There has only been the odd locally transmitted case over the last 8 days so things seem to be control. The only question mark is the Premier yesterday warned local officials not to under report . . . . or else.
Quote about Iceland from an article I read today suggests the mortality rate may be less than believed...
"Early evidence from Iceland, a country with a very strong organisation for wide testing within the population, suggests that as many as 50 per cent of infections are almost completely asymptomatic. Most of the rest are relatively minor. In fact, Iceland’s figures, 648 cases and two attributed deaths, give a death rate of 0.3 per cent. As population testing becomes more widespread elsewhere in the world, we will find a greater and greater proportion of cases where infections have already occurred and caused only mild effects. In fact, as time goes on, this will become generally truer too, because most infections tend to decrease in virulence as an epidemic progresses. "
I should have provided more info on Iceland. Their data is relevant because they've tested more people per million of population than any country on the planet. (Their population is only around 300,000!).
Link is to an article from a highly respected epidemiologist. Should be free at the moment.
In Iceland the government tests about 100 people per day with symptoms and an external organisation measures about 1000 people a day with no symptoms. They are not finding asymptomatic infections. It is good news that it isn't spreading quickly, but there is very little infection there at the moment.
“ Early results from deCode Genetics indicate that a low proportion of the general population has contracted the virus and that about half of those who tested positive are non-symptomatic,” said [Iceland’s chief epidemiologist Thorolfur] Guðnason.”
I actually like reading this thread because it builds my morale up ever so slightly and thats a good thing. You might be realistic Red but there are umpteen threads to mention the worrying stuff. This is like a comfort blanket of hope this thread. For me anyway.
I see what you mean now Bear, but I’m not so sure that’s the case. The articles are a bit vague on detail, to be fair, but the tone of some seem to suggest it’s not merely a case of people showing no symptoms because they aren’t yet developed. Anyway, the longer the days tick by, the more is known and the data and true picture can start to build.
‘The whole population of the village was tested, and 3% of the residents tested positive. Then, after a two-week lockdown, the population was tested again. The transmission had been reduced by 90% and the results were confirmed: the majority of cases seem to be asymptomatic.’