Boris about to give an update

Chappy112 said:
I was thinking about this earlier and now that it's exactly what the government have done I wondered how this actually works. If the government closed pubs and restaurants would those businesses be due some sort of compensation or insurance money or is that not how it works? By not shutting them but telling people not to go they're essentially forcing them to close without doing it themselves, is that to avoid having to pay them money? Or would they never be due money anyway?
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They would be entitled to insurance pay outs or compensation and my interpretation is that is why the Government hasn’t gone as far as putting a blanket ban on them opening to defer or prevent these payouts, it will happen at some point for me we should just do it now and have a clearly defined rules.
 
An absolute cnuts trick by Johnson and his friends.
Those running pubs, those working in pubs totally hung out to dry. They will choose to close, of course, they will have no choice.
They didn’t ban gatherings - waited for the relevant authorities to do that. They have now sided with insurance companies.
France and the Nordics have shown the way forward

Shameful for our lot
 
1finny said:
An absolute cnuts trick by Johnson and his friends.
Those running pubs, those working in pubs totally hung out to dry. They will choose to close, of course, they will have no choice.
They didn’t ban gatherings - waited for the relevant authorities to do that. They have now sided with insurance companies.
France and the Nordics have shown the way forward

Shameful for our lot
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The Arc in Stockton has unilaterally decided to close as a direct consequence.
 
When asked for figures of confirmed numbers of positive tests in the UK Sir Patrick Vallance managed a 3 minute monologue without once mentioning a number. It’s like being asked what’s 3+2 and answering with the recipe for Coq Au Vin and no one pulled him up on it. It’s no wonder Johnson is vague and muddled in his policy if that’s the information he’s been advised with.
 
On Channel 4 News tonight they made mention of the modelling that these decisions are being based on.
The bit from 14:45 below gives some idea of the mortality predictions that have seen this quite dramatic shift in policy. As more numbers come out then I think it's fair to say that we might see a move away from suggestions of actions to more official mandates.
 
Well it proves one thing, you don't need to be an expert to be able to look at what has happened in other countries and wonder how those lessons can be learned.
It might give your opinion more credence if you have letters after your name, but commonsense is commonsense at the end of the day.
 
All bars, restaurants and gyms closed here from 8pm. Restaurants can still do take out. One supermarket chain is opening between 6am and 7:30 am for over 60s only, then closing for half an hour to restock. Needless to say, this has nothing to do with the orange muppet.
 
dooderooni said:
And Peston has an extract of the aforementioned report on his twitter feed.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETQVxPzWAAUKuSB?format=jpg&name=large

Shitjustgotreal
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Reading that extract of the report is genuinely terrifying. It makes all the accusations that the Government was fiddling whilst Rome burnt (actually whilst the flames were just starting) feel all the more real.

If that modelling is anywhere approaching correct (bearing in mind that much of it is best case scenario) then we are about to experience something for which none of us is properly prepared and none of us has any relevant reference point.
 
Things changing by the hour here too, although I suppose as an Island in the Pacific we are better placed (Geographically) to self isolate as a country.
Everybody coming in now has to self isolate for 2 weeks, and tourists etc have to prove that they have a plan for those 2 weeks, or they will be sent back on the next available flight. Its going to be hard for lots of businesses over here, us included (although I work in a wholesale garden nursery we do run an AirBnB from home), as we rely on tourism in a massive way. In fact, NZ doubles its population with the number of tourists in a year so the pain is going to be felt.

There is a big push here to promote staying within the country for holidays, and hopefully this will help to mitigate any damage to the economy, although it is going to take a huge hit.

However, if the virus spreads then all of that will go out the door and we are in for a very long Winter & Spring.
 
For those who have plenty of time to spare:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Modeling is an interesting academic exercise. But the more variables, the more assumptions and the more inaccurate the model. The question is what assumptions does the modeling make. A key assumption is how well the over 70's adhere to the rules. You can do some very basic math to get a rough idea of the impact. 20 million over 70's. Say 60% infected and 3% mortality. Imperial College use an adherence rate of 75% which leads to something 600,000 deaths.

But if 95% of over 70's self-isolate the number becomes 120,000. And if no one takes a blind bit of notice then the number of dead will be well over 2 million.

The more religiously we follow the guidance, the fewer people die. If you're older, or know someone who is older, or know someone with vulnerability, then you can do a lot of good by encouraging them to accept the rules and remain indoors, or if they venture out, to ensure they don't come into contact with anyone else. And if you can help them on an ongoing basis to adhere to the rules even better.

Of course if everyone who has the virus isolates for a week, or two weeks if they have family at home, then in theory over time the number of infected persons should fall rapidly or at least not escalate as rapidly.

But then in theory, if all movement outside and external social contact was prevented and enforced by law for a two week period (with very limited exceptions), the epidemic could be over in a few weeks. Which is more or less what China did by welding people into their own homes etc.
 
And there is the crux BR!4 - ‘if we imposed’ the rules
Yet again we are the country taking a different stance to the rest of the world.

Our behaviour as a society is really interesting. It is like we have become lemmings over the last few years believing anything we are told. No rigorous challenge to the leadership team, almost blind loyalty that ‘we are the best so must be right’.
Baffling in the extreme
 
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