A big week for the cabinet.

[BoroMart]

I am not sure what your argument is then bm? A new variant may come along, that's true, it may be vaccine resistant, that's true, we might not be able to manufacture a new vaccine in time, that's true.

What would you have the world do?

My argument is that until we know more, we stay cautious. This is bad enough already, it could get worse. Lives are still at stake, we haven't beaten this, we've won the first battle with vaccines, at a cost, we haven't yet won the war.

 

[BoroMart]

The current restrictions are silly bm they punish the entertainment business and don't seem to be reducing the infection rate. With 30000 new infections a day what's the point.

The restrictions aren't intended to be punitive, punish is the wrong word. They are not reducing infection rates because the rules are too vague, wishy washy and have no teeth right now. It's poor application by the government and that's not an accident it's a strategy.

 

[BoroMart]

The data “contains information on the deaths of patients who have died in hospitals in England and either tested positive for COVID-19 or where no positive test result was received for COVID-19, but COVID-19 was mentioned on their death certificate.”

When the owld feller carked it about six different things were ‘mentioned’ on the death cert, it’ll be the same for the people in these figures, but even that aside, the numbers are there to see and they’re not rising.

Covid shortens life of those that have other ailments. If losing 6-18 months of life is not relevant to you then sure, complain the figures are skewed, personally having held someone through those days I think ensuring someone has those days with their family is important.

 

[Laughing]

The restrictions aren't intended to be punitive, punish is the wrong word. They are not reducing infection rates because the rules are too vague, wishy washy and have no teeth right now. It's poor application by the government and that's not an accident it's a strategy.

I agree with this largely but hospitality and entertainment industries have been disproportionately affected by the legislation.

To be honest I would rather have seen proper restrictions continue than the ineffective restrictions we have now which are doing no good at all.

We have exponential growth in infections and the only way out of this pandemic for the uk is vaccinations and child herd immunity.

Either vaccinations work or were ****ed quite frankly. Keeping the stupid restrictions we have at the minute is not working, they are ineffective and are in place only so emergency covid powers could be extended.

On another mask thread we have people arguing for continued mask wearing and calling people selfish. Masks aren't working 30000 new infections a day demonstrate that.

Javid has already said restrictions will end on the 19th. That's without a single sage meeting.

 

[Randy]

Its not anti vaccine nonsense. I'm not anti vaccine you must have me confused with someone else. I'll try and be as clear as possible: Cases have risen. On the back of that, allowing for a lag, death have risen. It seems false to say "the link between cases and deaths has been broken" when that isn't what the numbers are telling us. I guess you mean the vaccines are helping keep deaths down? In which case yes. It seems pretty clear they haven't broken the link though.

Scientists have been saying for many weeks now that we cannot completely eradicate covid, much like we will can't get rid of seasonal colds and flus.

As I mentioned before compare now to January, near enough same case rate (remember a case doesn't automatically mean someone is poorly or in hospital) to now. The vaccines are working. Everybody needs to chill out. We are winning.

 

[SmallTown]

Scientists have been saying for many weeks now that we cannot completely eradicate covid, much like we will can't get rid of seasonal colds and flus.

As I mentioned before compare now to January, near enough same case rate (remember a case doesn't automatically mean someone is poorly or in hospital) to now. The vaccines are working. Everybody needs to chill out. We are winning.

I don’t disagree. I’m just pointing out that saying they have broken the link between cases and deaths is a lie. That’s all

 

[BoroMart]

Either vaccinations work or were ****ed quite frankly. Keeping the stupid restrictions we have at the minute is not working, they are ineffective and are in place only so emergency covid powers could be extended.

Like many things in life, it's not as black and white as either vaccinations work or don't. There is an efficacy rate and a length of protection which declines.

I agree the current restrictions don't seem to be working. As was discussed two or three months ago on here and elsewhere, the government opened up too quickly and everyone on my side of the fence stated that numbers would go up....they have. I'm not shocked they have gone up, I'm shocked that people are complaining that restrictions don't work, when they did before and then were loosened.

The restrictions are now so lose that they have minimal protection, they are supposed to exist to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed. My guitar lesson buddy is a doctor at the local hospital and when we first went back to in class lessons, he said everything has really calmed down and the only people who are in hospital with covid were people that had been there a long time....last week he couldn't come to his lesson because "work has gone insane again". He's very worried that the morgues will be full again in a few weeks. As the lag impact of the current numbers he is seeing hits.

 

[BoroMart]

We are winning.

we are holding our skirmish line, we haven't driven it back yet, this is exactly the attitude that prevailed prior to the biggest wave of the spanish flu

 

[Laughing]

Like many things in life, it's not as black and white as either vaccinations work or don't. There is an efficacy rate and a length of protection which declines.

I agree the current restrictions don't seem to be working. As was discussed two or three months ago on here and elsewhere, the government opened up too quickly and everyone on my side of the fence stated that numbers would go up....they have. I'm not shocked they have gone up, I'm shocked that people are complaining that restrictions don't work, when they did before and then were loosened.

The restrictions are now so lose that they have minimal protection, they are supposed to exist to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed. My guitar lesson buddy is a doctor at the local hospital and when we first went back to in class lessons, he said everything has really calmed down and the only people who are in hospital with covid were people that had been there a long time....last week he couldn't come to his lesson because "work has gone insane again". He's very worried that the morgues will be full again in a few weeks. As the lag impact of the current numbers he is seeing hits.

It isn't black or white

 

[Laughing]

It isn't black or white

Damn phone. I meant to say it isn't black and white but that is what we are left with due to mismanagement, unfortunately.

 

[Jonny_Rondos_Disco_pants]

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/07/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-02-July-2021.xlsx

Deaths aren’t rising, and compare this to the rise in cases. Bear in mind those deaths are of people who tested positive in the last 28 days, not necessarily dying from the disease. Deaths from Covid 19 aren’t going up.

Sorry, looked at the day on day compared to last week. Actually slightly down on the full weeks figures but hospitalisations and ventilation beds are going the the wrong way.

 

[Laughing]

Sorry, looked at the day on day compared to last week. Actually slightly down on the full weeks figures but hospitalisations and ventilation beds are going the the wrong way.

If infections rise enough then the small percentage who will get seriously ill could, eventually, lead to overwhelmed hospitals again.

Knowing all the numbers we have, scientist should know where we are heading to a reasonable degree of accuracy, I would expect.

I have no idea, but assume sage do.

 

[BoroMart]

Sorry, looked at the day on day compared to last week. Actually slightly down on the full weeks figures but hospitalisations and ventilation beds are going the the wrong way.

and of course the big death numbers occur when hospital bed capacity is breached, that is the real danger here

 

[Jostler]

I don’t disagree. I’m just pointing out that saying they have broken the link between cases and deaths is a lie. That’s all

Based on what we’re seeing, it looks like it’s been severed but hanging on by a tendon.

Based on .gov dashboard deaths are down by 1.6% WoW (2 deaths in real numbers)

UKHSA data dashboard

Overall summary of the respiratory viruses in circulation within the UK

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

if you look at the same 7day avg for cases in autumn as we are at now, the daily avg for deaths was around 350 ish (using 10th Nov as data point - on the way up before first micro lockdown played a part)

You can counter the argument by saying we’re testing a lot more now. We would in reality, probably hit a similar number of cases as now earlier than that date. However the deaths would still have been much higher than today, probably at least 10x

Edit BM has a point re capacity, at that point mistakes happen, care needed can’t be given as well etc - hopefully we don’t get back to that point.

Edit edit -On the BBC live feed today it said at the Jan peak 1/60 cases lead to death, that is now 1/1000

 

[Archiestephens_elbow]

The UK need to start vaccinating 12+

javid is now playing a natural herd immunity experiment with our children. There are 9000 kids suffering with long covid. Thats 11% of all child cases in the UK. 1 in every 100 child cases are hospitalised.

schools ventilation should be upgraded. Masks in schools should remain for now.

Teachers should be on strike and starmer should join them on the picket lines

 

[the_holgate_roof]

So will Boris be announcing Freedom Day in today’s 5pm press conference then??

 

[Laughing]

I did read today that unions are calling Johnson irresponsible for considering ending the use of masks on the 19th.

It's a biased argument, I am sure, given they are representing their members. It doesn't necessarily make them wrong, of course.

 

[bear66]

I did read today that unions are calling Johnson irresponsible for considering ending the use of masks on the 19th.

It's a biased argument, I am sure, given they are representing their members. It doesn't necessarily make them wrong, of course.

Unite are saying they should remain for the benefits of passengers on public transport.

 

[Randy]

we are holding our skirmish line, we haven't driven it back yet, this is exactly the attitude that prevailed prior to the biggest wave of the spanish flu

The biggest wave of the spanish flu that didn't have a vaccine at all? The vaccines for covid are working.

we are holding our skirmish line, we haven't driven it back yet, this is exactly the attitude that prevailed prior to the biggest wave of the spanish flu

 

[Laughing]

Unite are saying they should remain for the benefits of passengers on public transport.

The article I read was a bit jumbled, the guardian I think, and it mixed up TFL in the mix. I did get the impression it was unions rather than just unite though.