Dairy and meat exports down 96% due to Brexit

[Corcaigh_the_Cat]

No he's saying the numbers of 97% with regards to salmon exports are wrong. It's all there in the link.
Nobody is denying there are currently problems with the brexit transition, but some of you are going in like it's permanent and the it's the end times.

I don't think that's the case but there's a lot of adjusting to be done with regards to the economy and you boys in the hospitality game will bear the brunt of it if the unemployment figures coupled with higher produce costs occur.

 

[SmallTown]

No he's saying the numbers of 97% with regards to salmon exports are wrong. It's all there in the link.
Nobody is denying there are currently problems with the brexit transition, but some of you are going in like it's permanent and the it's the end times.

Like the original post. It'll take decades for this country to recover (recover, no IMPROVE, not have something better than we did when we were EU members but simply recover from the damage it has caused). Thats assuming we will recover. It's not guarenteed. We are a small, isolated, insular little island. Far from the huge economise of Asia and self exiled from the huge economies on our doorstep. With a corrupt government freely stealing the nations money for friends and vanity projects and with a bafflingly large amount of the population SUPPORTING this economic and democratic dismantling of the country. I honestly don't think we will survive. The way I see it were a becoming a pointless backwater and many people still WANT this.

 

[Redwurzel]

It’s been a perfect storm with Brexit and Covid, and I don’t think we can deny the latter has obviously played a part, we won’t won’t know the true picture until things across Europe are fully open again.

However saying that, for a number of farmers, the revenue they received from EU subsidies was the difference between profit and loss and I can’t understand those in that situation, voting for Brexit.

I would be surprised if 52% or more of UK farmers voted for Brexit - EU farming subsidies are still big business. The biggest Brexit areas tended to be the left behind former mining and manufacturing areas such as Sunderland, Stoke, Teesside, Mansfield and in those areas the retired folk were the biggest voters for Brexit.

Large non tariff barriers have appeared since December with fresh food for UK exports to the EU such as vet licences for imports. that were not there before for exactly the same sourced food. I would guess this has alot to do with the decline in UK exports to the EU.

 

[Norman_Conquest]

I would happily. But if you think it's responsible for a 96% drop in sales then you're wildly off track. During the pandemic, people are still eating you know? But post brexit the EU is NOT buying out produce. It's clearly an issue with Brexit. Covid has exaccarbated these problems but bresit is the cause

At no point have I said that pandemic is fully responsible for the drop in dairy export sales but did mention that they have been exacerbated by it. You have now agreed this point but in your original reply you said 'no' to this.

Regarding people still eating, I have addressed this further above in this thread but are happy to clarify it again.

Schools, colleges, universities, cafes, restaurants, etc. have all closed during the lockdowns. These closures have impacted on the supply chain due to no one wanting their product. Our school have more children going into school dinners on a Monday and a Friday than every other day of the week. These two days are usually the first and last decent meal they will get all weekend and everyone can afford to buy meat for the household - We all know who is to blame for that.

You also need to ask why have more people been accessing food banks during the pandemic? Not everyone's job was covered by the furlough scheme and I don't profess to know what is happening in the EU regarding job protection. At Christmas, through the hard work of Mike Hind, I was able to hand out over 200 hampers to families at our school and we are seen to be in an affluent area. People have had to cut their cloth accordingly to make ends meet.

 

[SmallTown]

I don't think that's the case but there's a lot of adjusting to be done with regards to the economy and you boys in the hospitality game will bear the brunt of it if the unemployment figures coupled with higher produce costs occur.

By which point it'll be too late. That's the sad thing about the Randy's of the world. They'll try and defend this thing, not realising it's going to end up damaging their own livelihood. That's the sad thing.

 

[Andy_W]

Makes sense. EU Bovine production down because of lower consuption, so import no UK beef as their beef is off to the rest of the world (not).

Do people eat less in a pandemic? Or do they just eat less meat? If meat goes down then other things should go up and replace them? If meat goes down in restaurants, then it surely goes up at home?

Of course, it could just be that meat is down 20%, so they cut the 20% that is most costly/ problematic (which is now mostly the UK portion).

If the 96% drop was just because the market was down, then the UK farmers should have known their own market, and should have known that had there been any problems, the UK market was like to be hardest hit. Nobody really thought that production would stay the same, go up, or we would get paid more for it, did they? In any circumstance?

 

[SmallTown]

At no point have I said that pandemic is fully responsible for the drop in dairy export sales but did mention that they have been exacerbated by it. You have now agreed this point but in your original reply you said 'no' to this.

Regarding people still eating, I have addressed this further above in this thread but are happy to clarify it again.

Schools, colleges, universities, cafes, restaurants, etc. have all closed during the lockdowns. These closures have impacted on the supply chain due to no one wanting their product. Our school have more children going into school dinners on a Monday and a Friday than every other day of the week. These two days are usually the first and last decent meal they will get all weekend and everyone can afford to buy meat for the household - We all know who is to blame for that.

You also need to ask why have more people been accessing food banks during the pandemic? Not everyone's job was covered by the furlough scheme and I don't profess to know what is happening in the EU regarding job protection. At Christmas, through the hard work of Mike Hind, I was able to hand out over 200 hampers to families at our school and we are seen to be in an affluent area. People have had to cut their cloth accordingly to make ends meet.

I think you might be getting 2 things confused. This is about exports to the EU which have practically stopped. That's a direct result of brexit.
Interestingly your points suggest that this country is eating less produce somehow. If that's the case than thays again entirely separate from EU exports and just another hit to the farmers on top of not being able to sell to neighbouring countries.

 

[bear66]

Do people eat less in a pandemic? Or do they just eat less meat? If meat goes down then other things should go up and replace them? If meat goes down in restaurants, then it surely goes up at home?

Of course, it could just be that meat is down 20%, so they cut the 20% that is most costly/ problematic (which is now mostly the UK portion).

If the 96% drop was just because the market was down, then the UK farmers should have known their own market, and should have known that had there been any problems, the UK market was like to be hardest hit. Nobody really thought that production would stay the same, go up, or we would get paid more for it, did they? In any circumstance?

Financial considerations are possibly part of the reason, with most beef cuts high value products.

 

[Norman_Conquest]

I think you might be getting 2 things confused. This is about exports to the EU which have practically stopped. That's a direct result of brexit.
Interestingly your points suggest that this country is eating less produce somehow. If that's the case than thays again entirely separate from EU exports and just another hit to the farmers on top of not being able to sell to neighbouring countries.

I am only using this country as an example on how things have changed.

The French couple I know have also cut their cloths accordingly. Julia was finished from the supermarket she works in and her husband Mattieu had his hours cut at work. Curfews have been in place with restaurants and cafes having to close.

France also had lockdowns in their schools, etc.

 

[Corcaigh_the_Cat]

Do people eat less in a pandemic? Or do they just eat less meat? If meat goes down then other things should go up and replace them? If meat goes down in restaurants, then it surely goes up at home?

Of course, it could just be that meat is down 20%, so they cut the 20% that is most costly/ problematic (which is now mostly the UK portion).

If the 96% drop was just because the market was down, then the UK farmers should have known their own market, and should have known that had there been any problems, the UK market was like to be hardest hit. Nobody really thought that production would stay the same, go up, or we would get paid more for it, did they? In any circumstance?

I agree, consumption will be barely touched as a result of Covid. The location of the consumption will have changed but actual percentage drop will be negligible.

According to official figures (the government have modified the way these are counted) unemployment has fallen since the autumn, though there was an initial rise last spring/summer.

 

[Andy_W]

I would be surprised if 52% or more of UK farmers voted for Brexit

I wouldn't be, from memory, I must have seen a hundred "leave" banners on farms and large areas of private land, and don't remember any remain ones? That's all over the UK too, I would have thought there would have been remain ones all over the north east, I don't remember any.

Also, most farmers seemingly are either loaded, or have a mass of assets and we know those types vote tory, and most tories voted leave. We also know that most farmers/ farm holders sit squarely in the "leave" age brackets, all of that points at voting out.

 

[Andy_W]

I'm assuming they all didn't get subsidies?
Of those that were getting subsidies, how many were actually aware that these subsidies were actually from the EU? Did they just get it paid in their bank as "EU Farming subsidy"? I've no idea to be honest, but I would imagine it's unlikely?
How many thought the government (taxpayer) would pick up the tab for that subsidy? If so, why did they think that?
Did they even know/ care where their produce was going?
Do they not just shift produce to buyers/ middle men/ the market, and then it goes from there?

 

[Norman_Conquest]

I agree, consumption will be barely touched as a result of Covid. The location of the consumption will have changed but actual percentage drop will be negligible.

According to official figures (the government have modified the way these are counted) unemployment has fallen since the autumn, though there was an initial rise last spring/summer.

I disagree with that. Yes people who can afford to eat out will still be eating well at home but for many other they will have had to change how they plan for meals.

 

[SmallTown]

I am only using this country as an example on how things have changed.

The French couple I know have also cut their cloths accordingly. Julia was finished from the supermarket she works in and her husband Mattieu had his hours cut at work. Curfews have been in place with restaurants and cafes having to close.

France also had lockdowns in their schools, etc.

You are but you are arguing one thing to disprove another. Which doesn't make sense

 

[Corcaigh_the_Cat]

I am only using this country as an example on how things have changed.

The French couple I know have also cut their cloths accordingly. Julia was finished from the supermarket she works in and her husband Mattieu had his hours cut at work. Curfews have been in place with restaurants and cafes having to close.

France also had lockdowns in their schools, etc.

Do you not find that people are also changing their habits due to a general wake up call?

We haven't been affected by the pandemic financially, we're actually better off (or were until I stopped working). We've looked at cutting consumption to combat climate change, meat eating is right down, despite our better financial situation, and there are many in the same boat, with transport costs being slashed as commuting has stopped.

 

[Randy]

By which point it'll be too late. That's the sad thing about the Randy's of the world. They'll try and defend this thing, not realising it's going to end up damaging their own livelihood. That's the sad thing.

**** me the Randy's of the world? I'm not defending anything. Damaging my own livelihood? Yeah there are only two things to blame for that, Tories and lockdowns. None of which I voted for unlike some.

Our business is picking back up considering we are operating with one hand tied behind our backs. Once we open fully on the 17th of next month we'll be back to business as usual, we've been having to turn people away as we only have enough room for 35 people outside. People want to and will go out and have a good time, that isn't going to change because of brexit as much as it will annoy some people.

 

[Corcaigh_the_Cat]

I disagree with that. Yes people who can afford to eat out will still be eating well at home but for many other they will have had to change how they plan for meals.

In significant enough numbers to make the difference?

I've talked to people on furlough in the south, they're better off due to not travelling and no child minding costs. Not everybody on furlough is feeling the pinch.

 

[Redwurzel]

Adam Smith's invisible hand of the market will come into play if the EU is no longer a destination for UK fresh food.

UK prices will drop and UK buyers will buy more British and increased demand in general, new export markets will apear to some extent for cheaper UK exports. We import nearly half our food as we found out with the Tesco horse meat scandal, Tesco were importing meat from what they thought was Irish beef was in fact Polish horse.

Alternative uses of land will appear too - forestry, housing, recreational - meat to veg/cereal crops.

Geography is not a massive barrier for food nowadays - most of our flowers come from East Africa often via Dutch importers, one of the biggest brands of butter in the UK is Anchor (from New Zealand), Fray Bentos is South American meat, New Zealand lamb, South African tinned fish, most of our grapes come from South Africa.

I do think some fo the early non tariff barriers will change. There are some punishment games going on at present.

 

[Norman_Conquest]

Do you not find that people are also changing their habits due to a general wake up call?

We haven't been affected by the pandemic financially, we're actually better off (or were until I stopped working). We've looked at cutting consumption to combat climate change, meat eating is right down, despite our better financial situation, and there are many in the same boat, with transport costs being slashed as commuting has stopped.

I agree with that totally and is why I said we need to look at the bigger picture in my first post.

Not everyone is as lucky as you and I financially and are making these choices out of necessity.

 

[Corcaigh_the_Cat]

Adam Smith FFS!!!

I agree that the economy will need to make big adjustments though.