Controversial Covid post

FabioPorkpie said:
That is actually very worrying 😔
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The thing is we're on that now, but that's based on infections form about the 10th of October (assuming 16 days to die), when we were on about 13k per day positives (7 day av). We're now on 22k for a 7 day average, and now test results are delayed too, which is more infected people spreading unknowlingly. In a couple of weeks we might be having days north of 500 deaths if we don't get a grip on it. That's only mid November too, this is bad, very bad.
 
Statto1 said:
The thing is we're on that now, but that's based on infections form about the 10th of October (assuming 16 days to die), when we were on about 13k per day positives (7 day av). We're now on 22k for a 7 day average, and now test results are delayed too, which is more infected people spreading unknowlingly. In a couple of weeks we might be having days north of 500 deaths if we don't get a grip on it. That's only mid November too, this is bad, very bad.
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Yeah, can’t argue with that.
 
RandySavage said:
Here's an interesting factoid for you all.

Number 14 on the list for this year.

View attachment 7950

Estimated that 700 million people around the world are at risk of death because of starvation. The money this government alone had spent on covid-19 measures and restrictions could end world hunger in a month. Imagine what could be done if ALL the countries around the world had pooled the covid-19 money together to fix more pressing issues around the globe.

Staggering.
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Yeah, this was on the TV a couple of days ago. With all the money we are throwing at Covid we could do wonders to reduce Climate Change. It just goes to show that magic money tree was always there, it was just hiding in Rishi Sunak's garden (only a few miles from me, I might go and give it a shake lol).
 
FabioPorkpie said:
Yeah, can’t argue with that.
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And with the greatest of respect (and I'm hoping I'm very wrong) this isn't a surprise. The Government measures have not worked for the past 3 months, they aren't stopping infections, they are just slowing them. And the bad news is they are slowing them so they peak right around December when most of the country won't mind a bending of the Covid rules for Christmas.
 
MolteniArcore said:
And with the greatest of respect (and I'm hoping I'm very wrong) this isn't a surprise. The Government measures have not worked for the past 3 months, they aren't stopping infections, they are just slowing them. And the bad news is they are slowing them so they peak right around December when most of the country won't mind a bending of the Covid rules for Christmas.
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I do actually think it is surprising, as it’s such a huge jump from yesterday. Hopefully it’s a one off jump with lots of backdating, rather than the new level. Very concerning.
National Lockdown here we come.
 
FabioPorkpie said:
I do actually think it is surprising, as it’s such a huge jump from yesterday. Hopefully it’s a one off jump with lots of backdating, rather than the new level. Very concerning.
National Lockdown here we come.
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The 7 day average at 200 is a 'better' mark of where we are. Last Tuesday there was a huge jump in bumpers as well.
 
MolteniArcore said:
And with the greatest of respect (and I'm hoping I'm very wrong) this isn't a surprise. The Government measures have not worked for the past 3 months, they aren't stopping infections, they are just slowing them. And the bad news is they are slowing them so they peak right around December when most of the country won't mind a bending of the Covid rules for Christmas.
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It's the government, but it's the public too. A lot of our people are our problem, we're very ignorant, and if given a choice some would $hit on each other, and keep $hitting until we all drowned in it.

In some areas the rules just don't seem to exist, I see it quite a lot visiting sites and there's loads car sharing, I know sports clubs car sharing to travel to games too. I went to the chippy last Friday for our lass, in the space of 5 minutes there was 6 different untidy looking lads going in there (didn't arrive together), with no mask on. It clearly also said 3 people in the shop maximum, yet they just walked in shouting their orders to make it 4 and then 5 in the shop. At that moment I knew we were screwed. I then went to the pizza shop to pick up my food and there was 8guys in there working behind the counter, one had their mask half on, the rest had nowt, or it around their neck, I just walked in, said "For Fcucks sake" and then walked straight out, some other guy following behind me did the same but three in there waiting for food looked at me like they couldn't understand my issue. Yet they were wearing masks, being served by 8 guys not in masks who handle food all day.

Yeah I can see it going out the window at Christmas, its going to take some self control that is. I reckon a lot would break the rules, so I think there will be some specific guidance. Like stock up on food before and isolate before/ after visiting parents or stick to bubbles etc.
 
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Statto1 said:
It's the government, but it's the public too. A lot of our people are our problem, we're very ignorant, and if given a choice some would $hit on each other, and keep $hitting until we all drowned in it.

In some areas the rules just don't seem to exist, I see it quite a lot visiting sites and there's loads car sharing, I know sports clubs car sharing to travel to games too. I went to the chippy last Friday for our lass, in the space of 5 minutes there was 6 different untidy looking lads going in there (didn't arrive together), with no mask on. It clearly also said 3 people in the shop maximum, yet they just walked in shouting their orders to make it 4 and then 5 in the shop. At that moment I knew we were screwed. I then went to the pizza shop to pick up my food and there was 8guys in there working behind the counter, one had their mask half on, the rest had nowt, or it around their neck, I just walked in, said "For Fcucks sake" and then walked straight out, some other guy following behind me did the same but three in there waiting for food looked at me as they couldn't understand my issue.

Yeah I can see it going out the window at Christmas, its going to take some self control that is. I reckon a lot would break the rules, so I think there will be some specific guidance. Like stock up on food before and isolate before/ after visiting parents or stick to bubbles etc.
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You'll be seeing family on Xmas day.
Those who say they aren't are lying.
Unless Santa is proven to be a superspreader.
 
bear66 said:
The 7 day average at 200 is a 'better' mark of where we are. Last Tuesday there was a huge jump in bumpers as well.
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Yep I follow the 7 day averages. I generally don’t pay too much attention to the day to day stuff but that is a big leap.
 
RandySavage said:
You'll be seeing family on Xmas day.
Those who say they aren't are lying.
Unless Santa is proven to be a superspreader.
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I might to be honest, but we'll see, for me it will depend on the numbers in December, what current guidance is in the UK, what more responsible governments suggest and other family things.

To be honest I can't remember whose turn it is, we either stay up here with my parents or go down south to my missus.

I can easily isolate before and after though (I pretty much do anyway), and I'm also extremely cautious and a believer, as you can probably tell. I don't have a bubble either. My mother works on a covid ward, and their entire household has had it already, and I've got no grandparents to come into contact with. I also work from home, and have for the last few years, also don't work with any colleagues so if anyone is extremely low risk, it's me. I don't like people making their own decisions like that, but a big part of my jobs is weighing up risks and analysing numbers. I'll give it up if the risk is too high, and I can miss it if need be, can just pretend I'm in the gulf again.
 
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FabioPorkpie said:
Yep I follow the 7 day averages. I generally don’t pay too much attention to the day to day stuff but that is a big leap.
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yes, and by 'date of death'. Patterns become much clearer. I have posted this on another thread but I think people may be interested. Data from Spain (admittedly a week old, can't find the very latest but my spanish isn't great)...

1603829654836.png

We will follow a similar pattern
 
T_A_D said:
yes, and by 'date of death'. Patterns become much clearer. I have posted this on another thread but I think people may be interested. Data from Spain (admittedly a week old, can't find the very latest but my spanish isn't great)...

View attachment 7963

We will follow a similar pattern
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Isn't that site like the UK one, where you can't really pay much attention to the last 7 days anyway? As on there it starts low then just goes up as more and more get added retrospectively?

As in today Spain announced 267 deaths, their highest since the beginning of May, yesterday was 93 (still weekend effect) and the day before that 231.

We can't really follow a similar pattern to Spain, as we're ahead of them and have a much, much sharper increase. We were also terrible at recovering compared to Spain too.
 
T_A_D said:
yes, and by 'date of death'. Patterns become much clearer. I have posted this on another thread but I think people may be interested. Data from Spain (admittedly a week old, can't find the very latest but my spanish isn't great)...

View attachment 7963

We will follow a similar pattern
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Spain also recently changed their testing protocol which saw a large drop in cases if I'm not mistaken @T_A_D ...

Given the amount we're testing hospital patients and care home guests it would be prudent for us to do the same.
 
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