Can somebody give me a balanced view on Trump?

I dunno. We are arriving at the same point, just a few decades later. That's German efficiency for you.
Nah, the EU doesn't work like that, but it's right that Germany have a massive say in the EU as they're the biggest and strongest nation. We had a big say too as a big fish in a big pond, until we pulled out, now we're a medium fish in a puddle.

The Germany of now is very different compared to the Germany of WW2. I would have taken being ran by the Germans or even the EU of 2010-2024 rather than being ran by the Tories from 2010-2024, any day of the week.
 
It's the double standard hypocrisies isn't it? Trump gets a pass for his character and everything that comes with him as its all about pragmatic policy, but 'they found Harris uninspiring'.

A lot of Americans are going to get what they deserve in the coming decade, and another large number of Americans are also going to bear the consequences of their compatriots decisions.
It's not giving him a pass, it's denial of reality.

You can tell their argument is just based on his words (lies), rather than his actions (or inactions), that's the main problem with it. It doesn't matter what anyone says, it's what they actually do and don't do.

Most of the benefits I've seen being raised for Trump were "it was better in 2016-2020 than it was 2020-2024", but again it's denying reality, and denying the challenges faced in the differing timeframes. 16-20 was a doddle by comparison to 20-24, and 24-28 doesn't look like it's going to be much easier.

Denying reality isn't uncommon for the reds these days though, half of them are conspiracy nuts.

Sure, covid started in 2020, but Trump only had to deal with the reality of it for about 6 months as he (and the reds) denied it for the first 6 when not much was happening in the US. Even then though, as the vast majority avoided the health issues, there were not actually a great deal of problems caused by it at the time. All the main problems which hurt people and their wallets largely came later, when they had to pay for it/ covid, and the inflation which followed and then the Ukraine war/ energy crisis etc. Not much more Biden's lot could have done about the latter (they're still pretty right wing themselves), the problems were baked in, and a lot of that compounded by terrible handling from Trump and co, it was all largely unsolvable short term, it's long duration pay back thing.

They've chucked the clown in the deep end, when he's even less capable and he's more unhinged than he was in 16-20, and his backroom staff are a hell of a lot worse too.

They're in for a harsh lesson I think, and it will be the next guy coming in 2028 who needs to pick up the pieces, again.
 
From The Times today

Face it, liberals, this is what millions wanted

The left have run out of things to explain away Trump’s success and must accept the hard truth

Hugo Rifkind

Wednesday November 06 2024, 9.00pm, The Times


This time, it’s different. This time, there can be no excuses. No Russian disinformation to blame, no fake news scandal to hide behind, no murkily funded social media advertising that you can tell yourself made all the difference. No bogeyman of Cambridge Analytica, nor even a popular vote that went the other way, betrayed by the electoral college. Nor even a hand-wringing, horrified, “these fools don’t know what they’re getting!” By now, how could they not? America saw Donald Trump, heard him, and knew him. Just like you did. More so, even. And voted for him anyway. And really, that’s it. That’s all there is.

In 2016, you could tell yourself that some or all of these things were the real reason Trump won and Hillary Clinton didn’t. Was it ever true? Maybe. Partially. And all these things were still worth worrying about even if it wasn’t. Back then, Russia did, indeed, hack away — there were indictments, arrests, convictions. Social media was a whirlwind of lucrative, divisive falsehood, far beyond anything Elon Musk would enable in 2024.

What you cannot believe this time around, though, is that anything like this made all the difference. Much as it might be comforting if you could.

Trump’s critics are largely not wrong. Even if you’re on the right yourself, this you simply must concede. Whether or not he will govern like a fascist, he certainly campaigned like one. He is, indeed, a convicted felon, declared liable by a court for sexual abuse, and accused of rape in a court deposition by his late first wife. He did, indisputably, accuse immigrants of eating cats and dogs. He fomented an uprising at the Capitol by refusing to concede an election he had clearly lost. He has routinely demanded the jailing of his opponents. Sometimes, as last week when he said Liz Cheney should face down a bunch of rifles, he has joked about seeing them killed.

He fails to comprehend the difference between his country’s interests and his own. He’s transparently in awe of dictators, and he did say: “In many cases, our allies are worse than our so-called enemies.” He will imperil Nato. Less gravely, but perhaps no less frighteningly, he has promised a job to RFK Jnr, who once had a worm in his brain and doesn’t believe in vaccines. And he did, absolutely, spend a long part of a long speech talking about the size of a golfer’s penis. All of this, indisputably, is true.

What if, though, 72 million Americans simply didn’t care? What if, in making these things the focus of their fightback, the Democrats were actively setting up store in a part of the political shopping mall that the voters they needed weren’t particularly minded to even visit? Among Trump’s voters, no doubt, there will be a decent number of misogynistic, authoritarian Bitcoin fans who thrill to hear an orange old man ramble about sharks. But 72 million of them? I doubt it.

America’s anti-Trumpers — and those of us elsewhere — are not unique in their refusal to accept hard truths that stare them in the face. Trump’s biggest fans have been doing exactly that since 2020, with their insistence that Joe Biden stole his victory. (Although why, you wonder, do they imagine Kamala opted not to steal this one too? Just lazy?) For liberals today, though, the hardest truth of all is that America saw not nearly enough in Trump to put them off.

Liberal denial wears many cloaks. Today, Democrats are wracked with angst about what they got wrong. Perhaps the candidate shouldn’t have been a woman, perhaps she shouldn’t have been black. Perhaps, if she was going to be both of those things she shouldn’t have been so annoying. Perhaps she should have been less woke, or at least differently woke, or more aggressive, or perhaps less so.

Masquerading as humility, all this stuff is actually the exact opposite. This — politics through the liberal prism — recognises absolutely no autonomy behind the votes they didn’t win. Such liberals will never understand Trump’s success because they literally don’t see it. All they see is the ways in which they, themselves, have failed. Because it must, really, be about them. Because everything is. Because it can’t possibly just be about people thinking him to be a better bet for a bit less immigration, and a decent job, and perhaps slightly cheaper eggs.

From an international perspective, understanding the sheer retail mundanity of the Trump vote is even harder. “But Ukraine!” we think. “But Nato! But global security and the Middle East and the special relationship!” As if it were unimaginable that a commuter in, say, Nevada, would not have these thoughts at the top of their minds, too. It makes me think of that bit in Mad Men when the sacked copywriter tries to patronise Don Draper by saying he feels sorry for him. “I don’t think of you at all,” says that other Don.

To truly understand why they failed, in other words, the real thing America’s left needs to understand is something they’re apt to struggle with far more, which is why Trump didn’t fail. Because, if you don’t believe that an American majority truly wants all the ugliness, sexism, oligarchy and dysfunction that his candidacy gleefully embodied, then what’s the thing, that germ of popular neglected truth, that made so many millions of utterly normal people cheerfully look past it all? No longer can any of us tell ourselves they were all fooled, or deluded, or just plain ignorant. They knew what they were doing, and they did it. Time to swallow that bitter pill. Good luck in keeping it down.
 
As far as Americans are concerned, and not the impression of people elsewhere, Trump's sales proposition is his version of "America First".

It's a policy that's pretty old, used by many politicians for 200 years. Trump's version puts American interests at the front of everything. At the same time he denies making America isolationist, just puts America first. So American jobs before helping other countries, American economy before other countries, American business before other countries, Americans before immigrants, American consumers before foreign consumers.

For a lot of people in manufacturing, they see their jobs preserved either by carrot (US goods being promoted) or stick (tariffs). So people worried about their jobs, the economy, inflation, immigration, gasoline prices, bearing the costs of going green, and supporting wars that are thousands of miles away have a clear, unambiguous message - the US is protecting you.

That's the proposition, that's what the people voted for.

The US is big enough and strong enough that it doesn't need to cooperate with the rest of the world. We know from the 'Get Brexit Done' thing that, if you want to attract the popular vote, the proposition needs to be simple. You know what you are going to get. And that's Trump's message - the interest of US citizens comes before NATO, EU, Ukraine, Palestine, ecology, everything in fact.

That's an objective view of Trump. I'm neither endorsing his policies, nor suggesting he can deliver on them.
 
As far as Americans are concerned, and not the impression of people elsewhere, Trump's sales proposition is his version of "America First".

It's a policy that's pretty old, used by many politicians for 200 years. Trump's version puts American interests at the front of everything. At the same time he denies making America isolationist, just puts America first. So American jobs before helping other countries, American economy before other countries, American business before other countries, Americans before immigrants, American consumers before foreign consumers.

For a lot of people in manufacturing, they see their jobs preserved either by carrot (US goods being promoted) or stick (tariffs). So people worried about their jobs, the economy, inflation, immigration, gasoline prices, bearing the costs of going green, and supporting wars that are thousands of miles away have a clear, unambiguous message - the US is protecting you.

That's the proposition, that's what the people voted for.

The US is big enough and strong enough that it doesn't need to cooperate with the rest of the world. We know from the 'Get Brexit Done' thing that, if you want to attract the popular vote, the proposition needs to be simple. You know what you are going to get. And that's Trump's message - the interest of US citizens comes before NATO, EU, Ukraine, Palestine, ecology, everything in fact.

That's an objective view of Trump. I'm neither endorsing his policies, nor suggesting he can deliver on them.
Great summary but I'd change one thing to: 'The US was big enough and strong enough that it didn't need to cooperate with the rest of the world'
 
No. There isn’t any balance to be had when talking about this person. Project 2025 is worth reading up on. The softening up exercise will take place during this term.
Implementation is supposedly to happen in his second term. Everyone should read and be aware of it.

 
It's fairly simple really. One topic I teach in my American politics class to my undergrads is the multiple theories of vote choice. Among them is rational choice, the notion that you vote for the candidate A which will make you better off as opposed to candidate B. Has anyone been in an American supermarket recently? Filled up their cars? Tried to buy/rent in the USA? The prices are utterly shocking, and many people are worse off now than they were under Trump. Now there are specific circumstances to that e.g Covid, but during my visits to the US when he was leader, these weren't the issues people were worried about, but they are the most important. I am in Michigan at the moment, as all of you know, a true battleground state. You would be amazed how many people said to me, 'look, I can't stand him, he's an idiot, he's a liar but Harris is part of the administration which has seen my living standards fall'. They are not idiots. These people, men, women, white and non white, have voted for Trump, are not MAGA cultists, and if they were, why did most of them vote Biden in 2020? Trump has benefitted from portraying himself as the change candidate, and America wanted a change and whichever Republican was running, they were nailed on to win. I don't think Harris could have done anymore than she already did. But the Dems should have sidelined Biden and started a new fresh ticket last year. But getting back to the point in hand, people just vote in what they believe is in their own interests and if that means less tax, cheaper gas prices, keeping your guns, deporting people that shouldn't be in the country, clamping down on the 'woke ideology' (whatever that means), then all the chaos and baggage that comes with Trump is just secondary.
 
I get the impression ordinary Americans are getting squeezed by big business and big Government, financially.

I read on Wikipedia - a single person in the USA on $40,000 a year pays about 25% of their income in income tax to the federal Government and they also pay a state income tax between 0% and 16% - someone in the UK (outside Scotland) on £30,000 pays about 16.5% in direct taxes to the UK Government and no local income tax. The US person may receive limited public medical and public dental care and less public welfare benefits in general.

A big mac meal can cost $8 in the USA and is £5.39 in the UK - so the notion that fast food in the USA is cheap is no longer true for many Americans.

If the USA does pay for 75% of NATO a lot of US federal taxes will have to go on defence, hence relative high taxes in the USA. hence the Trump threat to leave NATO if the European Members don't fully pay their way. I tend to think Trump wants to end US financed wars because they are expensive.

The tariffs stuff is aimed at China and some of the Far East. The US like the UK lost a lot of its manufacturing base to Chinese producers, leading to lower US incomes and rising unemployment in areas of the US where manufacturing was big. Many people believe the Chinese government subsidised their own manufacturing sector to make it more competitive. I honestly don't know, but we do know US manufacturing was decimated from 1980s just as Chinese manufacturing heavily expanded. There was a similar trend with US and Mexico too. Trump wants to reverse the trend.
 
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I honestly don't know, but we do know US manufacturing was decimated from 1980s just as Chinese manufacturing heavily expanded. There was a similar trend with US and Mexico too. Trump wants to reverse the trend.
He certainly campaigned - last time & this time - on the 'Rust Belt' narrative & there is a valid point to foreign countries subsidising their manufacturing to undercut Western competitiveness ( & as always our business & corporate leaders, throw our workers under the bus & onto welfare at the slightest prospect of more profit: relocating job to foreign countries )

However I doubt - very much - if Trump will follow through on reviving actual manufacturing in the US - the very people he claims to speak for: working class people, blue collar workers - he wants nothing to do with them other than for them to give him & his cronies power to gorge themselves on the $'s on offer..

I envisage billion$ will disappear into bitcoin chains with ridiculously grotesque Gov contracts in favour of him & his clan & the US electorate - esp the low paid, will be hit hardest..

I have zero faith in his ability to govern & can't see past a crushing 21st century Great Depression incoming - with those most needing the state to survive being affected the most, he may drive down immigration simply by ruining his own country..

The US Arabs that voted for him thinking he will end the Iran v Israel conflict that is killing thousands of Palestinians I fear will be soon aghast at the support he increases to Israel..

As for Ukraine, that is now or will soon be - entirely up to Europe to decide & we should support & band together, immediately, as a military alliance.. hopefully leading to a stronger more unified political alliance too EU+ which the UK needs to be part of as do other European nations - if they choose..

Change is inevitable & massive uncertainty due to political & military conflict drives it like little else - I'd hope for a European Socialism, over the Authoritarianism of Russia, China & soon the USA..
 
It's fairly simple really. One topic I teach in my American politics class to my undergrads is the multiple theories of vote choice. Among them is rational choice, the notion that you vote for the candidate A which will make you better off as opposed to candidate B. Has anyone been in an American supermarket recently? Filled up their cars? Tried to buy/rent in the USA? The prices are utterly shocking, and many people are worse off now than they were under Trump. Now there are specific circumstances to that e.g Covid, but during my visits to the US when he was leader, these weren't the issues people were worried about, but they are the most important. I am in Michigan at the moment, as all of you know, a true battleground state. You would be amazed how many people said to me, 'look, I can't stand him, he's an idiot, he's a liar but Harris is part of the administration which has seen my living standards fall'. They are not idiots. These people, men, women, white and non white, have voted for Trump, are not MAGA cultists, and if they were, why did most of them vote Biden in 2020? Trump has benefitted from portraying himself as the change candidate, and America wanted a change and whichever Republican was running, they were nailed on to win. I don't think Harris could have done anymore than she already did. But the Dems should have sidelined Biden and started a new fresh ticket last year. But getting back to the point in hand, people just vote in what they believe is in their own interests and if that means less tax, cheaper gas prices, keeping your guns, deporting people that shouldn't be in the country, clamping down on the 'woke ideology' (whatever that means), then all the chaos and baggage that comes with Trump is just secondary.
Exactly this, spot on summary.

You’ll have the 6th form politicians along soon sneering at those voters and calling them racist, rapist enablers, backwards, insular etc etc though.

😐
 
I read on Wikipedia - a single person in the USA on $40,000 a year pays about 25% of their income in income tax to the federal Government and they also pay a state income tax between 0% and 16% - someone in the UK (outside Scotland) on £30,000 pays about 16.5% in direct taxes to the government

Federal income tax is 12% at $40k.

State income tax varies between states. Two of the highest rates are New York and California are 6% at $40k.

What you pay in state income tax becomes a deductible on your federal tax bill. Other deductibles are contributions to your medical insurance, mortgage payments on your home, alimony, commuting to work costs, pension contributions. There are deductibles for single filing, or filing as a married couple.

$40k is a very low income though. The median is about $65k, which would ratchet both state and federal income taxes up a bit.

A lot of people regard Joe Biden as the reason for high inflation rates in the last 4 years. Inflation is lower now. Whether Trump will be able to keep inflation <2% is anyone's guess.
 
I have a gold tie. Purchased by my daughter in New York a few years ago. She bought it from Trump Towers and it's lable proudly states " A Trump Tie". On the reverse in small letters is " made in china".
Basically sums the fraud right up.
 
You would be amazed how many people said to me, 'look, I can't stand him, he's an idiot, he's a liar but Harris is part of the administration which has seen my living standards fall'. They are not idiots. These people, men, women, white and non white, have voted for Trump, are not MAGA cultists, and if they were, why did most of them vote Biden in 2020? Trump has benefitted from portraying himself as the change candidate, and America wanted a change and whichever Republican was running, they were nailed on to win. I don't think Harris could have done anymore than she already did. But the Dems should have sidelined Biden and started a new fresh ticket last year. But getting back to the point in hand, people just vote in what they believe is in their own interests and if that means less tax, cheaper gas prices, keeping your guns, deporting people that shouldn't be in the country, clamping down on the 'woke ideology' (whatever that means), then all the chaos and baggage that comes with Trump is just secondary.
They're not idiots to think that way, but they're certainly not clever either, it's not a thorough or logical thought process to come to the conclusions they do. The main problem with whinging about Biden for declining living standards is that is correlation is not causation. I bet 90% of them don't even know what that term means, never mind being able to spot when it applies/ does not apply.

The main problem during 20-24 (decline in living standards) was caused by 16-20, and it was baked in. Covid single handily was enough to absolutely hammer the living standards of practically everyone of everyone in the world, especially those at the bottom in developed countries, as the cost of it and inflation due to it guaranteed it. There is practically zero Biden could have done about that in a right wing country, with the wonky US system and various levels. The virus itself is to blame, along with those who denied its existence (China till it was too late) or went against healthcare advice (Trump is a great example of this), then fed are to blame for keeping rates too high too long, and they're independent.

Then the Russians kicked off with Ukraine (which soared world energy prices), and more inflation, that wasn't Biden's fault, but it became a massive problem for him and the USA's allies. So, as a result, Biden had to cough up and fund Ukraine, or it makes them look weak for not funding when the rest of NATO are (they don't like looking weak), and the reds take that as he's kicking off against Trumps mate, so no matter which way he handled that it wasn't going to work, it was a massive vote loser either way.

100% Biden should have left much earlier though or been kicked out, but him losing his marbles a lot of times when in the spotlight was being framed as "these are the policies of a bloke who has lost his marbles", where as in reality they were policies of a massive group of people who had looked over the detail many times, Biden was just stamping the approval. It's like they use Biden going nuts as a scapegoat when it's not really applying, and then ignore Trumps "promises" which are practically impossible, and also ignore the lies and him being an actual convicted criminal, as well as being a nutcase. The thing this time around is there are far less republicans to keep Trump in check, he fired them all last time, and employed a load of clowns.

US debt went up ~25% in Trumps last year, which he didn't have to make a plan for (as he was packing up his bags), and they've dropped debt by about 5% since, which is great going during such a bad time, and it's largely through increasing GDP by 20% in 4 years. This is where the UK is going to struggle with debt, much harder for us to increase GDP to bail the debt out.

The S&P 500 is up about 70% in the Biden years, it's made a lot of rich folk richer (largely in tech), but that's never going to make it through to those at the bottom with the Dems or Republicans, and the Republicans are far less likely, not exactly known for handouts etc.
 
No. There isn’t any balance to be had when talking about this person. Project 2025 is worth reading up on. The softening up exercise will take place during this term.
Implementation is supposedly to happen in his second term. Everyone should read and be aware of it.

His first term ended in 2021. How many terms is he going to have? 😬
 
His first term ended in 2021. How many terms is he going to have? 😬

As many as he wants. that the numbers look strange. In some instances more, especially men, voted than were on the register.
Alternately, Some serious tech heads talking about the fact they’ve hacked the code.
Love me a good conspiracy theory😉
 
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