Buy Gyokeres for any price?

Buy big vik

  • yes buy him.

    Votes: 52 30.8%
  • No mental price

    Votes: 117 69.2%

  • Total voters
    169
  • Poll closed .
The data doesn't prove anything on its own. It's simply raw materials to test a hypothesis.

Dependent on the question, you can use it to support that hypothesis, but questions aren't free from bias nor are they typically comprehensive.

One thing is certain though, this isn't an exact science and you're all on crack if you think you can just quote numbers and expect that to mean you were right all along.

Not that this stuff isn't fascinating and valuable, but it's just fragments.
 
Still making up numbers I see. Dear me.

Afonso Alves - what happens when you pay more than you can afford on some seemingly wonderful numbers.
Ironic you accusing anybody of making things up given you making up so much bile about the supposed sexual preferences of a member of the Royal Family.
 
I agree, but teams don't just magically acquire these £10-20m players before they are worth £15-20m... They spend time and resources scouting them.

We employ a recruitment TEAM, we have a scouting TEAM. If we're just going roll the dice and pay the asking price for the top scorer in the championship every time we have the money to do so... what's the point?

If we did buy Gyokores, and he doesn't work out... We'll find ourselves like we do every other 2-3 season cycle... Hiring a Mowbray/Pulis type to trim wages and reshape the squad (again).

Coventry bought Gyokeres for £1m, 12 months ago. Now they want £10m+ (probably closer to £15m)... Instead of just paying it and hoping he's still as good for us, invest the money in finding the next one.
But you can do both. We are doing that with Forss, we are trying to do it with Coburn. We can also spend on Gyokeres, a Prem loan like Muniz who has shown some ability and If Southampton sort out a striker or two, loan Armstrong. Larsen is a bigger risk for me than Gyokeres as he has done it in the league Larsen if he comes hasn’t. Hoppe has not done it yet anywhere in reality. Everybody is using the speculative press reports on Gyokeres asking price. I still hold belief this is incase the big boys come calling. They won’t pay it and neither will a championship team unless they use parachute payments. Of course I have no certain knowledge but I do think we could work a deal that suits using add ons and or sell on fees to reduce the guarantee payment. £12M over a 4 yr contract would be £3M per year in reality.

Get promotion, you’re laughing. You could speculate on the next Pukki or Riis, Gyokeres etc, but the risk of failure is higher for me. Businessmen don’t get rich by being mega cautious, they take calculated risk on the here and nowas well as caution on a slower twin track approach, in my experience anyway. Can’t wait to see how Gibson and Wilder‘s path goes, I hope they are on the same page come September.

Whatever happens on signings, I hope they both remain so moving forward.
 
You do it the other way round by counting every budget striker purchase and see how they did, not just the ones that make it to the top scorer chart. If there were 200 of them and 20 scored 20 then that's only a 10% success rate of getting a good striker.

Of course there's more £2m players than £10m players... but the argument is WE CAN sign players from lower leagues who can go on to score 20+. It's a fact.

There has only ever been 10 strikers purchased by a championship team while in the championship (eg. Bournemouth bought Solanke while in the PL) for over £10m.

2 of those scored 20+ in their first season at the club (Gayle at Newcastle, Andre Gray at Burnley)... Another 1 scored 20 in their 2nd season (McCormack at Fulham).

7 have failed.

So you're right, the probability is technically 30% which is much better than considering all the strikers who have sold for £2m and didn't score 20 goals...

But lets blow £2m on a gamble instead of blowing £15m.... 3 out of those 7 failures are already Boro signings.
 
@indeedido after reading through this thread, do you believe considering our windfall we could truly afford him and invest in the other areas of the squad? And also steering clear of FFP charges?
 
Of course there's more £2m players than £10m players... but the argument is WE CAN sign players from lower leagues who can go on to score 20+. It's a fact.

There has only ever been 10 strikers purchased by a championship team while in the championship (eg. Bournemouth bought Solanke while in the PL) for over £10m.

2 of those scored 20+ in their first season at the club (Gayle at Newcastle, Andre Gray at Burnley)... Another 1 scored 20 in their 2nd season (McCormack at Fulham).

7 have failed.

So you're right, the probability is technically 30% which is much better than considering all the strikers who have sold for £2m and didn't score 20 goals...

But lets blow £2m on a gamble instead of blowing £15m.... 3 out of those 7 failures are already Boro signings.
But that's wrong again. Your question is really "does a proven championship goalscorer guarantee goals?". If it does it is worth signing them.

In that sample you have to include all the players that were bought by teams outside the championship, all the players that got promoted and continued to play in the PL, all the strikers that stayed in the championship and had another season. Aka is being on the top goalscorer list a good indication that the striker will be on there again?

The answer to that question is much more useful than "Is it better to spend £2m or £15m on a new striker?"
 
You do it the other way round by counting every budget striker purchase and see how they did, not just the ones that make it to the top scorer chart. If there were 200 of them and 20 scored 20 then that's only a 10% success rate of getting a good striker.
Well done Ash88 , I get your drift,it's a risk if we sign Cole Stockton , Ross Stewart and Ryan Hardie in the end, obviously I would prefer any from Piroe , Gyokores , Riis, but maybe cheaper ones will work .Also , we seem to be going for top end loans in Armstrong and Muniz, which i will be happy with , but maybe others like Undav and Bustos would be as good , if not better. Proven goal scorers . Save Larsen and Hoppe for later unless it's a good deal, which it seems , it is not now. Call their bluff and look elsewhere. WTF are Groningen to be pishing us about, unproven and an expensive risk, same with Hope, not for me.
 
Last edited:
But it does disprove the theory that people have been pushing on here that the key is to spend big on quality proven players.
I'd say those stats are inconclusive, you can get a high scoring striker spending big, or nurturing your own, or buying £1m talent.

None of those options are guaranteed to get you a good goalscorer, but neither is spending very little.
 
Well done Ash88 , I get your drift,it's a risk if we sign Cole Stockton , Ross Stewart and Ryan Hardie in the end, obviously I would prefer any from Piroe , Gyokores , Riis, but maybe cheaper ones will work such as Adebayo, Joao , Dykes. Also , we seem to be going for top end loans in Armstrong and Muniz, which i will be happy with , but maybe others like Undav and Bustos would be as good , if not better. Proven goal scorers . Save Larsen and Hoppe for later unless it's a good deal, which it seems , it is not now. Call their bluff and look elsewhere. WTF are Groningen to be pishing us about, unproven and an expensive risk, same with Hope, not for me.
Stockton, Stewart and hardie are league one footballers, buy players of this ilk and guess where we will be heading?
 
I'd say those stats are inconclusive, you can get a high scoring striker spending big, or nurturing your own, or buying £1m talent.

None of those options are guaranteed to get you a good goalscorer, but neither is spending very little.
But no one is saying spending little is a guarantee.
 
Of course there's more £2m players than £10m players... but the argument is WE CAN sign players from lower leagues who can go on to score 20+. It's a fact.
you can, but the vast majority of them don't.

Where our finances are, we need to make sure that we get bodies through the door, and that will cost. That means we can't spend 15m , or shouldn't.

We need a mix of players that are advanced enough to give us a chance to go up this year, plus some back ups that can improve if we don't go up. I'm happy for the 1 player at 9m, and two 2m players.
 
But no one is saying spending little is a guarantee.
no, but it could be interpreted that way, and people are saying that spending big doesn't guarantee. There is risk however much we spend, there are no guarantees, we have to trust Wilder and Scott to get the right players for now and for the mid-term based on a budget that we don't have visibility of.
 
Man City Liverpool and Man Utd in the past dont stay at the top of the league by looking for projects. They buy the best players to keep them at the top of the league.

Its not rocket science really. Go and get rhe best striker in the division if you want to finish at the top of the division
 
@indeedido after reading through this thread, do you believe considering our windfall we could truly afford him and invest in the other areas of the squad? And also steering clear of FFP charges?
Absolutely.
I am focusing only on the £22.5m profit from player sales that will boost the P&L this season and impact across the next 3 years of FFP.
A £15m fee for G if we had to pay that would be £3m amortisation charge on the P&L this year and for the 5 years of his contract. The FFP impact of this is £9m across the same 3 year FFP period.
That leaves a lot of money to commit to fees and resultant amortisation across a 3 year period of FFP.
Im not even adding the Spence promotion bonus, or the Morris settlement to our budget as I don’t know the figures.
I am simply saying the club could spend a hell of a lot more than £15m, have a very healthy FFP position and significantly boost their promotion chances at this most opportune time.
I’m all for good frees like Lenihan, great loans like Giles and Steffen.
I’m sure we could and should borrow 3 more strong additions to the squad. The loan fees will hit P&L and FFP like amortisation, so I am not advocating they are free.
But there is easy scope to pay £22.5m in fees for the players we choose to buy, just from the Spence/Tav injection.

I’m also pro investing in potential based on great scouting. But there is a time for backing your judgement re signing real class that you can afford. Right now that is Gyokeres.
Gibson will choose how much to invest, more or less than£22.5m, but he won’t get a better chance to invest for promotion than now unless he pumps equity in or we sell more players of zero book value, which would weaken his squad, not strengthen it.
 
Absolutely.
I am focusing only on the £22.5m profit from player sales that will boost the P&L this season and impact across the next 3 years of FFP.
A £15m fee for G if we had to pay that would be £3m amortisation charge on the P&L this year and for the 5 years of his contract. The FFP impact of this is £9m across the same 3 year FFP period.
That leaves a lot of money to commit to fees and resultant amortisation across a 3 year period of FFP.
Im not even adding the Spence promotion bonus, or the Morris settlement to our budget as I don’t know the figures.
I am simply saying the club could spend a hell of a lot more than £15m, have a very healthy FFP position and significantly boost their promotion chances at this most opportune time.
I’m all for good frees like Lenihan, great loans like Giles and Steffen.
I’m sure we could and should borrow 3 more strong additions to the squad. The loan fees will hit P&L and FFP like amortisation, so I am not advocating they are free.
But there is easy scope to pay £22.5m in fees for the players we choose to buy, just from the Spence/Tav injection.

I’m also pro investing in potential based on great scouting. But there is a time for backing your judgement re signing real class that you can afford. Right now that is Gyokeres.
Gibson will choose how much to invest, more or less than£22.5m, but he won’t get a better chance to invest for promotion than now unless he pumps equity in or we sell more players of zero book value, which would weaken his squad, not strengthen it.
I totally agree with your points and share them myself, my understanding was there is actually money to spend this season even without the Spence and tav money. I think this season is a real opportunity for investment.
 
you can, but the vast majority of them don't.

Where our finances are, we need to make sure that we get bodies through the door, and that will cost. That means we can't spend 15m , or shouldn't.

We need a mix of players that are advanced enough to give us a chance to go up this year, plus some back ups that can improve if we don't go up. I'm happy for the 1 player at 9m, and two 2m players.

The vast majority of every signing no matter what the price doesn't score the needed goals. Of course if you spend more, the probability of getting more increases... the same with most things outside of football too.

But the facts are, there's still a 70% failure rate when spending £10m+ and Middlesbrough as a club have failed spending £10m+ more than any other championship team over the last 10 years...

So lets not do it again.
 
I don’t think that’s what the lad is trying to prove though, he’s not saying that £2m players are all elite 😂

He’s saying that spending a fortune on players clearly isn’t a necessity to having a good goal scorer which his research proves.
It isn't a necessity, but to increase the odds of success in any one given year you need to go on to find more proven players, but yes they will cost more.

It's 100% about the timing and size of the club.
 
It isn't a necessity, but to increase the odds of success in any one given year you need to go on to find more proven players, but yes they will cost more.

It's 100% about the timing and size of the club.

Like I said in my prev post, you can throw money at almost anything outside of football too to increase your odds. Doesn't mean you should.

If you buy 2 lottery tickets instead of 1, you increase your odds.
 
If you're a crap team, not likely to get promotion and don't have any money then you have to (should) take risks on lower level/ cheaper players. Then you have to be excellent at picking them out, and then you also need to convince them to come to you, and not the other 10-20 interested teams. This should be us in some seasons, but shouldn't be in others. This isn't a season where it should.

There may be the odd one or two who are almost proven in league one, but they're going for 5m plus, and we would have little chance of attracting them to the North East. The chance of success needs to be more than three times that of someone for 15m (and the 15m player has a chance of being much better than this too), so you would need to buy three of them, which is spending the same money. You can only play one at any given time, so you end up backing up one which pays off, with two who will be terrible, not good enough for the squad. We don't need backup strikers, or second choices, we already have four of them, we need someone who is going to come in and be the number one pick, and play every week.

Does anyone seriously think Gyokeres wouldn't get 17 or more goals for us, in our current side, current style, current manager, and also contribute a lot to other players?

Does anyone think overall that Gyokeres couldn't score at a higher rate than Britt or Rhodes for us, this year, and offer far more linking up with other players?


Every year there's ~150 strikers in squads for Championship teams, last year 7 players scored 17, only 1 in 20 is making the cut, year before it was 5 (1 in 30), year before 6 (1 in 25).

Look at the teams who went up automatically last year, 1 & 2, they had Mitrovic and Solanke, combined purchase price of 45m. Grant was on the +17 list he was about 15m. The other three were Weimann, Piroe and Diaz, none of them playing for side above us, suggesting they were less likely to go up, and hence did not need to buy a ready made striker. Weimann took 3 years to come good, Piroe came good first year for 2m, good find. Diaz 7m, took 4 years to come good.

20/21, top of the list Toney (5m, 10m with addons) and there was zero chance of getting him up here, the same chance we had of getting Maja from league 1, who then flopped ever since. Armstrong scored 1 in 2 in league one, came good in third season, we don't have that time. Pukki (already proven, they had him a few years, will cover that later)

19/20 Mitrovic (25m), Watkins 2m came good in third season, Grabban £6m (always got goals, older, think we tried to sign but wouldn't come here), Grant 15m, Wells 5m (think we tried to sign, wouldn't come here)

18/19 Pukki free transfer as he was out of contract, this doesn't mean he was a bad player, or much of a risk, lots of competition to get him though, fair play to Norwich on that one, Muapay 2m came good in second season, Abraham (prem loan, already proven in 16/17), gayle (prem loan, already proven in 16/17)

Most of those are already proven players, expensive players or players who did not come good in their first or second year.

The point is if we think the side has a great chance of promotion this year, then we don't have time to wait for an investment to pay off, and it would be very risky to expect an unproven player to pay off. If it doesn't pay off this year then next year we will likely be doing it without Jones, Giles, Steffen, Fry, Howson, Wilder etc.

As above, to even get a cheap signing to make the list, they're normally players in the value range of 2-7m, and a lot of the time they take years to come good. The very obvious prospects we have probably been in for, like just about every other club, but we got none of them.

Getting a proven player on loan from the prem is fine (if we can get one, an they want to come), but likely to be on loan, or expensive.

As for cheaper players, in the last few years we've had: Sporar, Balogun, Connoly, Ikpeazu, Watmore, Akpom, Fletcher, Nmecha, Gestede all on loan or costing <7m. None of them really proven, none of them worked (enough to start every game in a top 3 side).

Then we've had Bamford, good buy at 5.5m (sold for 9m?) but we know he was relatively proven (albeit an outcast), still only got 11 goals though (albeit played out of position a lot).
Assombalonga 15m, proven championship buy, scored at a rate of 1 in 2 for the games he started (for us) for two years, then we let him run his contract down.
Rhodes 10m (sold for 10m), proven championship buy, scored at a rate of 1 in 2 (for us) in the games he started, in the negative Karanka team.
Braithwaite (£9m), he was a good player, highly rated and good enough for La Liga/ Barcelona seemingly, but not really a striker and obviously got fed up with Monk, we got more than half of our money back.

Gees, the best striker we've had in recent times was Stuani, and he was cheap, but even when he was here we didn't even realise he was a striker. Couldn't even see what was right in front of us.

Those four are the only ones who really worked or could have worked, and none of them were anywhere near free, two of them we got at least our money back. We messed up the Assombalonga situation, he wasn't the problem initially, we were.
 
Last edited:
Like I said in my prev post, you can throw money at almost anything outside of football too to increase your odds. Doesn't mean you should.

If you buy 2 lottery tickets instead of 1, you increase your odds.

The point is do you think if we got a 20 goal striker (maybe even 17), is this our best opportunity than any of the previous 5 years? I do, by a long way. This massively effects how you should look at the current situation, the chance of getting the premiership reward is far higher this year, than any recent year. This is why we need to be taking less chance with who we buy.

We don't need second choice strikers, we need someone who will be first choice and play every game, who will get goals and who is also a good player. We also need a return this year, not in 2-3 years time. I expect if we don't go up this year we will have a worse side, worse manager, less crativity and back to playing lump ball or defensive.

The previous cheap purchases of Watmore and Akpom aren't going to come in and play every game and get 20 goals, nor is Coburn, it's just not going to happen. Forss might have a chance, but he wasn't free, and hasn't been signed to be the number 1, otherwise we wouldn't be looking for a number 1.

We could rotate 5 strikers and hope to get 40 goals between them and hope that works (it won't be enough for auto promotion), but I think we need to be looking at 20 from one guy, and 30 from the rest, to take it to the next level.

I 100% understand yours and everyone's points, but I don't think most of you are placing enough value on what we could create this year, and what damage we could do with a top striker. I think you're thinking with the same mentality as the last few years, but I think the situation has changed, and our bank balance/ FFP situation definitely has.

If we had the side at the beginning of last year or the years earlier, with Warnock, or under Pulis or Woodgate I wouldn't think 15m on a striker was a good idea, as we couldn't likely supply them, and the rest of the side is not up to the task for top 3. It was edging there though, so we did have time to get in some cheap strikers and hope they paid off in 2-3 years time, but we didn't do it, they all failed (not good enough for top 3 anyway).

I just think with having Giles and Jones, and being solid everywhere else we have a big chance, and we need a big player, who will do it this year, not in the next three. If we fail and go back to looking like a scraping play offs side, then I'll change my mind and say we probably don't need to spend as much, as we're going to have time to let players develop, and if we get lucky, great.

The above is all under the assumption that we think McGree can step up, and that there would be some funds remaining for other backups, or we can take risks on cheaper players (as they would be backups).
 
Last edited:
Back
Top