the_dormouse
Well-known member
Daniel Farke must have an amazing record in the championship.
Leicester and Leeds for me with Southampton through the play offs. The better squads count at the business end. Ipswich have had a good season though, they are this years Luton.
Its not unlucky its incompetence or mismanagementSay what you like about Gibson, but he's an unlucky sod.
The effort and money he's put into the club and yet season after season clubs with owners who don't make anything like the same effort suddenly "click" and go on these incredible runs.
Even when we have gone up it's felt like hard work and we've had to have a number of players probably a bit too good for the division to allow us to stagger over the line.
Some of it of course is of his own doing. His decision making is far from perfect. But still, you'd think he'd have got it right, even by accident, a couple of times by now and we'd have cantered to the title at least once.
Meanwhile (for example) every time "worst owner in the history of the game" Mike Ashley had Newcastle relegated, they bounced straight back as if it was barely an inconvenience
He must be looking at Ipswich with their CM pairing of boro cast offs and just be thinking oh FFS.
I don't disagree (as per my post), but is he really any worse than many other chairman who've fluked their way up?Its not unlucky its incompetence or mismanagement
No such thing as luck over 46 matches. You get what you deserveAlthough they have been brilliant this season - they have been extremely lucky too.
Their underlying's and stats, especially in the first half of the season showed they were massively overperforming their league position. They were winning a lot of games by the odd goal when the stats showed they shouldn't have.
They have kept it going, and recruited well in January, but their numbers (not goals - but xG etc) are way behind Leicester and Leeds. This would suggest they will fall away. Whether they will or won't, we'll soon find out.
The first attempt is the most important time to bounce back - with PL quality players and parachute payments.Say what you like about Gibson, but he's an unlucky sod.
The effort and money he's put into the club and yet season after season clubs with owners who don't make anything like the same effort suddenly "click" and go on these incredible runs.
Even when we have gone up it's felt like hard work and we've had to have a number of players probably a bit too good for the division to allow us to stagger over the line.
Some of it of course is of his own doing. His decision making is far from perfect. But still, you'd think he'd have got it right, even by accident, a couple of times by now and we'd have cantered to the title at least once.
Meanwhile (for example) every time "worst owner in the history of the game" Mike Ashley had Newcastle relegated, they bounced straight back as if it was barely an inconvenience
He must be looking at Ipswich with their CM pairing of boro cast offs and just be thinking oh FFS.
Yeah, like Ashley, Gibson threw money at it in an attempt to get us straight back up.The first attempt is the most important time to bounce back - with PL quality players and parachute payments.
Both seasons 2009-10 and 2016-17 we made a complete balls up of it in the managerial and recruitment department. Ashley and Newcastle didn't.
Not necessarily. Yes the longer the run, more matches played, then the less volatile and the more of a trend there is in over/under performance. But 46 games (1 season) can still be relatively small amount of data.No such thing as luck over 46 matches. You get what you deserve
But this isn't consistent with his career stats. So it suggests last season was the outlier. This season for example he's registered NPxG of 5.9 and has 6 goals - on par with his NPxG.Akpom outscored his xG by 6 goals
Another example of last season being an outlier. Archer this season has registered NPxG of 3.9 and has 4 goals. The season before he joined us (Preston loan) he amassed NPxG of 7.2 and scored 7 goals.Archer outscored his xG by 5 goals
Forss at Brentford recorded a total NPxG of 8.6 and scored 8 goals (54 games - 1,444 minutes)Forss outscored his xG by 3 goals
Ramsey again is back to his original performance. Before us he scored 3 goals from 3.2 NPxG with Norwich and since he's scored 0 goals from 0.3 NPxG with Burnley. The data size for Ramsey is too small to suggest anything, as yet.Ramsey outscored his xG by 2 goals.
And yes, they are....but it's whether they can continue to overperform. There is no hard evidence to suggest all 4 will continue at this rate, based on their career data.Chaplin, Broadhead, Hutchinson and Moore are all convincingly outscoring their xG for Ipswich hence why they are performing well.
There's numerous factors why Archer, Ramsey and Akpom performed at their best last season that aren't just luck.Not necessarily. Yes the longer the run, more matches played, then the less volatile and the more of a trend there is in over/under performance. But 46 games (1 season) can still be relatively small amount of data.
Take Leicester winning the league for example. They massively overperformed for 38 league games.....that's not to say it's not possible for Ipswich to continue doing what they're doing, but they will need to continue getting 'lucky'.
But this isn't consistent with his career stats. So it suggests last season was the outlier. This season for example he's registered NPxG of 5.9 and has 6 goals - on par with his NPxG.
Another example of last season being an outlier. Archer this season has registered NPxG of 3.9 and has 4 goals. The season before he joined us (Preston loan) he amassed NPxG of 7.2 and scored 7 goals.
Forss at Brentford recorded a total NPxG of 8.6 and scored 8 goals (54 games - 1,444 minutes)
So far for us, he's recorded a total NPxG of 8.7 and has scored 14 (non pen) goals (59 games - 3,082 minutes). So at the moment, Forss is overperforming his NPxG consistently, with us.
Ramsey again is back to his original performance. Before us he scored 3 goals from 3.2 NPxG with Norwich and since he's scored 0 goals from 0.3 NPxG with Burnley. The data size for Ramsey is too small to suggest anything, as yet.
So last season for us, it's showing we were very lucky to have Archer, Akpom and Ramsey all performing much better than their overall data would suggest.
And yes, they are....but it's whether they can continue to overperform. There is no hard evidence to suggest all 4 will continue at this rate, based on their career data.
In fact, before Moore's loan spell to Ipswich, he was under performing his NPxG throughout his career.
They've been lucky anyway mate. They've outscored the xG by 8 goals. So have Southampton and Leicester. None of them deserve to go upLooking at teams around the play offs, I'd be a bit disappointed if I was a Hull City fan, 4 points from there last 4 games, I reckon they will miss out on the play offs.
No, it would suggest this season is the outlier and he's been unlucky as his career prior to this season has been similar...Haaland has gone from outscoring his xG by 6 goals last season to being 1 goal behind his xG this season. Guess he was just lucky last season as well?
I meant they play a bit like Luton, all action with players moving all the time.They're doing far better than Luton.
They've already beaten Luton's points tally and massively outscored them and there are still 8 games to go.
Ipswich are having an incredible season for a newly promoted side.
Whatever happens, we're going to see a record points tally to not get automatic promotion.
We got 2nd place with 89 points in 2016.
Leicester are on track to get 100 points.
Leeds are on track to get 99 points.
Ipswich are on track to get 98 points.
Southampton are on track to get 93 points.