Bitcoin News Thread

UTB1979 said:
You only make a loss if you sell for less than you bought. I’ve held my initial investment since 2016 so I have at one point seen huge sums wiped off but the coins were still mine so you just sit patiently and wait for the price to increase again.
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You also make a loss if it goes to zero, or can take serious hits if you have to liquidate to pay for day to day life when the price is not in your favour.

Don't take this the wrong way, but on here I've only read of people who invested loads in 2016 or 19-20 and held with diamond hands since. I've , heard next to nothing of anyone who bought in 2018,21,22 and sold for a loss etc. The only place which seems to have honesty about losses is r/wallstreetbets but a lot of that is like a sick joke 😆
Obviously not everyone is holding and winning, as is evidenced by trading volumes, so for the massive winners there are lots of other big losers.

I'm 100% not saying you've not made big gains, the way you write I think you have, but I'm interested to know more about how and when, and what your decision making process has been along the way.

To give a heads up on what I did, and why I have an interest:
I got in around late 17 I think, with about 5k for one coin as far as I recall, and sold out fully when it went back down to around my buy in, about a year later. It was too volatile for me, seemed a lot more like gambling than investing. I put about 50% of my "portfolio" on that (lunacy), but wasn't massive ££ as I had just bought a house etc and pay was not that great back then, didn't have much spare to invest etc.

I would be tempted to go back in on BTC with maybe 2-5% of my current portfolio, to reflect the risk, but won't be buying anywhere near these prices. I said the same on another thread around March when it was about 70k then too. I would want it at around 35-40k. Effectively with this being so volatile I would probably try and average that buy in out over 6-12 months. I've got about 35% of my pot in ISA's (S&P/ All world etc) and about 50% in general investing (S&P/ All World etc), and the other 15% is just random punts which I've been doing for a couple of years and have done well in the last year with Nvidia, AMD, Novo Nordisk etc. If I was putting cash in BTC it would be out of the "random punts" pot, so would need more merit than whatever else I pick at the time.

Feel free to answer as many or none of these questions as you want:
What was your initial investment back then in 2016, and what % was that of your overall portfolio back then, and why?
What % of your portfolio is it now, and why?
Have you sold any or bought any since, if so when/ why?
What/ how much per year have you been living off since you changed jobs from whatever you were doing into full time trading/ investing?
I take it that's just from selling off shares/ BTC/ liquidating and paying the tax etc?
What do you do if the price drops 70-80% and you need to pay the bills, it's done this about once every two years?
Paid your house off?
Have you planned for a hefty CGT bill?
Liquidated any and bought back before capital gains taxes likely go up?
 
Brian Marwood said:
You are unwittingly doing that potentially when you state as fact 10x gains in the next 5-10 years.
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Ok no worries. I was just offering to help you. I said do your own research as it’s your money. Most global banks have analyst predictions for the next few years. They’re by some of the world’s leading financial analysts. There’s huge amounts of info so take a look if you want. Happy to help if you need
 
Andy_W said:
You also make a loss if it goes to zero, or can take serious hits if you have to liquidate to pay for day to day life when the price is not in your favour.

Don't take this the wrong way, but on here I've only read of people who invested loads in 2016 or 19-20 and held with diamond hands since. I've , heard next to nothing of anyone who bought in 2018,21,22 and sold for a loss etc. The only place which seems to have honesty about losses is r/wallstreetbets but a lot of that is like a sick joke 😆
Obviously not everyone is holding and winning, as is evidenced by trading volumes, so for the massive winners there are lots of other big losers.

I'm 100% not saying you've not made big gains, the way you write I think you have, but I'm interested to know more about how and when, and what your decision making process has been along the way.

To give a heads up on what I did, and why I have an interest:
I got in around late 17 I think, with about 5k for one coin as far as I recall, and sold out fully when it went back down to around my buy in, about a year later. It was too volatile for me, seemed a lot more like gambling than investing. I put about 50% of my "portfolio" on that (lunacy), but wasn't massive ££ as I had just bought a house etc and pay was not that great back then, didn't have much spare to invest etc.

I would be tempted to go back in on BTC with maybe 2-5% of my current portfolio, to reflect the risk, but won't be buying anywhere near these prices. I said the same on another thread around March when it was about 70k then too. I would want it at around 35-40k. Effectively with this being so volatile I would probably try and average that buy in out over 6-12 months. I've got about 35% of my pot in ISA's (S&P/ All world etc) and about 50% in general investing (S&P/ All World etc), and the other 15% is just random punts which I've been doing for a couple of years and have done well in the last year with Nvidia, AMD, Novo Nordisk etc. If I was putting cash in BTC it would be out of the "random punts" pot, so would need more merit than whatever else I pick at the time.

Feel free to answer as many or none of these questions as you want:
What was your initial investment back then in 2016, and what % was that of your overall portfolio back then, and why?
What % of your portfolio is it now, and why?
Have you sold any or bought any since, if so when/ why?
What/ how much per year have you been living off since you changed jobs from whatever you were doing into full time trading/ investing?
I take it that's just from selling off shares/ BTC/ liquidating and paying the tax etc?
What do you do if the price drops 70-80% and you need to pay the bills, it's done this about once every two years?
Paid your house off?
Have you planned for a hefty CGT bill?
Liquidated any and bought back before capital gains taxes likely go up?
Click to expand...
I have sufficient fiat currency and shares in a major tech company. So I have a few bases covered. It won’t have volatility like the early days now. Bull runs are generally a 4 year cycle and once the US election is done it’s will most likely rapidly go up. It’s going up steadily the last 6 months. I’m fully up to speed on everything don’t worry. I’m not trading at all I just hold it currently. Initial investment was £4K. I was sure it was ye future and took the risk. It went to around 30k then collapsed to £300 but I was confident it would increase again once more people and companies caught on. That was everything I had in the world. I’d researched and worked for one of the main platforms they’re developed on so I was fortunate to have an insight. I’ve not worked for 2 years. I rent atm as I had to move back home to care for my mum so I’m not planning to stay up here. It’s then progressively increased over the years to a nice number and I put money into others that have worked out.
 
Andy_W said:
I would be tempted to go back in on BTC with maybe 2-5% of my current portfolio, to reflect the risk, but won't be buying anywhere near these prices. I said the same on another thread around March when it was about 70k then too. I would want it at around 35-40k. Effectively with this being so volatile I would probably try and average that buy in out over 6-12 months.
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You had this opportunity for two years between 22 and 24 when it was down at $20-$30k and you didn't invest so that's probably not true. If you had done that at that point you'd have doubled your investment by now. Even if you had done that since march and made a monthly investment you'd be up on your investments. Everyone always says the same thing about "it's too late to get in now, I'll wait until it comes down" and then when it comes down they say "it's too risky, it's going to go to £0". It's currently near the all-time high and chances are it'll be available for 20% less at some point in the next few months and I don't think you will invest*.

There probably aren't many people on here that will tell you about losses because the vast majority of people have never invested in it. This isn't a crypto forum so the 2% of the population that have invested are probably reflected by the small number of posters that have invested. The average age of crypto investors is probably a lot younger than the average age of this forum as well. The fact that it has risen over time means the majority of investors haven't lost money. The people trying to make quick money, aka the gamblers, are the ones that will have lost and gamblers don't talk about their losses.

*I think I've said in the past I am not a big time investor or anything. I invested a very small amount several years ago and held onto it. It is worth a lot more than it was in % terms but not in absolute terms (it is not even as much as a month's pay). I am extremely small-time. I am just an interested party that has done a lot of reading but all my investments are in low cost index funds. I am not adding to my investment even though I do think it would be a good investment but I do wish I had continued to invest regularly over the years instead of just watching it go up and down but I don't really regret prioritising safe investments.
 
Andy_W said:
That table is a joke, must be from a crypto/ bitcoin site, surely? I've got about 1-2% of my investments in Crypto, but it's basically a combination of hedge/ FOMO and my belief that it works quite well on the greater fool theory aspect. I don't think it's going to do anything notable in my lifetime (as in come into wide use). The price might keep going up, just based on the greater fool theory, which is the main reason I've punted into it on a small scale.

For bitcoin to "win", it would need pretty much all the other crypto to lose, as well as beat all other currencies. Although bitcoin is crypto and the main one, it's difficult to lump all those things which are good about bitcoin in the same column as crypto, as there are various options etc. A lot of the pro's of bitcoin are the technology/ blockchain, not the actual crypto or bitcoin themselves.

Dollar not durable? 99.999% of the value of the transactions is just numbers on a screen, same applies to gold for portability. The only people lugging gold bars around are the miners. Gold and the dollar have been around for an exceptionally long time, proving their durability, bitcoin has only really been known about in the public domain since around 2017.

You can divide a dollar down to a cent, and the guys mine gold which is barely visible to the naked eye.

Online transactions for all are as secure as you want them to be. But writing a bitcoin wallet list of access codes down is not safe, and there's also a risk of losing it and never finding it again (I did this, like may have). If you lose your bank pin, account no or logon details you can get them all back relatively easily. You can even get access to dead peoples accounts if you've got permission/ rights.

The dollar is more decentralized than bitcoin, it's practically the world currency, the number of things controlling the price of the dollar is massive, this is both a good and bad thing but it keeps the price/ value in check. Never mind there are other currencies which can be used to hedge the dollar.

Gold being fairly scarce is a good thing, it's becoming more costly to mine, and harder to find, this will probably help gold prices long term, but there's also a chance that people realise it actually has little physical use in reality. I think it's similar to bitcoin in this way.

Most people are investing in bitcoin because they think the price will go up, but I bet not many are truthfully investing in it that think it will get physically used day to day. There are a million other options for investing which can be extremely diversified, with proven good returns over very long timeframes, bitcoin is also competing with those.

There are probably a limited few key players in bitcoin, as miners/ major holders, and they probably have more control of the price of bitcoin than the US government has control over price of the dollar.

There should be rows for:
Investment risk:
Investment track record:
Volatility:
Covered by the FSCS:
Ponzi scheme:
Greater fool theory:
Chance of going to zero:
Exceptional waste of energy:
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You can purchase a back up system should you lose your wallet but mines in a bank vault
 
UTB1979 said:
Ok no worries. I was just offering to help you. I said do your own research as it’s your money. Most global banks have analyst predictions for the next few years. They’re by some of the world’s leading financial analysts. There’s huge amounts of info so take a look if you want. Happy to help if you need
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Yet they didn't see 2008 coming. In the same way they won't see war coming, earthquakes, El Nino years, Brexit etc etc etc.

With respect, and I don't want to sound patronising, I've been in finance and trading for over 25 years so don't need any help.
 
Brian Marwood said:
Yet they didn't see 2008 coming. In the same way they won't see war coming, earthquakes, El Nino years, Brexit etc etc etc.

With respect, and I don't want to sound patronising, I've been in finance and trading for over 25 years so don't need any help.
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No worries I was just offering from the wallet and platform standpoint as it’s not straight forward. Crypto is not finance it’s blockchain technology so financial insight isnt going to help. I don’t feel patronised 👍
 
UTB1979 said:
No worries I was just offering from the wallet and platform standpoint as it’s not straight forward. Crypto is not finance it’s blockchain technology so financial insight isnt going to help. I don’t feel patronised 👍
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Appreciate that, as I said earlier I am genuinely happy for those who got in at the right time and have made money from it but I just don't see 10x gains in 5-10 years. That is my personal opinion and based purely on the fact that technology is moving so quickly that this could be redundant by then due to something more advanced that has yet to be dreamed up.
 
Brian Marwood said:
Yet they didn't see 2008 coming. In the same way they won't see war coming, earthquakes, El Nino years, Brexit etc etc etc.

With respect, and I don't want to sound patronising, I've been in finance and trading for over 25 years so don't need any
Click to expand...

Brian Marwood said:
Appreciate that, as I said earlier I am genuinely happy for those who got in at the right time and have made money from it but I just don't see 10x gains in 5-10 years. That is my personal opinion and based purely on the fact that technology is moving so quickly that this could be redundant by then due to something more advanced that has yet to be dreamed up.
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It won’t be redundant until we advance quantum computing. The next phase of the web is the infrastructure built on the blockchain. All major finance companies have a blockchain team working on implementing this technology into their financial systems. It will be a major part of your daily working life soon. Traditional finance is scrambling to put this infrastructure in place. Traditional financial transactions and systems are now the worst example of the digital world. It’s dead and that’s why they’re embracing the blockchain. The current financial systems are like a cheque book 30 years ago when the WWW was coming. I have investment in a decentralised auditing tech that is now a major threat to the big 4 as it can audit in seconds even election results. The efficiencies and cost reductions they will bring make it impossible for all the finance to embrace it. Look into it mate it’s very interesting
 
UTB1979 said:
I have sufficient fiat currency and shares in a major tech company. So I have a few bases covered. It won’t have volatility like the early days now. Bull runs are generally a 4 year cycle and once the US election is done it’s will most likely rapidly go up. It’s going up steadily the last 6 months. I’m fully up to speed on everything don’t worry. I’m not trading at all I just hold it currently. Initial investment was £4K. I was sure it was ye future and took the risk. It went to around 30k then collapsed to £300 but I was confident it would increase again once more people and companies caught on. That was everything I had in the world. I’d researched and worked for one of the main platforms they’re developed on so I was fortunate to have an insight. I’ve not worked for 2 years. I rent atm as I had to move back home to care for my mum so I’m not planning to stay up here. It’s then progressively increased over the years to a nice number and I put money into others that have worked out.
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What as in cash, just sat at 1% in the bank or 5% in some high interest account? Just one tech company or have you diversified that?

It's still extremely volatile, and hasn't proved otherwise, and will take being stable for years to change that (but then that likely also means less growth). It recently dropped ~27% from the March peak this year to September (with a lot of yoyo'ing in-between), with seemingly no major reason from what I can see? Why did it drop 27% and then go back up?
We're not back at that March peak yet, it is very close now though and a similar level to about 4 other slightly smaller peaks.

In that time (Since March) the S&P 500 has been down ~4% and ~10% and is overall up ~14%, the NDX down ~7% and overall is up 12%, all world up about 8%.

1730204731708.png

For it to go up you need more people buying in at the current price than those that are willing to sell and cash up, but we're near an all time high which is a long way from the trend line of where it often bottoms out etc (which would be about 35-40k now, hence my target buy in).

Sounds like you might be up ~50-100x on the 4k in? So about 200-400k on current prices? Would probably imagine you would need ~£1m to retire at ~40 and be comfortable (40k per year), based on typical 4% draw down rates (assuming you match the market), but you would probably need a larger draw down, not having a house paid off (unless you inherit on later down the line etc). That pot could need to be a hell of a lot more if you have mad volatility, but equally the volatility could bail you out, risky though.

I take it you have spoken to a Financial Advisor about your plan and retirement? I think you need to, if not, I would advise anyone too. I plan on going to see one again soon as I'm about the same age as you, and plan on retiring early also, or at least cutting my workload (and probably earnings) by 50-75%.
 
Brian Marwood said:
Yet they didn't see 2008 coming. In the same way they won't see war coming, earthquakes, El Nino years, Brexit etc etc etc.

With respect, and I don't want to sound patronising, I've been in finance and trading for over 25 years so don't need any help.
Click to expand...

In 2008 at the height of the sub-prime crisis Howard Marks of Oaktree (who I assume you have heard of) goes to his board wanting to raise $11 Billion.
They tell him he's mad and that the whole system is collapsing.
He says "If it does money isn't going to be worth anything. If it doesn't we will make a fortune".

For the sensible investor panic spells opportunity, and ironically it was because of 2008 Bitcoin was born.
An asset that has fixed supply. Can not be debased. Can not be corrupted by governments.
It's gone from zero to $70K. Ignore that if you want.

But naysayers are always welcome. The earth was flat. Planes would never fly. The internet would go the way of the fax machines.
People who can't see the world changing either end up thinking they are right and the whole world has gone mad, or they get onboard when at a later stage and pay a bigger price.

Everyone will have Bitcoin in their portfolio eventually via passive index funds anyway when more and more companies add to to their balance sheet.
 
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UTB1979 said:
All major finance companies have a blockchain team working on implementing this technology into their financial systems. It will be a major part of your daily working life soon. Traditional finance is scrambling to put this infrastructure in place.
Click to expand...

They have been scrambling for a long time to put this in place. During my time trading commodities this was on the tips of everyone's tongues in 2014 as it was 'imminent'. Fast forward 10 years and it is still being talked about as having the 'potential to revolutionise the industry'.

Why the slowburner in your option? It can't be tech barriers so I can only assume it is legislation? Or is there still a fear?
 
Andy_W said:
What as in cash, just sat at 1% in the bank or 5% in some high interest account? Just one tech company or have you diversified that?

It's still extremely volatile, and hasn't proved otherwise, and will take being stable for years to change that (but then that likely also means less growth). It recently dropped ~27% from the March peak this year to September (with a lot of yoyo'ing in-between), with seemingly no major reason from what I can see? Why did it drop 27% and then go back up?
We're not back at that March peak yet, it is very close now though and a similar level to about 4 other slightly smaller peaks.

In that time (Since March) the S&P 500 has been down ~4% and ~10% and is overall up ~14%, the NDX down ~7% and overall is up 12%, all world up about 8%.

View attachment 82713

For it to go up you need more people buying in at the current price than those that are willing to sell and cash up, but we're near an all time high which is a long way from the trend line of where it often bottoms out etc (which would be about 35-40k now, hence my target buy in).

Sounds like you might be up ~50-100x on the 4k in? So about 200-400k on current prices? Would probably imagine you would need ~£1m to retire at ~40 and be comfortable (40k per year), based on typical 4% draw down rates (assuming you match the market), but you would probably need a larger draw down, not having a house paid off (unless you inherit on later down the line etc). That pot could need to be a hell of a lot more if you have mad volatility, but equally the volatility could bail you out, risky though.

I take it you have spoken to a Financial Advisor about your plan and retirement? I think you need to, if not, I would advise anyone too. I plan on going to see one again soon as I'm about the same age as you, and plan on retiring early also, or at least cutting my workload (and probably earnings) by 50-75%.
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Volatility and risk are not the same thing - Warren Buffett.

Blackrock and Fidelity have brought out reports that make it clear adding around 2% of Bitcoin to your portfolio gives compounded upside and improves the sharpe ratio.

Of course if people YOLO into an asset with a 70% VOL then they deserve all they get.
But that isn't exclusive to crypto.
Most Ark Invest/Cathie Wood investors are sitting on huge losses.
Volatility brings out the naive and inexperienced investor wanting to get rich quick.
That is not the assets fault, it is a lack of education.
 
Andy_W said:
What as in cash, just sat at 1% in the bank or 5% in some high interest account? Just one tech company or have you diversified that?

It's still extremely volatile, and hasn't proved otherwise, and will take being stable for years to change that (but then that likely also means less growth). It recently dropped ~27% from the March peak this year to September (with a lot of yoyo'ing in-between), with seemingly no major reason from what I can see? Why did it drop 27% and then go back up?
We're not back at that March peak yet, it is very close now though and a similar level to about 4 other slightly smaller peaks.

In that time (Since March) the S&P 500 has been down ~4% and ~10% and is overall up ~14%, the NDX down ~7% and overall is up 12%, all world up about 8%.

View attachment 82713

For it to go up you need more people buying in at the current price than those that are willing to sell and cash up, but we're near an all time high which is a long way from the trend line of where it often bottoms out etc (which would be about 35-40k now, hence my target buy in).

Sounds like you might be up ~50-100x on the 4k in? So about 200-400k on current prices? Would probably imagine you would need ~£1m to retire at ~40 and be comfortable (40k per year), based on typical 4% draw down rates (assuming you match the market), but you would probably need a larger draw down, not having a house paid off (unless you inherit on later down the line etc). That pot could need to be a hell of a lot more if you have mad volatility, but equally the volatility could bail you out, risky though.

I take it you have spoken to a Financial Advisor about your plan and retirement? I think you need to, if not, I would advise anyone too. I plan on going to see one again soon as I'm about the same age as you, and plan on retiring early also, or at least cutting my workload (and probably earnings) by 50-75%.
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I don’t need a financial advisor it’s more than enough fortunately to worry on that front. It’s significantly more. I was very fortunate with shares I vested for a tech company I worked for. They were a silicone valley unicorn so it exploded on the Nasdaq and the shares were significant. I plan to liquidate the crypto at the end of the impending bull run. There’s no inheritance my family have zip. I have investment ts in various cryptos and techs so tes I have diversified. But I have researched heavily and had major insight working in silicone valley so I’m confident all will come to fruition. The volatility is not what it was in the easily days as it was mostly just retail investors. It’s now got governments banks and hedge funds massively invested. It’s created more legitimacy from the traditional investors so the boom and bust as it was is not going to happen like it used to.
 
Brian Marwood said:
They have been scrambling for a long time to put this in place. During my time trading commodities this was on the tips of everyone's tongues in 2014 as it was 'imminent'. Fast forward 10 years and it is still being talked about as having the 'potential to revolutionise the industry'.

Why the slowburner in your option? It can't be tech barriers so I can only assume it is legislation? Or is there still a fear?
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They’re mostly open source techs so are being developed by a development community a lot rather than employees. These aren’t VC backed techs that get pumped full of cash. Many coins aren’t yet mined and complex mathematical equations to expand the chain. Transaction speeds in say eth need to speed up and gas fees come down.
 
Brian Marwood said:
Appreciate that, as I said earlier I am genuinely happy for those who got in at the right time and have made money from it but I just don't see 10x gains in 5-10 years. That is my personal opinion and based purely on the fact that technology is moving so quickly that this could be redundant by then due to something more advanced that has yet to be dreamed up.
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I don't see it either, we're only up 2.5x from the 2018 peak, or 7x since covid, but everything tech related has gone wild since covid, and loads think we're in a bubble. BTC is still not much higher than the 21 peak etc, and if the bubble bursts on other stocks then it will take BTC with it I think. i.e if stocks crash 20-30% (which is more than possible) then I can see BTC doing double that.

Obviously a lot of that gain was more people becoming aware, and people being given free money to punt on things like this, but everyone has heard of it now and there is no more free money coming, quite the opposite I think.

To get to 10x would need an absolutely insane bull run, where people are constantly buying at higher and higher prices, and who is going to be doing that, and why? The guys who made a fortune got in at 1-10k, are they going to be buying at 100k, or will they be selling?
It needs less people selling, but people and companies will have target prices etc.

From here ~70k, I would say if it's gone up 100%/ 1x in 5 years, without any crashes then that would be a great return. Could it do better? Sure, but it could crash too. I aint buying at 70k though, no way.
For me personally I would probably want to be aiming for getting in at the next crash or ~40k and hoping it gets to 100k in 5 years, who knows if I will get that chance, but I won't be that fussed if I don't or if it rockets from 70k and I miss out.
 
Brian Marwood said:
I'm not ignoring that and haven't at any point, I just don't see anything tangible other than guesses that there will be continued growth of 10x in the next 5-10 years.
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The finance industry is all guess work to a degree. Goldman Sachs’s, HSBC etc all have teams buying more everyday. The US IS IN $35 trillion in debt growing more by the day. Biden moronically printed 40% of all the dollars in their circulation. Trump and Harris are both talking of a bitcoin federal reserve as their economy is screwed. They can’t sustain their position in the world without diversifying. A large amount of that debt could be wiped from their BTC reserves with the impending bull run. They can’t manufacture their way out of it as they can’t compete with burgeoning economies. BTC is the only way to to wipe a lot of it with out hitting up China for a loan.,
 
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