Corona virus data analysis. A fascinating read.

swordtrombonefish said:
The view that we must maintain social distancing following lockdown is great in places where people are not packed like sardines on public transport - but when they are, what then? For me a post lockdown strategy has to answer a great many more questions.

Are we advocating masks per some USA states when you go into public places - is that for everyone or just the most vulnerable? Should business be mandated a WFH wherever possible policy for the foreseeable future until either a vaccine is available or the infection rates drop below a certain threshold? How is any of this policed/managed?

We must at some point return to some kind of new normality but a headlong rush looks a recipe for more of the same in a second wave.
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I think our behaviours will change for a long while, even if we come out of "lockdown" here. It is to be hoped though, that Giesecke is correct, and that around 50% of the population will have had it by the time that we're clambering aboard crowded tube trains again.
 
Alvez_48 said:
We've opened Pandora's box with lockdowns measures already dood they will happen more often and at no notice.

There is still 0 evidence that the lockdown has been in anyway effective.

Will be interesting to see the yellow vest movement when macron finally eases his lockdown.
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Lockdown has worked, exponential rises have stopped everywhere they have been implemented

could we achieved the same if we went the same way as Sweden, that’ll be the real indicator I suspect.
Another note, Netherlands has recently done a antibody search on blood donors, and 3% have antibodies.....

https://nltimes.nl/2020/04/16/3-dutch-blood-donors-covid-19-antibodies
 
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GazC_MFC said:
Lockdown has worked, exponential rises have stopped everywhere they have been implemented

could we achieved the same if we went the same way as Sweden, that’ll be the real indicator I suspect.
Another note, Netherlands has recently done a antibody search on blood donors, and 3% have antibodies.....

https://nltimes.nl/2020/04/16/3-dutch-blood-donors-covid-19-antibodies
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Or the virus has burned through everyone as more evidence suggests..
Again there is no evidence lockdown is effective.

Will check the link but for the anti body tests if true it goes against what has been seen in many places now.

Quick dig shows that

a) these were from samples taken a month ago.
b) the tests aren't reliable

It's a shame because I really would love to have a good anti body test out there.
 
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GazC_MFC said:
Lockdown has worked, exponential rises have stopped everywhere they have been implemented

could we achieved the same if we went the same way as Sweden, that’ll be the real indicator I suspect.
Another note, Netherlands has recently done a antibody search on blood donors, and 3% have antibodies.....

https://nltimes.nl/2020/04/16/3-dutch-blood-donors-covid-19-antibodies
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Social distancing works. Lockdown, not necessarily. Seriously, watch the Q&A with the former head of the European Centre for Disease Control. He gives straight answers to good, intelligent questions.
 
What’s not clear in the article is if 600ish had covid anti bodies or if it was 600 sampled.
If it’s the former that means 23,000 have been sampled, and that would be pretty scary
Lots of caveats, like the article says it may be aj’s for younger people to get immunity, but that means they could get affected again.
If 23,000 sample of 18-20 years olds, then we are a long way to go before we even see light at the end of the tunnel
 
GazC_MFC said:
What’s not clear in the article is if 600ish had covid anti bodies or if it was 600 sampled.
If it’s the former that means 23,000 have been sampled, and that would be pretty scary
Lots of caveats, like the article says it may be aj’s for younger people to get immunity, but that means they could get affected again.
If 23,000 sample of 18-20 years olds, then we are a long way to go before we even see light at the end of the tunnel
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Quick dig shows that

a) these were from samples taken a month ago.
b) the tests aren't reliable

It's a shame because I really would love to have a good anti body test out there.

Furthermore it's interesting how this very scary preliminary result is widely reported.. yet the Swedish former head of European disease control gets 0 airtime.
 
Alvez_48 said:
Quick dig shows that

a) these were from samples taken a month ago.
b) the tests aren't reliable

It's a shame because I really would love to have a good anti body test out there.

Furthermore it's interesting how this very scary preliminary result is widely reported.. yet the Swedish former head of European disease control gets 0 airtime.
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Headlines are easy. Sitting throuh half an hour of a very boring old bloke talking sense is not as easy to sell.
 
Whilst I'm not advocating a free for all (by which I mean taking no action), I do think we (humans) have a tendency to get a bit 'hung up' about death generally.
 
The expert puts the risk of death at 1 in 1000. Again, I'd recommend watching his Q&A, but he thinks that it will be the same as a bad flu year. We are scared because it is new ... and it kills people. Flu is older ... but it still kills people. He concedes that he may be wrong ... that it may be 0.2%, but most of us will get it without knowing. The same message as the data analyst gives in the OP, but with different numbers.

To be fair though, cuthbert, fear is natural.
 
Flu is a human virus, as cold viruses are. This is an animal virus that has jumped species. What concerns me most is that he complains about lack of evidence and peer review of the Imperial modeling (which looks spot on with one data point), but provides no evidence or rigorous debate for his hypotheses. Sweden is, by guidance rather than law, not doing a lot different to what we're doing. And about 8 days behind us are rapidly catching up our deaths per million population (they were half of Switzerland less than a week ago and now equal to them). We'll never know if he's right because no country is doing precisely what he believes would be the sensible way to let this run - protect the vulnerable and let everyone else loose.

Perhaps countries like Finland will be a similar type of country to do a more direct comparison in time to come, although there would need to be a comparison of what people actually did and not just what the law told them to do.
 
Are bird flu and swine flu human virus? Just asking I really don't know.. giving those poor animals a hard time aren't we.

Can I ask what data point you refer to? The 500,000?
 
bear66 said:
Flu is a human virus, as cold viruses are. This is an animal virus that has jumped species. What concerns me most is that he complains about lack of evidence and peer review of the Imperial modeling (which looks spot on with one data point), but provides no evidence or rigorous debate for his hypotheses. Sweden is, by guidance rather than law, not doing a lot different to what we're doing. And about 8 days behind us are rapidly catching up our deaths per million population (they were half of Switzerland less than a week ago and now equal to them). We'll never know if he's right because no country is doing precisely what he believes would be the sensible way to let this run - protect the vulnerable and let everyone else loose.

Perhaps countries like Finland will be a similar type of country to do a more direct comparison in time to come, although there would need to be a comparison of what people actually did and not just what the law told them to do.
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He's in a Q&A on the internet. As he says, several times, in a year, there will probably not be a huge difference in outcomes. And they are at about 150 deaths a day and have been for a week or so I think.
 
borolad259 said:
He's in a Q&A on the internet. As he says, several times, in a year, there will probably not be a huge difference in outcomes. And they are at about 150 deaths a day and have been for a week or so I think.
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Important few days for them to see if that levels off. There were a lot of reports before the rise in deaths (about 10 days ago) that Sweden might bring in strict legislation. They seem to have backed off though.
 
borolad259 - fear is natural, but not everyone is afraid. I have friends in their 80s who genuinely seem less concerned about Covid-19 (and the prospect of dying) than I am (much younger). They genuinely don't seem that bothered.

My own mother is nearly 80. She always said 75 would be enough. I assumed that when she got there she'd change her mind... but she didn't. She's genuinely not bothered when she dies. She's fit and healthy, but is happy that she's had a good long life.

I think I read that over 50% of those who've died with Covid-19 are over 80 (many with underlying health conditions). I wonder how many would have died within 12 months anyway? I wonder how many have had a quick Covid death, rather than a more nasty prolonged death with 'something else'.

I'm not really making a point here... but things aren't always clear cut - and likewise with the daily/total death figures I suppose.
 
Alvez_48 said:
Are bird flu and swine flu human virus? Just asking I really don't know.. giving those poor animals a hard time aren't we.

Can I ask what data point you refer to? The 500,000?
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20,000 if we brought in a range of measures straight away.

Humans can pass on viruses to animals. Dioheria, TB and the flu are well documented. There were also lions in New York with Covid-19.
 
bear66 said:
20,000 if we brought in a range of measures straight away.
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I suspect we're going to be well over that, sadly. But that would, most likely, be unavoidable.

Boring bloke's main point re. the Imperial College model was that it is the worst case scenario ... the "do nothing" figure that is driving government policy (ie. lockdown). Where a more measured approach would be less damaging. As I understand him anyway.
 
bear66 said:
They are. This is as much about Behavioural science as biology. I think the government are surprised that the UK have been as well behaved as we have. The police have been warning this evening about overzealous reporting of neighbours to settle vendettas!
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I have an Italian friend who also couldn't believe how well behaved Italians had been about it!
 
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