Controversial Covid post

To add to the discussion on excess deaths - a claim Covid isn’t the big issue.
Don’t shoot the messenger - just looking for rays of hope


The difference between her analysis is his is the perfect example of how all of us can make numbers fit any argument. You'll note in Mr Giles 'good news' he fails to note that 'respiratory deaths are actually under for this time of year'..
 
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To add to the discussion on excess deaths - a claim Covid isn’t the big issue.
Don’t shoot the messenger - just looking for rays of hope


I do worry when one of the graphs she uses on her timeline shows only 201 covid related deaths in the entire pandemic in he UK. And from reading her feed it is obvious what her narrative is, it's anti-lockdown.

She says respiratory deaths are actually lower this year, but when you look at ICU admissions these are massively up for respiratory problems. That doesn't fit.

And she appears to be pushing the false positive narrative, a common theme with anti-lockdowners, when as we have seen on this thread, that theory is easily disproved with basic maths.

I'm not convinced that she is representing the Covid narrative accurately. She is also unemployed, might she be using this narrative to gain exposure (like her interview with JHB) to get some cash in and gain followers. I note that JHB seems to be giving her airtime, that bothers me a little too as she's got some odd views herself.

Overall, it doesn't convince me.
 
I do worry when one of the graphs she uses on her timeline shows only 201 covid related deaths in the entire pandemic in he UK. And from reading her feed it is obvious what her narrative is, it's anti-lockdown.

She says respiratory deaths are actually lower this year, but when you look at ICU admissions these are massively up for respiratory problems. That doesn't fit.

And she appears to be pushing the false positive narrative, a common theme with anti-lockdowners, when as we have seen on this thread, that theory is easily disproved with basic maths.

I'm not convinced that she is representing the Covid narrative accurately. She is also unemployed, might she be using this narrative to gain exposure (like her interview with JHB) to get some cash in and gain followers. I note that JHB seems to be giving her airtime, that bothers me a little too as she's got some odd views herself.

Overall, it doesn't convince me.

Her points are valid, she's an ex Physician as well so you can't really argue with her training / credentials, she is in fact a fellow of the Royal College of Physicians. ICU admissions don't = deaths, the deaths as Clare points out are occurring in diseases where it is likely people are not seeking urgent medical care.

In terms of gaining air time - possible but they all are doing this (Hancock, Vallance, Harries the list goes on) people value their careers.
 
Her points are valid, she's an ex Physician as well so you can't really argue with her training / credentials, she is in fact a fellow of the Royal College of Physicians. ICU admissions don't = deaths, the deaths as Clare points out are occurring in diseases where it is likely people are not seeking urgent medical care.

In terms of gaining air time - possible but they all are doing this (Hancock, Vallance, Harries the list goes on) people value their careers.

210 Covid deaths in the pandemic though? That one graph alone that she has tweeted without a source makes me want to doubt her straight away.

Just because someone has great credentials it doesn't mean that she is is representing the situation honestly and for the good of the UK. I'm not saying she is lying or misrepresenting but she's not helping the likes of me get on board. But maybe a sceptic isn't her target audience?
 
Arguments fall flat when people start refering to pro lockdowns and anti lockdowns.

Now all we need to figure out is which character molteni was on the old board or god forbid from COB👀
 
Like this:


Posts it with a claim that they are cleaning the labs once a week and this is why positives drop in this pattern. Only 5 or 6 tweets later she clarifies that this is a graph she has made herself using daily totals (no source or raw data provided) and there is NO EVIDENCE WHATSOEVER provided that this particular lab, or set of labs, in Scotland are routinely cleaned on a Sunday morning.

She may as well draw a wavy line on a sheet of paper, claim it represents something and fire it out to her 9,000 followers who all want to believe what she is saying.

This is not open, transparent, critical scientific analysis for the good of the people, it's her pushing her own narrative with dubious figures. And without doubting her credentials, just this one example where she appears less than credible.

Also you mention Hancock, Vallance, etc - yes, they are gaining air time, but that is as a consequence of their job. It's not comparable in my book. There would be hell on if Hancock didn't appear on TV.
 
Arguments fall flat when people start refering to pro lockdowns and anti lockdowns.

Now all we need to figure out is which character molteni was on the old board or god forbid from COB👀

KingOfTheTribes - and I do not use that account anymore as the username appeared on 2 lines under the profile picture and it did my head right in. This username only takes up one line.

I have been a member of this board since it was created and have been a member of the old FMTTM board for as long as I can remember.

I never frequented COB, it's a bit dirty on there...
 
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Like this:


Posts it with a claim that they are cleaning the labs once a week and this is why positives drop in this pattern. Only 5 or 6 tweets later she clarifies that this is a graph she has made herself using daily totals (no source or raw data provided) and there is NO EVIDENCE WHATSOEVER provided that this particular lab, or set of labs, in Scotland are routinely cleaned on a Sunday morning.

She may as well draw a wavy line on a sheet of paper, claim it represents something and fire it out to her 9,000 followers who all want to believe what she is saying.

This is not open, transparent, critical scientific analysis for the good of the people, it's her pushing her own narrative with dubious figures. And without doubting her credentials, just this one example where she appears less than credible.

Also you mention Hancock, Vallance, etc - yes, they are gaining air time, but that is as a consequence of their job. It's not comparable in my book. There would be hell on if Hancock didn't appear on TV.

Thoughts @Statto1 & @bear66 ??
 
To add to the discussion on excess deaths - a claim Covid isn’t the big issue.
Don’t shoot the messenger - just looking for rays of hope


Is she the world record holder for "clutching at straws"?

Jesus, talk about her trying to find things to fit the direction she wants.

Do you seriously think she thinks that the lack of treatment in lockdown is responsible for a rapid increase in cases and deaths? She's just trying to blag it to suit her aims, or she just doesn't have a clue about maths, graphs and stats.

But, what an absolute load of crap. If that was the case (our deaths increase now is some delayed lack of treatment bounce back) it would not rise so sharply in line with test positives, which then gets trailed by deaths. There would just be more deaths across the board, from June to October. Or where they all waiting to die until Covid came back?
Does not going to hospital for a heart attack in April, mean you suddenly die in October, at the same time as Covid? How convenient.

The weekly excess deaths in April was 12k, she's got 200 more strokes, 150 more attacks, 200 respiratory infections (maybe not covid, or it would likely say covid, if they could get a test). What about the other 11.5k. What if that 500 or some that were not part of the "excess" died from unknowingly having covid as were were not testing enough, anywhere near enough.

She mentions the deaths line crossing the ITU admission line (which it hasn't crossed), yeah this happens when the admissions get high and the ITU's get filled, more die than can get admitted. Also when ITU admissions slow there's still full ITU's, of a lot of people that will die in the 18 day average! The lines have to cross, it's impossible not to, FFS! The only way this could not happen is if every person that was admitted to ITU or currently in ITU survived, or if there was no delay in death from ITU admission to dying.

She posts a covid death graph, and leaves off the deaths over 54 :rolleyes: Her graph still proves covid is more deadly by age though (especially for over 54's), which probably wasn't her intention. Then posts peak data and tries to compare it with non peak data (smaller sample size) and wonders why the graph is all over the place, absolute amateur.

Positivity rates (if that graph is true, not seen the data, or what supports the data, but I think it would be true): Just my very quick theory, I've not looked this up, but possibly increase on Fridays and Saturdays as people probably (wrongly) wait until Friday/ Saturday to get tested after being at work during the week. Or maybe Saturday is just high priority in some areas? Busiest days tend to be Monday to Friday for a lot of workers, and a lot finish early on Fridays, or do their admin on Fridays. Nobody does much admin on Sundays, test number is low here, probably those showing less symptoms, as those with more symptoms would try and go in their first day off (Saturday), not second.

This is getting pathetic now, look what's happening in France and Belgium, and all over Europe.

Still not seen anyone explain what we do with these covid sufferers that can't breathe, if we don't treat them? Don't say Nightingales, as there's nobody to staff them, maybe Dr Clair can go there seeing as she's "between jobs".
Nobody credible can deny these cases exist, especially since seeing as every ITU and Covid ward worker keeps saying they exist and that cases are rocketing.

If Covid increases, people can't breathe, and people need air, this will take priority over anything. You can't treat everything else and ignore covid, it's not going to happen, ever, everything else is going to come second. Any medical professional should (and will) know this, it's basic first aid, tackle the highest risk first (breathing is quite important).
 

Covered that in the post above.

But my thoughts are: A doctor "between jobs" at a time when we're crying out for doctors is trying to suit her own gains, or she's miffed that she can't get any private work in her speciality as it's not as important as covid.

I hope she's a better doctor than she is data analyst, graph reader or mathematician. She might also be blind too, as to not seeing what is currently happening all over Europe. Maybe she's also deaf and can't pick up the phone and speak to someone she's inevitably met who works in ITU or a covid ward.
 
The difference between her analysis is his is the perfect example of how all of us can make numbers fit any argument. You'll note in Mr Giles 'good news' he fails to note that 'respiratory deaths are actually under for this time of year'..
I’d have to decline clare’s view unfortunately. Excess deaths have a direct correlation to increased hospital admission and increased icu units due to covid. The deaths have lagged like previously.

people will be dying of what she saying, but I wouldn’t say they were a cause of excess deaths
 
I'm not convinced that she is representing the Covid narrative accurately. She is also unemployed, might she be using this narrative to gain exposure (like her interview with JHB) to get some cash in and gain followers. I note that JHB seems to be giving her airtime, that bothers me a little too as she's got some odd views herself.

I’m not convinced anyone is representing the Covid narrative accurately
Are you?
 
I’m not convinced anyone is representing the Covid narrative accurately
Are you?

I am, the guys working in ITU and on the Covid wards. Not heard one single example of one of them saying it's all fake or being blown out or proportion etc.
 
I’m not convinced anyone is representing the Covid narrative accurately
Are you?

As @Statto1 said:

I am, the guys working in ITU and on the Covid wards. Not heard one single example of one of them saying it's all fake or being blown out or proportion etc.

Can't see any doctors and nurses coming out saying that we are worrying about nothing when Leeds General are seeing higher admissions that during the peak and they are cancelling non essential operations.

The strange thing about this is that even if these people being quoted on this thread are right, that Sweden have the right idea, we don't need to lock down, it doesn't stop what is happening here. And what is happening is what we were told would happen... Hospitals are becoming full.

Leeds General is filling up and they aren't even in any kind of substantive measures. Even if they pop them in Tier 3 in the next couple of days there is no proof that this would work. The only time Covid infection rates dropped was under a national lockdown. It shows again that the Government are moving too slowly.

If you don't agree with lockdowns or think that false positives are causing the hospital to fill up could someone please suggest how we deal with the infection rate in Leeds and stop that hospital becoming overwhelmed?
 
As @Statto1 said:



Can't see any doctors and nurses coming out saying that we are worrying about nothing when Leeds General are seeing higher admissions that during the peak and they are cancelling non essential operations.

The strange thing about this is that even if these people being quoted on this thread are right, that Sweden have the right idea, we don't need to lock down, it doesn't stop what is happening here. And what is happening is what we were told would happen... Hospitals are becoming full.

Leeds General is filling up and they aren't even in any kind of substantive measures. Even if they pop them in Tier 3 in the next couple of days there is no proof that this would work. The only time Covid infection rates dropped was under a national lockdown. It shows again that the Government are moving too slowly.

If you don't agree with lockdowns or think that false positives are causing the hospital to fill up could someone please suggest how we deal with the infection rate in Leeds and stop that hospital becoming overwhelmed?

I think what you and statto are saying is you believe the narrative that supports your own.
Fair enough
I’m not convinced by either.

Seems to me
If we are being overwhelmed and cases/deaths are going to be a real problem then we are in deep sh1t. So, despite lockdwons, masks, social distancing and hand washing no/little light at the end of the tunnel.
Assumption - some people aren’t following the rules.
More rules don’t mean more compliance. I suspect those breaking rules now (a small but significant minority) will continue to do so.
The other option - explain the rules and consequences and let people make there own decisions. Most of us being sensible now wold continue to be just that and the idiots may continue - no worse off.
Example - I’m in Lincoln about to go into tier 2 because of students. I understand that.
If I’m daft enough to go to a student bar then I deserve all I get. I don’t and won’t. Equally, they don‘t come anywhere near my pub. Our paths will never cross.
The other assumption regarding the rules - is they may be ineffective. I think we’ve exhausted that one.

The other consideration is we keep doing what we are doing until a vaccine is ‘rushed through’ in record time. Brings with it all sorts of other questions.
 
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The strange thing about this is that even if these people being quoted on this thread are right, that Sweden have the right idea, we don't need to lock down, it doesn't stop what is happening here. And what is happening is what we were told would happen... Hospitals are becoming full.

Exactly, why look at Sweden when our problems are here, with our government, our people, our place in the world etc. If looking in that direction, maybe look at one of the nations with a much better death rate, like any of their neighbours.

The Sweden thing baffles me though, I'm sick of hearing it and sick of talking about it. I know when someone's gone/ going down the rabbit hole, when they start hailing Sweden as a success, when they had one of the highest covid death rates or excess death rates in the world, for a developed nation that's not exactly skint.

Don't want to distract from the Swedish people though, not in the slightest, from personal experience they really are great and the system they adopted would be 3 x worse if they had our public, instead of the Swedes. The only success they had is in proving their personal responsibility under guidance, and we've proven we have very little of that despite being guided stronger.

I see they just had their most cases in a day too, ever, and they're locking parts down under "advice", but more of their people actually listen, must be nice having more people like that.
 
I think what you and statto are saying is you believe the narrative that supports your own.
Fair enough
I’m not convinced by either..

No, it's not what I believe, it's what I would say is fact. My narrative comes from from what is actually happening in our hospital, and grows out from there, not what I'm guessing isn't happening, or ignoring. Our hospital is one piece of the puzzle of hospitals, and nobody has said or proven any of the pieces are wrong. So the collective puzzle has to be fact. It's just basic sums of small parts.

Unless people are saying my mother working on the covid ward is lying to me? Maybe she didn't have covid, and has actually been able to taste for five months, maybe my brother and stepdad didn't get it either. Or my other nurse mates working on and around the covid ward and A&E are lying too. Is Dr Cree lying? This is the same all over the UK, probably worse in other places.

Most that goes against that is very basic BS, which is easy to bat away.

It's like playing tennis with idiots, with some of those making these claims. They serve you a ball (piece of BS), you hit it back (facts/ reasoning/ stats) and they just ignore your return/ winner down the line. They then serve up another ball, and you hit that back and they ignore that one too, then they get out another ball, it's crazy. Eventually they run out of balls and go start serving up BS somewhere else.

There is some other stuff which is interesting, mainly from on here to be honest, but to me just looks like relatively experienced people (although not in top jobs), trying to use their experience to blag the gullible to suit their own needs. The problem is though (for them), is their experience does not give them any great strength in statistics, and once you get through the smoke it's easy to deconstruct. It reminds me of brexit and Trump, it's a house of cards.


Seems to me
If we are being overwhelmed and cases/deaths are going to be a real problem then we are in deep sh1t. So, despite lockdwons, masks, social distancing and hand washing no/little light at the end of the tunnel.
Assumption - some people aren’t following the rules.
More rules don’t mean more compliance. I suspect those breaking rules now (a small but significant minority) will continue to do so.
The other option - explain the rules and consequences and let people make there own decisions. Most of us being sensible now wold continue to be just that and the idiots may continue - no worse off.
Example - I’m in Lincoln about to go into tier 2 because of students. I understand that.
If I’m daft enough to go to a student bar then I deserve all I get. I don’t and won’t. Equally, they don‘t come anywhere near my pub. Our paths will never cross.
The other assumption regarding the rules - is they may be ineffective. I think we’ve exhausted that one.

The other consideration is we keep do what we are doing until a vaccine is ‘rushed through’ in record time. Brings with it all sorts of other questions.

If compliance improves cases will reduce, if compliance doesn't improve then lockdowns will take over, and they will get harder and harder
Basically we have the keys, we just keep driving into walls, so eventually they just take the keys away
People not following the rules isn't an assumption, it's a fact. Have a drive around the chip shops and take away's on Friday tea time, what I saw last Friday was beyond ridiculous. Also, I've seen loads of people having visitors, having mates round, groups of people not social distancing, gangs of kids together etc, it all adds up and if it's happening here, you can bet it's happening everywhere in the UK.
Compliance with masks in supermarkets is good, but I only see about 1 in 3 use hand gel when walking in, not good, social distancing is also not good.
I think they should put out video's of the ITU's and covid wards and blank out the faces, or even maybe video and list the names of those in there (that consent) and where they're from. Maybe it would bring some reality to it, as some people will just not understand unless you can smack them in the face with it.
Ahhh, Lincoln, used to live there! Used to go to the Engine Shed too, I'd have been riddled by now if it was 12 years ago! You must be up the top end of town, up the hill the students never used to go up there.
 
As @Statto1 said:



Can't see any doctors and nurses coming out saying that we are worrying about nothing when Leeds General are seeing higher admissions that during the peak and they are cancelling non essential operations.

The strange thing about this is that even if these people being quoted on this thread are right, that Sweden have the right idea, we don't need to lock down, it doesn't stop what is happening here. And what is happening is what we were told would happen... Hospitals are becoming full.

Leeds General is filling up and they aren't even in any kind of substantive measures. Even if they pop them in Tier 3 in the next couple of days there is no proof that this would work. The only time Covid infection rates dropped was under a national lockdown. It shows again that the Government are moving too slowly.

If you don't agree with lockdowns or think that false positives are causing the hospital to fill up could someone please suggest how we deal with the infection rate in Leeds and stop that hospital becoming overwhelmed?
Why is a covid case more important than a cancer case? Or more important than a surgery to replace a knee joint or a hip joint?
Why does everything in hospitals stop because of covid?
 
Ahhh, Lincoln, used to live there! Used to go to the Engine Shed too, I'd have been riddled by now if it was 12 years ago! You must be up the top end of town, up the hill the students never used to go up there.

Was at the Engine Shed last year to see Suzzane Vega
Yeah, live ‘uphill’ - 20 yards across the road to my local ”Morning Star’
 
You're assuming there are experts on Covid19 to make their cases for you. There aren't, despite what's been broadcast.

Like others
Why is a covid case more important than a cancer case? Or more important than a surgery to replace a knee joint or a hip joint?
Why does everything in hospitals stop because of covid?

They aren't stopping, that's the thing, they're still happening. My third op since June is in a fortnight.

There's lots of rubbish being written about the effects on the rest of the NHS, a lot of which is untrue.
 
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