Forss medical ongoing now

Soutra said:
It is a gamble because this guy hasn't showed any indication that he's a prolific scorer, he has had injury problems, he hasn't played regularly for a year and - most of all - it's £2 million less in the budget to find a 20+ goals striker.
Click to expand...
Last time he had a full fit season at this level, he was in the 95th percentile for non penalty goals, 85th percentile for xG, and 88th percentile for conversion rate.

That's plenty of evidence to indicate he is a prolific scorer, can he do it week in, week out, rather than as a backup? That's another question. But he undoubtedly has the ability to put it in the onion bag, and if we get 16 from him as a starter, double what he got for Brentford as a sub (and a very realistic target) then he would be our second highest league goal scorer since Ravanelli.

It's all about points not one person getting 20+. Many teams get promoted without a 20 goal striker (Forest CF had 12 goals, Sar had 13 for watford the year before, Bamford got 16 for Leeds when they went up and the same year Sarr and Robson-Kanu got 10 each for West Brom. 20+ is a nice to have, not a pre-requisite.

In those same 4 seasons, Grabban, Watkins, Armstrong, Moore, Brereton, Piroe and Weiman all got 20+ goals and failed to get promoted. There's a very week (if any) correlation between having a 20 goal striker and promotion.

We let in 50 goals last year, with a rubbish goalkeeper, poor LWB options and no leader at the back. Swap Steffen for Lumley, Lenihan for one of the CBs, and Giles for Bola/Taylor and we will let on a lot less than 50. That takes pressure of "needing" a 20+ goal CF.
 
...I'd also say the squad we have today, plus say another 2 strikers to rotate, my goal targets would be:

CBs: Lenihan 1, Fry 1, Dijksteel 1, McNair 6
LWB: Giles 4, Bola 1
RWB: Jones 4, Smith 1
CM: Howson 1, Crooks 9, Tav 6, McGree 7,
CF: Forss, and 2 others 30 between them, Watmore 6

That's 78 goals plus a handful of OGs. That's enough fire power for promotion and not relying on one 20+ striker who might get injured and ruin everything
 
I'd much rather have the goals spread right around the team. It's great having a forward that will get you 20+ goals, the main man......but what happens if he were injured for 3-4 months? Need Jones, Giles and Tav chip in more and the CBs getting a few between them.
If the forwards (four of them) each get 10......happy days.
A 20+ goalscorer AND the team chipping in - we're Champions by Easter 😁😁
 
BoroMart said:
...I'd also say the squad we have today, plus say another 2 strikers to rotate, my goal targets would be:

CBs: Lenihan 1, Fry 1, Dijksteel 1, McNair 6
LWB: Giles 4, Bola 1
RWB: Jones 4, Smith 1
CM: Howson 1, Crooks 9, Tav 6, McGree 7,
CF: Forss, and 2 others 30 between them, Watmore 6

That's 78 goals plus a handful of OGs. That's enough fire power for promotion and not relying on one 20+ striker who might get injured and ruin everything
Click to expand...

We've only lost 17 goals from departing players last season.
Our strikers only scored 8 (Sporar), 3 (Balogun), and 2 each (Ikpeazu and Connolly)... then we've lost an extra goal each from Payero and Hernandez.

Surely we can find more than 17 goals from Forss + 2 other strikers, with the addition of Ryan Giles (who assisted 10 goals last season).
 
Jonny Ingbar said:
Im not convinced he will be 'first choice' actually.

He's young and still developing, so he has time to improve his weakness.

Gyorkores was nowhere this time last summer, so it's good we're looking to develop talent, rather thank **** money up the wall (you out there Britt?)
Click to expand...
I seen an old forest game on sky versus derby the other day and britt was playing...looked absolute tosh with his ifrst touch...how we paid that kind of money for him i'll never know...his general game was appalling.
 
BoroMart said:
Last time he had a full fit season at this level, he was in the 95th percentile for non penalty goals, 85th percentile for xG, and 88th percentile for conversion rate.

That's plenty of evidence to indicate he is a prolific scorer, can he do it week in, week out, rather than as a backup? That's another question. But he undoubtedly has the ability to put it in the onion bag, and if we get 16 from him as a starter, double what he got for Brentford as a sub (and a very realistic target) then he would be our second highest league goal scorer since Ravanelli.

It's all about points not one person getting 20+. Many teams get promoted without a 20 goal striker (Forest CF had 12 goals, Sar had 13 for watford the year before, Bamford got 16 for Leeds when they went up and the same year Sarr and Robson-Kanu got 10 each for West Brom. 20+ is a nice to have, not a pre-requisite.

In those same 4 seasons, Grabban, Watkins, Armstrong, Moore, Brereton, Piroe and Weiman all got 20+ goals and failed to get promoted. There's a very week (if any) correlation between having a 20 goal striker and promotion.

We let in 50 goals last year, with a rubbish goalkeeper, poor LWB options and no leader at the back. Swap Steffen for Lumley, Lenihan for one of the CBs, and Giles for Bola/Taylor and we will let on a lot less than 50. That takes pressure of "needing" a 20+ goal CF.
Click to expand...
I've said this for ages.
We weren't that far away last year when we had crap forwards, a dodgy keeper and only Jones with creativity so when he was found out we were knackered. So with a keeper, a stronger defence and balance down the left, even if we started with Watmore, Coburn, Akpom and Kavanagh and didn't bring more strikers in i think we'd still finish around 6/7th so if we bring Forss + 1/2 more in, i think we can have a really, really good season! As long as we keep the core, fit.
 
VestasBoro said:
I've said this for ages.
We weren't that far away last year when we had crap forwards, a dodgy keeper and only Jones with creativity so when he was found out we were knackered. So with a keeper, a stronger defence and balance down the left, even if we started with Watmore, Coburn, Akpom and Kavanagh and didn't bring more strikers in i think we'd still finish around 6/7th so if we bring Forss + 1/2 more in, i think we can have a really, really good season! As long as we keep the core, fit.
Click to expand...
The away performance at Preston really concerned me last season - we don't want to see too many of them.
 
BoroMart said:
In those same 4 seasons, Grabban, Watkins, Armstrong, Moore, Brereton, Piroe and Weiman all got 20+ goals and failed to get promoted. There's a very week (if any) correlation between having a 20 goal striker and promotion.
Click to expand...
There's a very strong - almost perfect - correlation between teams in the division that score the most goals, and the teams that are promoted. I think 8 of the 9 top scoring teams in the last three seasons have been promoted.

You may not need a 20 goals striker, but you'd better be scoring from all over the pitch because all the evidence suggests you don't get promoted if you don't score lots of goals.

The Fulham manager summed it all up last season perfectly. The objective was 25 wins, and they did it (27 actually), and to set out to score as many goals as possible. They did that too.
 
Ash88 said:
He scored a few goals in a system that was designed for him. He's openly and very publicly available for sale... and it's obvious no other teams want him either, because he's not good enough.


We have identified players...
We bid for Gyokores and they wanted £12m+.
We bid for Dwight Gayle and his wages were too high.
We've enquired about Semenyo, he's not for sale.
We offered McGoldrick a contract, he chose Derby because we couldn't guarantee him game time.
We offered Troy Parrott a contract, he chose Preston for more game time.
We offered Ellis Simms a contract too...
We've also got offers in for Muniz and Armstrong but they want to sign replacements.
Click to expand...
But surely Ash88 - all we need is a "magic wand" and all the forwards will come flocking to the Riverside?:unsure:
Its obvious Wilder has never managed a successful team or got any of them promoted - [from the third division to the Prem, for example].:ROFLMAO:
Otherwise he would have bought in who he wanted, apologised 100 times for Balogan and Connolly [not James...], Burnley, Lumley`s howler against Hull, the lack of pies at Man Utd, the weather, the price of eggs and the dreadful wait for the new Boro home shirt.
Boo!
Sack him now.
:love:
 
VestasBoro said:
I've said this for ages.
We weren't that far away last year when we had crap forwards, a dodgy keeper and only Jones with creativity so when he was found out we were knackered. So with a keeper, a stronger defence and balance down the left, even if we started with Watmore, Coburn, Akpom and Kavanagh and didn't bring more strikers in i think we'd still finish around 6/7th so if we bring Forss + 1/2 more in, i think we can have a really, really good season! As long as we keep the core, fit.
Click to expand...
Spot on(y)
 
allied_assault said:
The away performance at Preston really concerned me last season - we don't want to see too many of them.
Click to expand...
W struggled with strong and aggressive forwards because we lacked strong and aggressive CBs. We keep Lenihan fit and we won't get bullied like that again.
 
Soutra said:
There's a very strong - almost perfect - correlation between teams in the division that score the most goals, and the teams that are promoted. I think 8 of the 9 top scoring teams in the last three seasons have been promoted.

You may not need a 20 goals striker, but you'd better be scoring from all over the pitch because all the evidence suggests you don't get promoted if you don't score lots of goals.

The Fulham manager summed it all up last season perfectly. The objective was 25 wins, and they did it (27 actually), and to set out to score as many goals as possible. They did that too.
Click to expand...
agreed although I would argue that a lot of goals is 70+ not 100 like Fulham.
It's also fair to say the teams that go up tend to let less than a goal a game.
Fulham 43, Bournemouth 39, Forest 40, Norwich 36, Watford 30. brentford 42, Leeds 35, West Brom 45, Fulham 48

So 8 of the last 9 promoted teams conceded less than 1 per game.

Scoring goes
Fulham 106, Bournemouth 74, Forest 73, Norwich 75, Watford 63. brentford 79, Leeds 77, West Brom 77, Fulham 64

So 2 teams were hardly free flowing with 63 and 64 goals. Only 4 or 5 more than we got last season. Another 3 got mid 70s, another 3 high 70s and then Fulham off the charts.

Looking at the stats getting under 46 conceded would be a massive step to promotion. We let in 50 last year, can we knock 4+ goals off from last season? Considering the embarrassing GK mistakes yes, yes we can.

Do that, and it will have us in the play offs, we won't need a huge number of extra goals to push to auto promotion. Maybe 10 more. We created plenty last seeason but didn't put them away. Giles and Jones should terrorise this year, those two competent CFs even getting just 12 goals each will probably be enough.
 
r00fie1 said:
But surely Ash88 - all we need is a "magic wand" and all the forwards will come flocking to the Riverside?:unsure:
Its obvious Wilder has never managed a successful team or got any of them promoted - [from the third division to the Prem, for example].:ROFLMAO:
Otherwise he would have bought in who he wanted, apologised 100 times for Balogan and Connolly [not James...], Burnley, Lumley`s howler against Hull, the lack of pies at Man Utd, the weather, the price of eggs and the dreadful wait for the new Boro home shirt.
Boo!
Sack him now.
:love:
Click to expand...
The lack of beer at Man Utd was an absolute killer. 10 whole hours I had to go un-beveraged! He's lucky I renewed my ST after that.
 
Soutra said:
The Fulham manager summed it all up last season perfectly. The objective was 25 wins, and they did it (27 actually), and to set out to score as many goals as possible. They did that too.
Click to expand...
Pretty easy statement to make AFTER you've finished the season with a record breaking striker.

I guarantee he didn't make any statements like that before the season started.
 
Ash88 said:
Pretty easy statement to make AFTER you've finished the season with a record breaking striker.

I guarantee he didn't make any statements like that before the season started.
Click to expand...
Yes, probably true. But I did hear that Radio 5 interview just before Easter so the season wasn't over at that time.

The objective came from consulting with some Billy Budd type statistician who had worked out the goals/promotion correlation.

Boro's defence might be a bit better this season but it really wasn't the issue last season. 50 goals was better than one of the teams in the playoffs and similar to others. Without that meltdown at Preston it would have been very similar. My view is if it ain't bust it don't need fixing, but I think I am the only one on here who thinks that.

My concern is that Boro spend too much time and effort on the defence and end up missing out because of a lack of goals scored.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top