Corona virus data analysis. A fascinating read.

borolad259 said:
I suspect we're going to be well over that, sadly. But that would, most likely, be unavoidable.

Boring bloke's main point re. the Imperial College model was that it is the worst case scenario ... the "do nothing" figure that is driving government policy (ie. lockdown). Where a more measured approach would be less damaging. As I understand him anyway.
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We'll never know whether any country did nothing as fear takes over! It was the worst case he was disputing as he believed it assumed the wrong number of ventilators. Having briefly looked through the paper, I don't recall that being a major parameter. Will take another look.

PS
Just had a look. It assumed a peak surge capacity of 5000 ICU beds. In reality, Nightingale overflows would have increased that number of we had huge numbers of hospital admissions, but we still only have 10k ventilators. They then said if there were adequate treatment facilities for all patients, the figure would halve to 250,000.

In their conclusion, they say that suppression will work in the short term but no one knows how this will pan out longer term as nothing of this magnitude has been done before.
 
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bear66 said:
We'll never know whether any country did nothing as fear takes over! It was the worst case he was disputing as he believed it assumed the wrong number of ventilators. Having briefly looked through the paper, I don't recall that being a major parameter. Will take another look.

PS
Just had a look. It assumed a peak surge capacity of 5000 ICU beds. In reality, Nightingale overflows would have increased that number of we had huge numbers of hospital admissions, but we still only have 10k ventilators. They then said if there were adequate treatment facilities for all patients, the figure would halve to 250,000.

In their conclusion, they say that suppression will work in the short term but no one knows how this will pan out longer term as nothing of this magnitude has been done before.
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On a side note, it seems that ICU doctors are starting to shy away from using ventilators on Covid 19 patients. They are learning all the time how to best treat people with severe illness. Good news. If other treatments turn out to be effective (drugs etc) we could see the end death rate falling even further.
 
borolad259 said:
On a side note, it seems that ICU doctors are starting to shy away from using ventilators on Covid 19 patients. They are learning all the time how to best treat people with severe illness. Good news. If other treatments turn out to be effective (drugs etc) we could see the end death rate falling even further.
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Is the technique of lying people in their front?
 
From what I read yesterday, they're favouring Continuos Positive Airway Pressure where possible .... less invasive.
 
bear66 said:
Flu is a human virus, as cold viruses are.
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I'm not sure what you mean by that. Once a particular flu virus is infecting humans and there is human-to-human transmission, I guess you can then call it a "human virus" but many of the different types of flu are zoonoses that have crossed over from animals to humans.

Some examples are the avian influenza virus subtypes A(H5N1), A(H9N2), A(H5N6) and A(H7N2), and the swine influenza virus subtypes A(H1N1) and A(H3N2). I'm not sure if it's known exactly how many or what percentage of flu subtypes that infect humans, are of animal origin (I can't find any figures on that) but as mentioned, there are a bunch of them.
 
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Randy - deaths lag behind this timeline. Also, no account is taken in the diagram for the large number of people who died of the virus elsewhere. Without having the opportunity of having been taken to hospital for treatment. For example, in care homes and elsewhere.
 
Yep just sharing what I've seen elsewhere for others with more experience in this sort of thing to dissect.
 
Quick question, has anybody on here tested positive for covid-19 or know someone personally who has (that does not mean your mate's sister's boyfriend who cleans the infected person's windows).
 
RandySavage said:
Quick question, has anybody on here tested positive for covid-19 or know someone personally who has (that does not mean your mate's sister's boyfriend who cleans the infected person's windows).
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The mother of a friend of ours was taken in to hospital about two weeks ago because her carers weren't happy with here blood pressure & breathing (she's in her eighties & it has has happened before).
While in hospital she was tested for covid-19 & found positive.
She was sent back to her sheltered accommodation a few days later & is currently fine according to her daughter.
 
BoroBosco said:
The mother of a friend of ours was taken in to hospital about two weeks ago because her carers weren't happy with here blood pressure & breathing (she's in her eighties & it has has happened before).
While in hospital she was tested for covid-19 & found positive.
She was sent back to her sheltered accommodation a few days later & is currently fine according to her daughter.
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Good to hear.
 
The husband of one of my wife’s colleagues was hospitalised with it. He’s frontline NHS. He’s mid 30s but is a biiiiig fella. He’s pulled through and is home recovering now.
Also my friends brother, early 30s fit as a fiddle, was in hospital for 24 hrs on oxygen. He’d had covid 19 (confirmed) but hospitalisation was as a result of a bacterial infection secondary to the virus. His partner is a GP.
 
Good friend of mine has just lost her oldest and best pal to Covid 19 on Friday. He had been on a ventilator for 2 weeks in Nottingham.
 
Today:

France's Prime Minister Edouard Philippe said on Tuesday a easing of restrictions in the country is necessary to avoid an economic collapse.

"Our residents must learn to live with the virus and protect themselves," he says, according to Reuters.

The easing of the restrictions is expected from May 11, depending on future developments.

Philippe announces that all primary and secondary schools and preschools are scheduled to open on May 11 and that high schools and upper secondary schools should be opened gradually after May 18. There it should also be compulsory for students to wear mouth protectors.

Working from home will be necessary at least three more weeks, according to Philippe, and bars and restaurants will have to wait until the end of May before they can open. Mouthguards should also be used in workplaces and in shops.

He says the country has the capacity to conduct 700,000 tests a week when the restrictions are eased and that the state will pay for all. The ambition is to test everyone who has been in contact with an infected person.
 
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