Randy
Well-known member
A week is a long time in politics – and what a week it’s been. The dramatic resignation of Matt Hancock resulted in the return of former chancellor Sajid Javid to Government, sparking an immediate change of tone towards the easing of remaining lockdown measures.
The build-up to the photo-finish Batley and Spen by-election also drove countless headlines. And had Labour not held the seat, having only recently lost Hartlepool, Keir Starmer would be facing a full-on leadership crisis.
During periods of political high drama, our media class becomes even less likely than usual to report and analyse matters of statistical and economic importance properly.
Amid last week’s diet of office canoodling and nasty campaigning, several such matters failed to get the attention they deserved – matters of genuine significance to the future of lockdown Britain.
Last Thursday, an official report from Public Health England confirmed that, despite the rise in coronavirus cases, both hospitalisations and deaths from or with the virus “remain stable”. That’s clear evidence that with 90pc of over-50s now double-jabbed, rising to 98pc among the more vulnerable 70-79 age group, our superb vaccine rollout programme is now working.
This new PHE report also showed cases are highest among those aged 20-29 – at 424 per 100,000 Covid tests. This is no less than 26 times higher than the case incidence, just 16 per 100,000, among the most vulnerable over-80s age group. And the second highest rate is among those aged 10 to 19, at 369 cases per 100,000 tests.
With under-30s highly unlikely to need hospital treatment for Covid, and deaths related to the virus among children and young adults extremely rare, the PHE fine print provides further evidence that the link between Covid cases on the one hand, and hospitalisations and deaths on the other, has been broken. This shows, once again, those precious vaccines are doing what they need to do.
Map of UK's seven-day Covid-19 infection rate, by local authority
As vaccination rates rise and symptoms become milder, the impact of Covid-19 on the health of the UK population as a whole is now “similar to a bad cold”, according to a major new study from King’s College London. Confidence in the jabs is growing, with Covid-related hospitalisations and fatalities almost completely flat despite reports of over 20,000 infections per day. Professor Robert Dingwall, a key vaccine adviser, now says it is “well past time to panic about infection rates” and calls for the Government to stop “publishing them obsessively”.
Data that ministers – and broadcasters – should be shouting from the rooftops relate to herd immunity. A new study from the Office for National Statistics has found almost nine in 10 UK adults now have antibodies against Covid.
A combination of vaccines and natural immunity among those who’ve fought off the virus means 86.6pc of over-16s have protection, according to random ONS blood sampling of tens of thousands of adults. This rises to 95pc among over-60s, almost all of whom are now double-jabbed.
What’s more, this data was from samples collected in early June – since then millions more jabs have further boosted immunity rates. Herd immunity – when a disease can no longer spread because of previous mass exposure – is typically viewed as around 85pc. These figures seem to suggest that threshold has already been reached.
Rollout nation - Liam
Another data series that should also be more widely understood is Covid cases per test conducted. Numerous scary graphs are produced showing similar numbers of Covid infections across the UK as there were back in early January, causing many to believe, after Covid spiked in the spring of 2020, then last winter, that we’re now in the middle of “a third wave”. Yet the UK is now conducting around 1.2m tests a day. During January, the number was less than half that.
At the height of the Covid pandemic during spring last year, the share of tests that were positive peaked at a very scary 30pc.
The second virus spike, in early January, saw around 13pc of all Covid test register a positive result, still serious. Today, that share has collapsed to just 1.7pc – still too high, perhaps, but an incidence of this virus that is in no way comparable to previous situations.
I say “too high, perhaps” because, of course, the overwhelmingly majority of Covid cases now are among children and young adults – to whom this virus is, in the overwhelming majority of cases, utterly harmless.
And I say perhaps, also, because so many of these reported cases are the result of lateral flows tests – which are notoriously prone to false positives.
America’s Food and Drug Administration, one of the world’s leading regulatory bodies, last month publicly declared such tests should be “placed in the trash”. I am astonished this statement wasn’t more widely reported in the UK. Or perhaps I’m not.
Third Wave? - Liam
Throughout this pandemic, I’ve been concerned about the lack of – how shall I put it – numerical acumen around the Cabinet table. Rishi Sunak understands numbers – and is, in my view, our most financially sophisticated Chancellor since Nigel Lawson. Yet his early pleas that we must “learn to live with Covid”, while placing more heed on the economic disaster that lockdown represents, and the knock-on impact of that on loss of life, were not given sufficient weight within Government.
Now Sunak is joined by Javid – who is equally numerate and comfortable analysing statistical and economic trends. Javid also replaces Matt Hancock, the Government’s biggest and most dogmatic lockdown enthusiast.
Javid’s return caused an immediate rhetorical handbrake turn. Covid restrictions in England “must come to an end” on July 19, said the former chancellor, within hours of his return. He views that date as “the end of the line” for lockdown, insisting that we “must learn to live with coronavirus”.
Just one in 125 fatalities are now linked to coronavirus. Almost 14 times as many deaths are caused by pneumonia and flu. It is my belief Sunak and Javid between them, wielding now overwhelming statistical evidence, will finally convince the Prime Minister to see off the doom-monger scientists and lift remaining restrictions later this month.
www.telegraph.co.uk
The build-up to the photo-finish Batley and Spen by-election also drove countless headlines. And had Labour not held the seat, having only recently lost Hartlepool, Keir Starmer would be facing a full-on leadership crisis.
During periods of political high drama, our media class becomes even less likely than usual to report and analyse matters of statistical and economic importance properly.
Amid last week’s diet of office canoodling and nasty campaigning, several such matters failed to get the attention they deserved – matters of genuine significance to the future of lockdown Britain.
Last Thursday, an official report from Public Health England confirmed that, despite the rise in coronavirus cases, both hospitalisations and deaths from or with the virus “remain stable”. That’s clear evidence that with 90pc of over-50s now double-jabbed, rising to 98pc among the more vulnerable 70-79 age group, our superb vaccine rollout programme is now working.
This new PHE report also showed cases are highest among those aged 20-29 – at 424 per 100,000 Covid tests. This is no less than 26 times higher than the case incidence, just 16 per 100,000, among the most vulnerable over-80s age group. And the second highest rate is among those aged 10 to 19, at 369 cases per 100,000 tests.
With under-30s highly unlikely to need hospital treatment for Covid, and deaths related to the virus among children and young adults extremely rare, the PHE fine print provides further evidence that the link between Covid cases on the one hand, and hospitalisations and deaths on the other, has been broken. This shows, once again, those precious vaccines are doing what they need to do.
Map of UK's seven-day Covid-19 infection rate, by local authority
As vaccination rates rise and symptoms become milder, the impact of Covid-19 on the health of the UK population as a whole is now “similar to a bad cold”, according to a major new study from King’s College London. Confidence in the jabs is growing, with Covid-related hospitalisations and fatalities almost completely flat despite reports of over 20,000 infections per day. Professor Robert Dingwall, a key vaccine adviser, now says it is “well past time to panic about infection rates” and calls for the Government to stop “publishing them obsessively”.
Data that ministers – and broadcasters – should be shouting from the rooftops relate to herd immunity. A new study from the Office for National Statistics has found almost nine in 10 UK adults now have antibodies against Covid.
A combination of vaccines and natural immunity among those who’ve fought off the virus means 86.6pc of over-16s have protection, according to random ONS blood sampling of tens of thousands of adults. This rises to 95pc among over-60s, almost all of whom are now double-jabbed.
What’s more, this data was from samples collected in early June – since then millions more jabs have further boosted immunity rates. Herd immunity – when a disease can no longer spread because of previous mass exposure – is typically viewed as around 85pc. These figures seem to suggest that threshold has already been reached.
Rollout nation - Liam
Another data series that should also be more widely understood is Covid cases per test conducted. Numerous scary graphs are produced showing similar numbers of Covid infections across the UK as there were back in early January, causing many to believe, after Covid spiked in the spring of 2020, then last winter, that we’re now in the middle of “a third wave”. Yet the UK is now conducting around 1.2m tests a day. During January, the number was less than half that.
At the height of the Covid pandemic during spring last year, the share of tests that were positive peaked at a very scary 30pc.
The second virus spike, in early January, saw around 13pc of all Covid test register a positive result, still serious. Today, that share has collapsed to just 1.7pc – still too high, perhaps, but an incidence of this virus that is in no way comparable to previous situations.
I say “too high, perhaps” because, of course, the overwhelmingly majority of Covid cases now are among children and young adults – to whom this virus is, in the overwhelming majority of cases, utterly harmless.
And I say perhaps, also, because so many of these reported cases are the result of lateral flows tests – which are notoriously prone to false positives.
America’s Food and Drug Administration, one of the world’s leading regulatory bodies, last month publicly declared such tests should be “placed in the trash”. I am astonished this statement wasn’t more widely reported in the UK. Or perhaps I’m not.
Third Wave? - Liam
Throughout this pandemic, I’ve been concerned about the lack of – how shall I put it – numerical acumen around the Cabinet table. Rishi Sunak understands numbers – and is, in my view, our most financially sophisticated Chancellor since Nigel Lawson. Yet his early pleas that we must “learn to live with Covid”, while placing more heed on the economic disaster that lockdown represents, and the knock-on impact of that on loss of life, were not given sufficient weight within Government.
Now Sunak is joined by Javid – who is equally numerate and comfortable analysing statistical and economic trends. Javid also replaces Matt Hancock, the Government’s biggest and most dogmatic lockdown enthusiast.
Javid’s return caused an immediate rhetorical handbrake turn. Covid restrictions in England “must come to an end” on July 19, said the former chancellor, within hours of his return. He views that date as “the end of the line” for lockdown, insisting that we “must learn to live with coronavirus”.
Just one in 125 fatalities are now linked to coronavirus. Almost 14 times as many deaths are caused by pneumonia and flu. It is my belief Sunak and Javid between them, wielding now overwhelming statistical evidence, will finally convince the Prime Minister to see off the doom-monger scientists and lift remaining restrictions later this month.
Javid and Sunak will defeat the lockdown doom-mongers
Faced with overwhelming statistical evidence, this numerate duo will convince the Prime Minister to lift remaining restrictions
www.telegraph.co.uk
