Corona virus data analysis. A fascinating read.

Well, the good news is that the virus has probably been spreading willy nilly for some time. Most people won't get sick. So you can concentrate on trying to protect the vulnerable. Although that will be difficult. The problem with lockdown is that asymptomatic carriers are being locked in with potentially vulnerable people (those with high blood pressure, diabetes, smokers etc).
 
borolad259 said:
Well, the good news is that the virus has probably been spreading willy nilly for some time. Most people won't get sick. So you can concentrate on trying to protect the vulnerable. Although that will be difficult. The problem with lockdown is that asymptomatic carriers are being locked in with potentially vulnerable people (those with high blood pressure, diabetes, smokers etc).
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That's the problem. There's about 15 million high risk / very high risk people in the country (over 70s and preexisting health conditions). If we don't know who's got it, they'd be difficult to protect. Also, if you are an asymptomatic carrier, do you need to be locked down (up?) till there's a vaccine?
 
bear66 said:
That's the problem. There's about 15 million high risk / very high risk people in the country (over 70s and preexisting health conditions). If we don't know who's got it, they'd be difficult to protect. Also, if you are an asymptomatic carrier, do you need to be locked down (up?) till there's a vaccine?
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As you can identify the vulnerable, but not the asymptomatic carrier, it only makes sense to isolate one of those groups (ie. the Swedish model). Although, they have found it very difficult to completely protect the old, they seem to be doing a pretty good job in general. Most of us are going to get the damned thing.

It may well be though that the disease becomes self limiting, as per something close to the data modelling in the OP.
 
borolad259 said:
As you can identify the vulnerable, but not the asymptomatic carrier, it only makes sense to isolate one of those groups (ie. the Swedish model). Although, they have found it very difficult to completely protect the old, they seem to be doing a pretty good job in general. Most of us are going to get the damned thing.

It may well be though that the disease becomes self limiting, as per something close to the data modelling in the OP.
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I hope you're right, but I can't see that 15 million will survive a 12+ month lock down, particularly with about only 15% of positive cases being asymptotic; a small proportion of the overall population.
 
I hope the guy keeps updating his model as more data comes in... Will be very interested to see if it continues to track accurately because fingers crossed he's right this thing will burn out and the decision will be taken out of governments hands regardless.
 
Redwurzel said:
Ref herd immunity - I have had not heard of people catching it twice, which suggests there is some immunity as surely some people have been re exposed by now. Although it is not certain at present.
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You haven't? There have been numerous reports of people testing positive a second time after recovering. Many of the earlier reports involved only one or two people but the latest report out of South Korea is a little more troubling, listing more than 160 people who were re-infected.
In South Korea, health officials are trying to solve a mystery: why 163 people who recovered from coronavirus have retested positive, according to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC).
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Recovered coronavirus patients are testing positive again
 
All of these debates come back down to effective testing.
Without testing you can't isolate the vulnerable and make sure those caring for them are safe to do so.
Without testing you can't get back to work in any number as you don't know how many may be infected.
Without testing you can't say if it is a one time infection, if herd immunity is even possible, if there is a danger of a second infection being more damaging because of the harm done by the first.
Without testing you can't track new outbreaks and attempt to do contact tracing.

Testing and any possible vaccine or treatment are on an unknown timeline and therefore a rush to release the lockdown should come with a very big and immediately acknowledged caveat that it will involve a death toll and potential re-introduction of a more Draconian lockdown.
 
We've opened Pandora's box with lockdowns measures already dood they will happen more often and at no notice.

There is still 0 evidence that the lockdown has been in anyway effective.

Will be interesting to see the yellow vest movement when macron finally eases his lockdown.
 
Alvez_48 said:
We've opened Pandora's box with lockdowns measures already dood they will happen more often and at no notice.

There is still 0 evidence that the lockdown has been in anyway effective.

Will be interesting to see the yellow vest movement when macron finally eases his lockdown.
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Zero evidence?SpainCoronavirusStats17April2020.jpg
 
RandySavage said:
I'm of the same mindset. I was laid up for a few days on January with the exact same symptoms of this coronavirus. My mum was actually bed bound for a full week. Work colleagues all suffered various different levels of the same symptoms basically over the full month of January.
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Until you are tested you don't know if it was covid19
 
buffaloboro said:
Until you are tested you don't know if it was covid19
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That's correct yes but it doesn't stop my belief that many many people have already had it and recovered or died from it in the months leading up to now since November 2019.
 
Alvez_48 said:
Literally read the ops article mate.. that spreadsheet isn't evidence that lockdown is effective.
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Please can you explain why you believe that?

Just to explain the background in case you do not understand it.

This is based on a 4 day moving average of figures. Then comparing the figure from one day to the next. In the form of a multiplication rate. See how the figures have come down since Spain implemented a lock down in mid March.
 
spanishman said:
There is whole thread about the approach Sweden has taken. There are many factors that mean the same approach would not have worked as well in various other countries. This is it. Read through it (goes round in circle).

https://fmttmboro.com/index.php?threads/corona-virus-data-analysis-a-fascinating-read.2637/
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I've read the entire thread thanks.

This is a new interview made with the professor yesterday in which he explains the Swedish approach & why he thinks we were wrong to lock down.

He also explains the difficulties of coming out of lockdown.
 
Alvez_48 said:
We've opened Pandora's box with lockdowns measures already dood they will happen more often and at no notice.

There is still 0 evidence that the lockdown has been in anyway effective.

Will be interesting to see the yellow vest movement when macron finally eases his lockdown.
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You know why there is zero evidence that the lockdown has or hasn't been effective Alvez?
It is because we haven't seen a country with exactly the same conditions as us not impose a lockdown.
As interesting and discussion worthy the Swedish approach is, it is not comparable to ours or any other countries for that matter.
A simple question for you. If we hadn't locked down/social distanced and still had the the same NHS capacity, with the same issues surrounding PPE that we've encountered and the same lack of testing, a vaccine and medication to manage the infection, what do you think the death toll would be?
I'll give you a clue, you can't answer that one way or the other, no one can.
I am with you on the impact on civil liberties, but we are where we are and I could not with a clear conscious take the risk of adopting the Swedish approach given the aforementioned issues I have pointed out about the supply of PPE etc.
 
spanishman said:
Please can you explain why you believe that?

Just to explain the background in case you do not understand it.

This is based on a 4 day moving average of figures. Then comparing the figure from one day to the next. In the form of a multiplication rate. See how the figures have come down since Spain implemented a lock down in mid March.
Click to expand...

I believe that because I've read many epidemiologist as well as data scientist articles on the matter including Boroboscos which specifically regards Britain's situation, in my view the virus has spread way more quickly so by the time we locked down the community transmission was already really high.
I may be wrong but more and more evidence is coming out that suggests this is correct.

Dood to your point I completely agree that the government has failed epically with PPE for our healthcare workers, it still doesn't change the fact that the evidence is becoming clearer that the lockdown hasn't done anything to change the spread. Like you say I may be wrong and I am 100% complying with government directives.
 
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