uncle_rico
Well-known member
It’s pretty clear it’s not
I’m a fan of MY moneyball approach. But yeah, you’re right that’s what I meant by picking and choosing players based on stats without building a model first.I'm not quite sure what you mean by that.
If I remember rightly, you are a fan of the Moneyball approach? My understanding of the book (somewhat lost in the film) is that statistics were always used in baseball selection. What changed was the identification of which statistics actually made a difference to results.
So I think you do have to pick and choose which statistics you use, and I'd suggest goals per game is not a good one to pick. More detail is needed.
Furthermore in football, I think it's likely to depend on what else you have. A striker with great stats from running in behind and scoring isn't going to replicate that in a team who mainly attacks by getting in plenty of crosses, right?
Likewise, I believe possession stats are fools gold. On any given matchday, more teams with 50%+ possession lose than win. Possession in the final third, however, is a different story.