Alot of what you right there is highly questionable as death rates have been increasing over the past 10 years in many places including the UK (I cannot say specifically in Sweden), I'd also take your road traffic accidents comments lightly without data behind it. It looks like rona has almost completely displaced the flu which is interesting because you could use those figures to say all manner of opinion.
I take your point regarding the UN projections though it was just a swift Google on my part to find some projected figures. Maybe someone with more time than me can delve into the numbers and give a more accurate answer. That said when I look at life in Sweden compared to ours I know who I'm envious right now
Debating I have no problem with you see.
You posted a table with death rates decreasing though
But yes, the decrease is slowing on your table, no idea about elsewhere, I've not looked.
I didn't look into RTA's or any of that, as I just don't see how deaths could stay higher with movements down by around 30%, it's just common sense, but all of this should come out, later down the line. The way I see it, is it's effectively impossible for deaths to go up, if movements are down, under normal circumstance. If they can't go up, then the chance of them coming down greatly increases, unless there was tons of people with death by DIY. That's been one of my points about the UK, our figures are crap, but they are so badly underestimated it's criminal.
We're on like 60k excess deaths, but the lock down might have saved about 10k deaths (made up number) from people not getting flu or other transmissible diseases, RTA's or whatever. So really with a lock down we should have been a net -10k, but we ended up a +60k, that's a 70k swing and we're putting 40k down as covid, it's bull$hit. At least Sweden's excess deaths are their covid numbers, but I wouldn't expect anything less, good on them for being honest.
The rest of this isn't really aimed at you, just more of a follow on....but I welcome the debate
But for the UK, if we're bad at controlling covid infections (which we are) which leads to 43k dead (revised down number), then hospital treatment for every other problem gets worse, it has to, as it can't get better, unless it's just cutting out the GP/ A&E timewasters etc (but that's probably not a massive impact). Those 70k dead are either covid, covid playing a major part, or have limited others getting treated for other things as the hospitals are rammed. Either way it's Covid, all of it, if you take Covid away, they all go down.
I keep hearing about people saying people have missed cancer appointments and the like, yet they're saying we shouldn't have lock downs, it makes no sense at all. If we don't lock down, the virus gets worse (it has to as it can't get better, it's impossible), that means the nurses either treat the people that can't breathe or they leave the none breathers outside the hospital to die and start booking appointments for other things not quite as imminent, it's not going to happen, in any walk of life the highest immediate risk gets taken care of first, and there's not enough nurses to do both. Yes, some form of cancers are more lethal, but if every cancer sufferer got covid, then their survival rate goes down massively, it as to, as it can't go up. This is where "underlying conditions" comes in. They might have lived 2 years longer if they didn't get covid, and they might have lived another 3 years longer that that if the hospital wasn't full of covid patients which limited their appointment opportunities.
I hear a lot about lock downs being bad for mental health and suicides etc, which it probably is, of course, but there's no worse an impact to most than losing someone. Most I know would rather lose their job or take a pay cut, than a grandparent or parent before their time, but it's a bad, bad choice for those who are skint, so they should have been supported better.
Last edited: