Did the January trade figures get a mention on here?

Lefty

Lefty

Well-known member
I'm sure someone will have put them up, but just in case.

Let's hope this is just January because they are jaw dropping.

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Strange story today of an organic sausage company that has just stopped using British pork because of the difficulties of exporting meat. Looks like 87% of the industry are doing the same. Now using Danish pork but some of her buyers only take British meat.
 
Wow. I'm glad I don't own a salmon farm. 98% reduction? That's worse then decimating an industry.

Still, "sovereignty "
 
It's a mess. Stupid decision, ineptly enacted.

'Project Fear', even as categorized by Brexit campaigners (not what was actually forecast) massively understated things at the moment.

The warnings of large queues and disruption at the ports did not materialise, but mainly because the hauliers decided they didn't want to be stuck in long delays so avoided the UK altogether.

Add to that businesses not being ready either and all the extra costs.

It has to improve, I guess, but wow.
 
Adi_Dem said:
Was going to post this but thought better of it. There are none so blind as those who will not see.
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It's a fine line between banging the same old drum to death and bringing important information to peoples attention, for discussion.

My own view is the most important thing is to try and learn from the errors in reasoning and for many they will only do that once the outcome shows it was a clear error. That will take time of course and peoples biases will push some to deny it for a long long time, but some will be open to it sooner.
 
Like for like figures for Jan 21 compared to Jan 20 might be a bit misleading, due to the various 'no deal' deadlines.

Possibly December 2020 figures were high due to everyone getting exports out before the end of Transition Period, making Jan 2021 lower than they otherwise would have been, which will normalise given a bit more time.

Conversely, Jan 2020 figures may have been high for the same reason as Dec 2020 figures, as everyone getting exports done before the then no deal deadline at end of Jan 2020.

It would be interesting to see the Feb 2021 figures compared to the year before. If still so far down then more blame can be given to Brexit rather than temporary shifting deadlines.
 
Way_Out_West said:
Like for like figures for Jan 21 compared to Jan 20 might be a bit misleading, due to the various 'no deal' deadlines.

Possibly December 2020 figures were high due to everyone getting exports out before the end of Transition Period, making Jan 2021 lower than they otherwise would have been, which will normalise given a bit more time.

Conversely, Jan 2020 figures may have been high for the same reason as Dec 2020 figures, as everyone getting exports done before the then no deal deadline at end of Jan 2020.

It would be interesting to see the Feb 2021 figures compared to the year before. If still so far down then more blame can be given to Brexit rather than temporary shifting deadlines.
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True.

Shocking figures though. Covid is only a minor factor, that is for sure, as shown by the non EU trade figures.

It's like having a having a huge containership jacknife Dover for a whole month, those figures.
 
Way_Out_West said:
Like for like figures for Jan 21 compared to Jan 20 might be a bit misleading, due to the various 'no deal' deadlines.

Possibly December 2020 figures were high due to everyone getting exports out before the end of Transition Period, making Jan 2021 lower than they otherwise would have been, which will normalise given a bit more time.

Conversely, Jan 2020 figures may have been high for the same reason as Dec 2020 figures, as everyone getting exports done before the then no deal deadline at end of Jan 2020.

It would be interesting to see the Feb 2021 figures compared to the year before. If still so far down then more blame can be given to Brexit rather than temporary shifting deadlines.
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There are potential reasons for such poor results that hopefully will not look so bad in February. We need to wait and see where it pans out, but some industries will not survive.
 
We definitely need to wait for longer to get an undistorted view of our post brexit trade situation.

PS I'm not saying it'll look better especially as our service industry exports are very subdued by Covid.
 
There will absolutely be casualties. Let's hope not too many. You do wonder if we could end up in a no deal scenario given the EU have not ratified the coop operation agreement yet and nor will they do long as Johnson is threatening to breach the withdrawal agreement.

As a nation at the minute we don't look very trustworthy.
 
Laughing said:
There will absolutely be casualties. Let's hope not too many. You do wonder if we could end up in a no deal scenario given the EU have not ratified the coop operation agreement yet and nor will they do long as Johnson is threatening to breach the withdrawal agreement.

As a nation at the minute we don't look very trustworthy.
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Rafael Behr made some excellent points, as usual, in his guardian piece today.

Sour spot

'Europeans have learned to disregard what Johnson says and focus on what he does. If he were serious about a cooperative spirit he would not, for example, be refusing to apply the full terms of the withdrawal agreement in Northern Ireland. Reliable partners do not sign treaties with their fingers crossed. If the British prime minister valued respectful dialogue, he would not have refused full diplomatic status to the EU’s ambassador.'
 
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