City and WBA all at home.

If they don't, well they don't deserve it. But nothing throughout the season or even recently suggests they won't.
 
Objectively we've always been a long shot for automatic promotion but we have to keep plugging away and putting points on the board. Getting over the line is a difficult task in any sport, but especially at the end of a long Championship season with a cup run thrown in for good measure. The only thing that matters to me is we get at least 20 points from the last 9 games. 84 points is the minimum we need to have a chance IMO, although probably 85 or 86 to make that chance more realistic.

If we don't get at least 9 points from the next 4 games, the pressure is off Sheffield United. But if we get 9, 10 or 12, I am sure we will close the gap and then those "easy" games in the last few weeks won't be quite so comfortable.
 
Laughing said:
Sheffield United are not very good. Everytime I have seen them play they have failed to dominate. They will loose more games than we do in the run in. Will we run out of games before catching them? It's possible, I suppose.

In the previous nine games we have amassed 9 more points than them. The same return in the next 9 games puts us comfortably in second place. So objectively, yup we can catch them.
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agree, they've ground out results through not making mistakes rather than good football. The difference in our league position is from the following stats Sheff Utd 15 clean sheets, Boro 9. We let in more soft goals than them, we stand up to an onslaught worse than they do. We are objectively far better with the ball than they are, at possession, creating opportunities and taking them, that's despite the complete mess that Wilder made of our club.
 
We've been in this position before. What makes it easier for me this time is that I'd given up on automatic promotion after the terrible start we had under Wilder. We had to taotally re-invent ourselves 1/3 of the way in. It's a miracle we've got to within touching distance.
 
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Wiseman_Vaughn said:
We've been in this position before. What makes it easier for me this time is that I'd given up on automatic promotion after the terrible start we had under Wilder. We had to taotally re-invent ourselves 1/3 of the way in. It's a miracle we've got to within touching distance.
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91/92, 97/98 and 2015/16 all went to last game deciders

I think there was only Tranmere in 95 when we were already up
 
Laughing said:
Sheffield United are not very good. Everytime I have seen them play they have failed to dominate. They will loose more games than we do in the run in. Will we run out of games before catching them? It's possible, I suppose.

In the previous nine games we have amassed 9 more points than them. The same return in the next 9 games puts us comfortably in second place. So objectively, yup we can catch them.
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I think their next 9 are easier than their last 9. (That said, end of season nerves could make 'easier looking' games harder).
 
Cuthbert said:
I think their next 9 are easier than their last 9. (That said, end of season nerves could make 'easier looking' games harder).
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They probably are marginally easier. The basic point I was making is that if both teams show the same results for the next nine as the last nine, we pass them. Based on that basic statistic, clearly it is entirely possible that we can pass them.

As I have been saying for weeks, we will go up in 2nd place. I have not been impressed with utd at all.
 
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