Buy Gyokeres for any price?

Buy big vik

  • yes buy him.

    Votes: 52 30.8%
  • No mental price

    Votes: 117 69.2%

  • Total voters
    169
  • Poll closed .

Nano

Well-known member
I'm not cherry picking, the argument was that we need to spend a lot of money to get a 20+ goal striker, and we can't pick one up from the lower leagues....

I've counted for every striker who has scored 20+ goals in the past 10 years. More than half cost £2m or less, and more than half have been picked up in the lower leagues...

How can I do it the other way around? - I'm not saying every player less than £2m would be successful, I'm saying we need a different type of cherry picking as a club.
You do it the other way round by counting every budget striker purchase and see how they did, not just the ones that make it to the top scorer chart. If there were 200 of them and 20 scored 20 then that's only a 10% success rate of getting a good striker.
 

Charlie

Well-known member
Someone mentioned, what if we don't take a chance and not pay the 10-15 million and hope for the best with what we currently have ......
This time next season the better players we have already loaned will have gone back and we're back to square 1 .

Should we pay the money and take that chance
 

indeedido

Well-known member
we can, but we have to stop trying to buy the finished article at top dollar

Buy 3x 5m players instead of 1 15m. spread the risk, triple the chance of reward.
But each a much smaller chance of success however you dress it up.
You are also flip flopping all over on this issue.
 

Chutney

Well-known member
The data doesn't prove anything on its own. It's simply raw materials to test a hypothesis.

Dependent on the question, you can use it to support that hypothesis, but questions aren't free from bias nor are they typically comprehensive.

One thing is certain though, this isn't an exact science and you're all on crack if you think you can just quote numbers and expect that to mean you were right all along.

Not that this stuff isn't fascinating and valuable, but it's just fragments.
 

indeedido

Well-known member
Still making up numbers I see. Dear me.

Afonso Alves - what happens when you pay more than you can afford on some seemingly wonderful numbers.
Ironic you accusing anybody of making things up given you making up so much bile about the supposed sexual preferences of a member of the Royal Family.
 

coluka

Well-known member
I agree, but teams don't just magically acquire these £10-20m players before they are worth £15-20m... They spend time and resources scouting them.

We employ a recruitment TEAM, we have a scouting TEAM. If we're just going roll the dice and pay the asking price for the top scorer in the championship every time we have the money to do so... what's the point?

If we did buy Gyokores, and he doesn't work out... We'll find ourselves like we do every other 2-3 season cycle... Hiring a Mowbray/Pulis type to trim wages and reshape the squad (again).

Coventry bought Gyokeres for £1m, 12 months ago. Now they want £10m+ (probably closer to £15m)... Instead of just paying it and hoping he's still as good for us, invest the money in finding the next one.
But you can do both. We are doing that with Forss, we are trying to do it with Coburn. We can also spend on Gyokeres, a Prem loan like Muniz who has shown some ability and If Southampton sort out a striker or two, loan Armstrong. Larsen is a bigger risk for me than Gyokeres as he has done it in the league Larsen if he comes hasn’t. Hoppe has not done it yet anywhere in reality. Everybody is using the speculative press reports on Gyokeres asking price. I still hold belief this is incase the big boys come calling. They won’t pay it and neither will a championship team unless they use parachute payments. Of course I have no certain knowledge but I do think we could work a deal that suits using add ons and or sell on fees to reduce the guarantee payment. £12M over a 4 yr contract would be £3M per year in reality.

Get promotion, you’re laughing. You could speculate on the next Pukki or Riis, Gyokeres etc, but the risk of failure is higher for me. Businessmen don’t get rich by being mega cautious, they take calculated risk on the here and nowas well as caution on a slower twin track approach, in my experience anyway. Can’t wait to see how Gibson and Wilder‘s path goes, I hope they are on the same page come September.

Whatever happens on signings, I hope they both remain so moving forward.
 

Ash88

Well-known member
You do it the other way round by counting every budget striker purchase and see how they did, not just the ones that make it to the top scorer chart. If there were 200 of them and 20 scored 20 then that's only a 10% success rate of getting a good striker.

Of course there's more £2m players than £10m players... but the argument is WE CAN sign players from lower leagues who can go on to score 20+. It's a fact.

There has only ever been 10 strikers purchased by a championship team while in the championship (eg. Bournemouth bought Solanke while in the PL) for over £10m.

2 of those scored 20+ in their first season at the club (Gayle at Newcastle, Andre Gray at Burnley)... Another 1 scored 20 in their 2nd season (McCormack at Fulham).

7 have failed.

So you're right, the probability is technically 30% which is much better than considering all the strikers who have sold for £2m and didn't score 20 goals...

But lets blow £2m on a gamble instead of blowing £15m.... 3 out of those 7 failures are already Boro signings.
 

Alex-The-Kid

Well-known member
@indeedido after reading through this thread, do you believe considering our windfall we could truly afford him and invest in the other areas of the squad? And also steering clear of FFP charges?
 

Nano

Well-known member
Of course there's more £2m players than £10m players... but the argument is WE CAN sign players from lower leagues who can go on to score 20+. It's a fact.

There has only ever been 10 strikers purchased by a championship team while in the championship (eg. Bournemouth bought Solanke while in the PL) for over £10m.

2 of those scored 20+ in their first season at the club (Gayle at Newcastle, Andre Gray at Burnley)... Another 1 scored 20 in their 2nd season (McCormack at Fulham).

7 have failed.

So you're right, the probability is technically 30% which is much better than considering all the strikers who have sold for £2m and didn't score 20 goals...

But lets blow £2m on a gamble instead of blowing £15m.... 3 out of those 7 failures are already Boro signings.
But that's wrong again. Your question is really "does a proven championship goalscorer guarantee goals?". If it does it is worth signing them.

In that sample you have to include all the players that were bought by teams outside the championship, all the players that got promoted and continued to play in the PL, all the strikers that stayed in the championship and had another season. Aka is being on the top goalscorer list a good indication that the striker will be on there again?

The answer to that question is much more useful than "Is it better to spend £2m or £15m on a new striker?"
 

Simply red

Well-known member
You do it the other way round by counting every budget striker purchase and see how they did, not just the ones that make it to the top scorer chart. If there were 200 of them and 20 scored 20 then that's only a 10% success rate of getting a good striker.
Well done Ash88 , I get your drift,it's a risk if we sign Cole Stockton , Ross Stewart and Ryan Hardie in the end, obviously I would prefer any from Piroe , Gyokores , Riis, but maybe cheaper ones will work .Also , we seem to be going for top end loans in Armstrong and Muniz, which i will be happy with , but maybe others like Undav and Bustos would be as good , if not better. Proven goal scorers . Save Larsen and Hoppe for later unless it's a good deal, which it seems , it is not now. Call their bluff and look elsewhere. WTF are Groningen to be pishing us about, unproven and an expensive risk, same with Hope, not for me.
 
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BoroMart

Well-known member
But it does disprove the theory that people have been pushing on here that the key is to spend big on quality proven players.
I'd say those stats are inconclusive, you can get a high scoring striker spending big, or nurturing your own, or buying £1m talent.

None of those options are guaranteed to get you a good goalscorer, but neither is spending very little.
 

Alex-The-Kid

Well-known member
Well done Ash88 , I get your drift,it's a risk if we sign Cole Stockton , Ross Stewart and Ryan Hardie in the end, obviously I would prefer any from Piroe , Gyokores , Riis, but maybe cheaper ones will work such as Adebayo, Joao , Dykes. Also , we seem to be going for top end loans in Armstrong and Muniz, which i will be happy with , but maybe others like Undav and Bustos would be as good , if not better. Proven goal scorers . Save Larsen and Hoppe for later unless it's a good deal, which it seems , it is not now. Call their bluff and look elsewhere. WTF are Groningen to be pishing us about, unproven and an expensive risk, same with Hope, not for me.
Stockton, Stewart and hardie are league one footballers, buy players of this ilk and guess where we will be heading?
 

Chappy112

Well-known member
I'd say those stats are inconclusive, you can get a high scoring striker spending big, or nurturing your own, or buying £1m talent.

None of those options are guaranteed to get you a good goalscorer, but neither is spending very little.
But no one is saying spending little is a guarantee.
 

BoroMart

Well-known member
Of course there's more £2m players than £10m players... but the argument is WE CAN sign players from lower leagues who can go on to score 20+. It's a fact.
you can, but the vast majority of them don't.

Where our finances are, we need to make sure that we get bodies through the door, and that will cost. That means we can't spend 15m , or shouldn't.

We need a mix of players that are advanced enough to give us a chance to go up this year, plus some back ups that can improve if we don't go up. I'm happy for the 1 player at 9m, and two 2m players.
 

BoroMart

Well-known member
But no one is saying spending little is a guarantee.
no, but it could be interpreted that way, and people are saying that spending big doesn't guarantee. There is risk however much we spend, there are no guarantees, we have to trust Wilder and Scott to get the right players for now and for the mid-term based on a budget that we don't have visibility of.
 

lostinyorkshire

Well-known member
Man City Liverpool and Man Utd in the past dont stay at the top of the league by looking for projects. They buy the best players to keep them at the top of the league.

Its not rocket science really. Go and get rhe best striker in the division if you want to finish at the top of the division
 

indeedido

Well-known member
@indeedido after reading through this thread, do you believe considering our windfall we could truly afford him and invest in the other areas of the squad? And also steering clear of FFP charges?
Absolutely.
I am focusing only on the £22.5m profit from player sales that will boost the P&L this season and impact across the next 3 years of FFP.
A £15m fee for G if we had to pay that would be £3m amortisation charge on the P&L this year and for the 5 years of his contract. The FFP impact of this is £9m across the same 3 year FFP period.
That leaves a lot of money to commit to fees and resultant amortisation across a 3 year period of FFP.
Im not even adding the Spence promotion bonus, or the Morris settlement to our budget as I don’t know the figures.
I am simply saying the club could spend a hell of a lot more than £15m, have a very healthy FFP position and significantly boost their promotion chances at this most opportune time.
I’m all for good frees like Lenihan, great loans like Giles and Steffen.
I’m sure we could and should borrow 3 more strong additions to the squad. The loan fees will hit P&L and FFP like amortisation, so I am not advocating they are free.
But there is easy scope to pay £22.5m in fees for the players we choose to buy, just from the Spence/Tav injection.

I’m also pro investing in potential based on great scouting. But there is a time for backing your judgement re signing real class that you can afford. Right now that is Gyokeres.
Gibson will choose how much to invest, more or less than£22.5m, but he won’t get a better chance to invest for promotion than now unless he pumps equity in or we sell more players of zero book value, which would weaken his squad, not strengthen it.
 

Alex-The-Kid

Well-known member
Absolutely.
I am focusing only on the £22.5m profit from player sales that will boost the P&L this season and impact across the next 3 years of FFP.
A £15m fee for G if we had to pay that would be £3m amortisation charge on the P&L this year and for the 5 years of his contract. The FFP impact of this is £9m across the same 3 year FFP period.
That leaves a lot of money to commit to fees and resultant amortisation across a 3 year period of FFP.
Im not even adding the Spence promotion bonus, or the Morris settlement to our budget as I don’t know the figures.
I am simply saying the club could spend a hell of a lot more than £15m, have a very healthy FFP position and significantly boost their promotion chances at this most opportune time.
I’m all for good frees like Lenihan, great loans like Giles and Steffen.
I’m sure we could and should borrow 3 more strong additions to the squad. The loan fees will hit P&L and FFP like amortisation, so I am not advocating they are free.
But there is easy scope to pay £22.5m in fees for the players we choose to buy, just from the Spence/Tav injection.

I’m also pro investing in potential based on great scouting. But there is a time for backing your judgement re signing real class that you can afford. Right now that is Gyokeres.
Gibson will choose how much to invest, more or less than£22.5m, but he won’t get a better chance to invest for promotion than now unless he pumps equity in or we sell more players of zero book value, which would weaken his squad, not strengthen it.
I totally agree with your points and share them myself, my understanding was there is actually money to spend this season even without the Spence and tav money. I think this season is a real opportunity for investment.
 

Ash88

Well-known member
you can, but the vast majority of them don't.

Where our finances are, we need to make sure that we get bodies through the door, and that will cost. That means we can't spend 15m , or shouldn't.

We need a mix of players that are advanced enough to give us a chance to go up this year, plus some back ups that can improve if we don't go up. I'm happy for the 1 player at 9m, and two 2m players.

The vast majority of every signing no matter what the price doesn't score the needed goals. Of course if you spend more, the probability of getting more increases... the same with most things outside of football too.

But the facts are, there's still a 70% failure rate when spending £10m+ and Middlesbrough as a club have failed spending £10m+ more than any other championship team over the last 10 years...

So lets not do it again.
 

Andy_W

Well-known member
I don’t think that’s what the lad is trying to prove though, he’s not saying that £2m players are all elite 😂

He’s saying that spending a fortune on players clearly isn’t a necessity to having a good goal scorer which his research proves.
It isn't a necessity, but to increase the odds of success in any one given year you need to go on to find more proven players, but yes they will cost more.

It's 100% about the timing and size of the club.
 
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