How will our economy recover?

[SuperStu]

I agree to some point but during that period we have also seen a massive growth in people wanting new cars , multiple holidays , spending all they have on luxury items etc … just drive around ingleby, marton , nunthorpe, Acklam etc . People haven’t worried ghat things could get worse . Hell I was in the Trafford centre on Saturday and it was absolutely rammed with folks spending like no tomorrow , the car parks were full and every restaurant had a queue come 5pm. Was scary that we are all talking about hard times for years but for many that’s an afterthought to the “must have now” culture

Think a lot of this is in your head.

Number of Cars in the UK 2023

There were 31,695,988 cars registered in the UK in 2020. See how the number of cars has increased over the past 25 years, and how many cars are in the average household in the UK.

www.nimblefins.co.uk

Look at this, car ownership steadily increasing but looking at that graph there's no reason to say it's disproportionate in recent years.

Your first post was on about people 40 or under. I'd bet most of the homeowners in Ingleby, Marton and Nunthorpe aren't under 40s.

I've just googled the Trafford centre to see these restaurants you're on about. McDonalds, Burger King, Wagamamas, KFC, Pizza Express, Wetherspoons, Frankie & Bennys, TGI Fridays, 5 Guys... Let's be honest none of these places is going to break the bank is it.

I don't really think there's a lot of substance in an argument that if people avoided a meal in Pizza Hut that'd be them insulated from the constant financial crises of the UK.

Besides it all falls down just on the logic of how do you know these are the same people? You've driven around an area and seen nice cars, then gone somewhere else and seen a queue for Franco Mancas and for some reason decided they're the same bunch and ipso facto that proves that people under 40(?) can't budget.

 

[Nano]

I agree to some point but during that period we have also seen a massive growth in people wanting new cars , multiple holidays , spending all they have on luxury items etc … just drive around ingleby, marton , nunthorpe, Acklam etc . People haven’t worried ghat things could get worse . Hell I was in the Trafford centre on Saturday and it was absolutely rammed with folks spending like no tomorrow , the car parks were full and every restaurant had a queue come 5pm. Was scary that we are all talking about hard times for years but for many that’s an afterthought to the “must have now” culture

I'm sure many people have thought about things getting worse but they thought things like "could I afford an extra couple of hundred quid per month", I know that's what I always thought about when planning. Could I survive 6 months without a job, what if my mortgage went up by 20% etc. I don't think anyone could have been expected to plan for a tripling of fuel bills, 10% inflation on all food and services and an extra couple of hundred on the mortgage at the same time.

But why shouldn't people be spending money on luxuries? People could afford it. Nobody would have foreseen all of these things happening all at once and people working full time and earning decent money shouldn't just be surviving.

I don't think you can blame individuals for not foreseeing the perfect storm of issues that are hitting us now.

 

[Randy]

It's time the talk turned to action.

Agreed.
It was a tweet from Peston that I had seen it on whilst looking through trending topics on Twitter

 

[Jonny Ingbar]

9

i would argue the placing bets on things failing ie financial shorting is an immoral practice which brings nothing but misery

Absolutely. Capitalism is fine, but it needs to be ethical.

 

[ThePrisoner]

Absolutely. Capitalism is fine, but it needs to be ethical.

That's an oxymoron.

 

[Cardiffdaffs]

She's going to dump the mini budget to avoid the calls for a general election, I think

I also think Nano is right that since 2000 or 9/11 things keep being unstable and volatile

Whilst some of it is due to bad politicians the problem seems to me to be more the sytem, capitalism/globalism rather than the individuals which is why if another party takes over they need to change the sytem

There was a serious rumour earlier of a big U-turn incoming and the market reacted positively. Since then however the hapless Kwarteng had denied this. The market has sunk yet again.

Just imagine the hypothetical ramifications of spreading a rumour about a U Turn and sending the pound soaring again for a day only for it to be proved false 24 hours later and the pound to sink back down again. Can’t imagine who might hypothetically benefit from such a scenario…

 

[Ferrosol]

No spending cuts, no tax cuts, growing inflation, cost of living crisis, a fiscally unsustainable budget, pound and markets on their knees, GDP dropping, climbing interest rates, Brexit, Putin and recession all but upon us.
How on earth will this country start to climb out of the hole it is in? When will this government stop digging the hole deeper?

give money to poor people. You give money to the rich and they pile it up in bank accounts and use it to keep score. You give money to the poor then they spend it, they buy new fridges, they buy new cars and they pay to take their kids on holiday. This gets the money circulating and everyone* benefits

*Everyone who's not a millionaire squatting on a pile of stolen wealth.

 

[Borotommo]

Truss thinks she’s making U-turns – but she’s driving into a wall | Tom Peck

When you somehow contrive to create a situation in which the only hope you give people is the hope of a U-turn, that is, quite literally the end of the road, writes Tom Peck

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Johnny Vincents Motorbike]

socialism and green industrial policies - people before profit.


Stagflation is what we are heading into.

 

[JM14]

I think there is another factor . A lot of younger folks of say 40 or under don’t seem to know how to budget or think ahead that times might change. There is a “deal with it tomorrow attitude “ for some , they bough the flash car , they bought a flash house , they spend like it’s water , which may have been ok when times were good but now the cyclical nature of the economy is really hurting they don’t know how to deal with it and for some they are burying their heads int he sand . I’ve just heard a woman talk about coming back from holiday “that cost a fortune and she’s now skint and paying it off”. Times are really going to be tough for a lot of people but I do think that for some they have chosen to ignore that things might change . Lots of really unfortunate folk also I may add as balance

That’s absolute rubbish, most young people who want to get on the property ladder have to max their mortgage because of the huge rise in house prices compared to the real terms loss in wages. The alternative is an unregulated rental market which will be an even higher cost than a mortgage and never allow for home ownership. Obviously not as much of a problem in some areas of the north east with cheap house prices, but areas of the country where most people have moved for work prices are unbelievable. These people simply won’t be able to absorb an increase in interest rates

Assume you're from a generation where a few years wages could buy a house outright?

 

[SuperStu]

Assume you're from a generation where a few years wages could buy a house outright?

probably helped themselves to a 125% interest-only mortgage and then spent the next 50 years congratulating themselves on being so good at budgeting!

 

[BoroMart]

Absolutely. Capitalism is fine, but it needs to be ethical.

It's why middle ground pragmatic policy needs proper regulations and governance in place.....it's also why claims that labour are far left, even under corbyn are nonsenes. They support capitalism, just with proper regulations to protect workers and consumers from the corrupt and greedy practices of some big business owners. They generally support that smaller businesses should co-exist with massive chains too, which is a good thing, diversifying the supply chain to consumers is important for choice, for growth, and to prevent monopolies that allow big business to break free of competitive restraints.

 

[Ziggy]

The decline in house prices is going to cause them problems. The Tories have always used methods for artificially keeping house prices on an upward curve, just a perfect feel good factor, that we have taken for granted. The ‘cheap’ money available has dried up, the market is grinding to a halt. Negative equity is kicking in.
Buy to let is going down the pan. Commercial property values are dropping quicker than house prices…the rentier class are crapping themselves. Which in it’s own way gives a little burst of
schadenfreude.

 

[Jonny Ingbar]

It's why middle ground pragmatic policy needs proper regulations and governance in place.....it's also why claims that labour are far left, even under corbyn are nonsenes. They support capitalism, just with proper regulations to protect workers and consumers from the corrupt and greedy practices of some big business owners. They generally support that smaller businesses should co-exist with massive chains too, which is a good thing, diversifying the supply chain to consumers is important for choice, for growth, and to prevent monopolies that allow big business to break free of competitive restraints.

Yep, agree with all of that. Capitalism is fine as long as it is regulated and is ethical, which is currently isn't.

 

[Glover_elbow]

It's why middle ground pragmatic policy needs proper regulations and governance in place.....it's also why claims that labour are far left, even under corbyn are nonsenes. They support capitalism, just with proper regulations to protect workers and consumers from the corrupt and greedy practices of some big business owners. They generally support that smaller businesses should co-exist with massive chains too, which is a good thing, diversifying the supply chain to consumers is important for choice, for growth, and to prevent monopolies that allow big business to break free of competitive restraints.

Does regulation and governance in isolation work in a global marketplace, i am not sure it does. If we want ethical global capitalism then most if not all countries need to be abide by the same rules and regulations, this a fundamental principle of the EU. Unfortunately there are always countries willing to concede workers rights for market leverage including the UK.

 

[Badonde]

My business is ecommerce.
FANGS companies (Google, Amazon etc) now dominate advertising in the UK.
Their typical commission is approaching 30% (ie, for every £120 gross sale we make (£100 ex vat) - they take £30.
Un-bloomin-believable!!
The approach to tax for these companies is, cough-cough, questionable.

Just look at the huge Amazon sites in Durham, Darlington and Wynyard.
Vampire squid.

 

[BoroMart]

Does regulation and governance in isolation work in a global marketplace, i am not sure it does.

That's why leaving the EU was such a dumb idea. We had massive influence and control over the global market as part of the biggest trading bloc the world has ever seen. It drove standards up in far east production, it blocked the excesses of US capitalism and their industrial scale carcinogenic food products.

Now our influence is diminished, and as a result there is pressure to lower regulations and allow inferior foodstuffs, open up NHS to foreign tendering etc.

Regulation works in a global marketplace when you are a big enough player. This was the whole reasoning for leaving the EU, to dump regulations, a firesale on standards, consumer protection, and workers rights to drive profitability for the business owners and investors. All hidden under some smoke and mirrors about having greater control in westminster.....which is of course controlled via big business finances via Tufton St.

 

[Johnnyweetabix]

That’s absolute rubbish, most young people who want to get on the property ladder have to max their mortgage because of the huge rise in house prices compared to the real terms loss in wages. The alternative is an unregulated rental market which will be an even higher cost than a mortgage and never allow for home ownership. Obviously not as much of a problem in some areas of the north east with cheap house prices, but areas of the country where most people have moved for work prices are unbelievable. These people simply won’t be able to absorb an increase in interest rates

Assume you're from a generation where a few years wages could buy a house outright?

Nope not at all but I will be honest and I have lived here in the north east my whole life . There’s stacks of 100k or less houses for sale here but appreciate I haven’t got much expertise of buying a house outside the north east . Right move suggests there’s loads at this price or less when you type in a major city and a radius of 20 miles. Not trying to be a d&ck I simply looked on right move which may be misleading

 

[Glover_elbow]

That's why leaving the EU was such a dumb idea. We had massive influence and control over the global market as part of the biggest trading bloc the world has ever seen. It drove standards up in far east production, it blocked the excesses of US capitalism and their industrial scale carcinogenic food products.

Now our influence is diminished, and as a result there is pressure to lower regulations and allow inferior foodstuffs, open up NHS to foreign tendering etc.

Regulation works in a global marketplace when you are a big enough player. This was the whole reasoning for leaving the EU, to dump regulations, a firesale on standards, consumer protection, and workers rights to drive profitability for the business owners and investors. All hidden under some smoke and mirrors about having greater control in westminster.....which is of course controlled via big business finances via Tufton St.

completely agree Brexit was done to make us low tax, poor workers rights, high enterprise economy like the far east. Another one that gets me is when the tories say they are going to introduce more Chinese education methods, good one another fine example to follow.

 

[Nano]

That's why leaving the EU was such a dumb idea. We had massive influence and control over the global market as part of the biggest trading bloc the world has ever seen. It drove standards up in far east production, it blocked the excesses of US capitalism and their industrial scale carcinogenic food products.

Now our influence is diminished, and as a result there is pressure to lower regulations and allow inferior foodstuffs, open up NHS to foreign tendering etc.

Regulation works in a global marketplace when you are a big enough player. This was the whole reasoning for leaving the EU, to dump regulations, a firesale on standards, consumer protection, and workers rights to drive profitability for the business owners and investors. All hidden under some smoke and mirrors about having greater control in westminster.....which is of course controlled via big business finances via Tufton St.

The flip-side is that the bigger you are the less flexible you can be. What works best for a continent doesn't work best for a local country/city/town/village. The further you are from the decision making process the less your voice is heard. Things that are good for an economy might not be good for the individuals that represents, the bigger that organisation then the more decisions that are made that benefit the most but ignore all of the individual nuances etc, it isn't malicious but it happens. We seem to swing between arguing for more centralised power and devolving power back to regions.

Some times it benefits people and it doesn't. An interesting one recently was Apple being forced to comply to the usb-c charging format, i.e. a universal charging port. The EU has the power to enforce that due to its size. On the face of it that sounds fully reasonable. Why shouldn't all manufacturers use the same one? That would surely benefit consumers. However, would we have usb-c now if the EU had intervened 5/10/20 years ago and picked a universal charger or would we all be stuck on a much slower charging port? Will there be any more progress or are we stuck with usb-c indefinitely?

There are clearly a lot of benefits in terms of raising standards. You could argue though that the same thing can be achieved without political ties by just having agreements between co-operative nations.