France & Germany heading into national lockdown

BoroMart

Well-known member
Definately coming to us.

The Xmas thing gets right up my nose tho.
The Chinese cancelled their New Year Celebrations
The Irish cancelled St Patrick’s day
The Muslim world cancelled Haj (Xmas on speed)
We cancelled eid for 000s of muslims here. (basically the equivalent of xmas eve)

This virus is either serious or not.
We really gonna risk it for Prosecco, a dry turkey and a family argument.
...and lets be honest most of us don't give too craps about baby jeeesus, including this government, it's a purely commercial decision.
 

Fridgeman

New member
How do you make a decision on lock down without all the facts?

Personally I don't know what is best but here is what I would love to know

Death figures published are for people dying with covid19, but how about deaths figures for people dying of covid19? as this must be more relevant

Will people who have had covid19 get re infected? One good way to find out is by freeing these people up from the current measures, we would know very soon.

we might have to live with this for ever, in that scenario we need a plan, what is the plan as lock downs are only a sticking plaster for a broken limb.

on the BBC news channel today I read the infections were at 100,000 daily , 500,000 by the end of November by following with the current restrictions and these numbers being accurate is here immunity on the horizon, if so how long?

there are more questions but these four cover most bases for me.
 

SmallTown

Well-known member
Most indications are that we will have some sort of vaccine next year though. If it was fairly conclusive we wouldn’t have a vaccine for ten years I’m sure the worldwide strategy would be very different.
Ten years is stretching it but I gave seen a clinical trial that lasted 14 so its not unthinkable.

Remember this is an entirely new virus too so we don't have much of an understanding of how it works.
 

boroboy6872

Active member
Good publication by the WHO on where we are currently with Vaccines with links to each vaccines current status
 

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SmallTown

Well-known member
Will we follow suit? The rise in the number of cases and deaths is very worrying and its plain to see the current tier 1/2/3 system doesn't appear to be working.
I'm not so sure about this. Cases seem to be levelling off. Hopefully we are at the top of the curve. Deaths, sadly, will continue to increase alarmingly for the next few weeks as we have had a lot of cases at the moment. If the cases start dropping, any talk of a lockdown is too late, as those that are going to die will already have it
 

Artie Fufkin

Well-known member
I'm not so sure about this. Cases seem to be levelling off. Hopefully we are at the top of the curve. Deaths, sadly, will continue to increase alarmingly for the next few weeks as we have had a lot of cases at the moment. If the cases start dropping, any talk of a lockdown is too late, as those that are going to die will already have it

I'm not sure that's the case at all is it? At least not from this article:

The study, by Imperial College London, says the pace of the epidemic is accelerating and estimates the number of people infected is now doubling every nine days.

It shows cases are rising in every age group and in every region of England.
While cases are currently highest in the North, infections are surging more rapidly in the South.


It found that, on average, every infected person in London was passing on the virus to nearly three other people - the highest estimated rate in England.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54723962
 

SmallTown

Well-known member
I'm not sure that's the case at all is it? At least not from this article:

The study, by Imperial College London, says the pace of the epidemic is accelerating and estimates the number of people infected is now doubling every nine days.

It shows cases are rising in every age group and in every region of England.
While cases are currently highest in the North, infections are surging more rapidly in the South.


It found that, on average, every infected person in London was passing on the virus to nearly three other people - the highest estimated rate in England.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54723962
I was going on the 7 day average for daily new cases. Seems to be at the top of a peak, at least not rising quickly
 

bear66

Well-known member
I was going on the 7 day average for daily new cases. Seems to be at the top of a peak, at least not rising quickly
If they're right that areas in the South have an R number of 2.6, this could be the lull before the storm. Germany are trying to lull to avoid a storm.
 

MolteniArcore

Active member
A few more weeks wouldn't have made one bit of difference as is been proven all over Europe right now.
The sooner people accept the virus isn't going away the better.

Certainly not. London is a great example of why a few weeks extra would of helped. The R was lower in London than it was in the North when lockdown was released. And now you see how the infection rates differ in both regions.
 

Juninho10

Well-known member
I think if it starts to really affect London - then it will be National lockdown

Anything affecting the regions - will all be local lockdown......... that seems to be the thinking, all about protecting London
 

bear66

Well-known member
I think if it starts to really affect London - then it will be National lockdown

Anything affecting the regions - will all be local lockdown......... that seems to be the thinking, all about protecting London
I also think the South West rises will show that no area is immune to this rise in cases. Once that happens, no area will be being penalised by restrictions.
 
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