A big week for the cabinet.

Deaths are not the sole metric. Though they are important as are hospitalisations. What we don't want is to create a breeding ground for new variants that may prove more fatal, infectious or debilitating also we need to make sure that we can improve treatment for people with post-viral complications (long COVID).
 
Muttley said:
Deaths are not the sole metric. Though they are important as are hospitalisations. What we don't want is to create a breeding ground for new variants that may prove more fatal, infectious or debilitating also we need to make sure that we can improve treatment for people with post-viral complications (long COVID).
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400,000 people in the UK have suffered from long covid for over a year now. That's another worrying metric. Hopefully some anti-viral will come along that helps with long covid.
 
Ingleby_Flash said:

Deaths aren’t rising, and compare this to the rise in cases. Bear in mind those deaths are of people who tested positive in the last 28 days, not necessarily dying from the disease. Deaths from Covid 19 aren’t going up.
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Why are people only fixating on death within 28 days?

We have deaths beyond 28 and long covid and any other impacts to consider such as mutation opportunity
 
What we probably want to do is dial down the rhetoric and fear.

Even allowing for the very unlikely fact that there are about 20 deaths a day with covid as the primary cause, that is a very small number and isn't even a flu season.

The worry about variants is a real one but what are the chances of a variant that is resistant to the current vaccine coming along? I have no idea 1%, 10%. If you know that and it's r rate you could assess whether we should continue with restrictions. But we don't nor can we.

Should we live in fear of a variant for the rest of the year, 2 years,until the whole world is vaccinated?

At the moment living in fear of covid makes less sense than living in fear of cancer or heart disease or old age.
 
Laughing said:
The worry about variants is a real one but what are the chances of a variant that is resistant to the current vaccine coming along? I have no idea 1%, 10%
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Laughing said:
Should we live in fear of a variant for the rest of the year, 2 years,until the whole world is vaccinated?
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If there is risk and we don't have knowledge of the impact or likelihood of the risk, the appropriate action is to learn more not to pretend there is no risk.
 
Laughing said:
What we probably want to do is dial down the rhetoric and fear.

Even allowing for the very unlikely fact that there are about 20 deaths a day with covid as the primary cause, that is a very small number and isn't even a flu season.

The worry about variants is a real one but what are the chances of a variant that is resistant to the current vaccine coming along? I have no idea 1%, 10%. If you know that and it's r rate you could assess whether we should continue with restrictions. But we don't nor can we.

Should we live in fear of a variant for the rest of the year, 2 years,until the whole world is vaccinated?

At the moment living in fear of covid makes less sense than living in fear of cancer or heart disease or old age.
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It's about the same as an average flu season (according to Spigelhalter and Whitty who quoted 7k and 8k respectively). And that's with measures for social distancing still in place. The USA have managed to get to a place where 99.2% of deaths are unvaccinated. Europe will presumable follow with primarily the Pfizer vaccine. Hopefully the Autumn UK booster manages to get us there as well.
 
BoroMart said:
If there is risk and we don't have knowledge of the impact or likelihood of the risk, the appropriate action is to learn more not to pretend there is no risk.
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You have a plan I assume bm? Go on share with us. How do we ease restrictions and when?

We all live in a world where people die. You have thousands of times more chance of dying of heart disease than covid at the moment. You have much more chance of dying of alzhiemers at the moment.

What would you do bm?
 
bear66 said:
It's about the same as an average flu season (according to Spigelhalter and Whitty who quoted 7k and 8k respectively). And that's with measures for social distancing still in place.
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Doesn't that mean it will be way higher if we return to 'normal' on the 19th? Plus this is on top of standard flus
 
Laughing said:
You have a plan I assume bm? Go on share with us. How do we ease restrictions and when?

We all live in a world where people die. You have thousands of times more chance of dying of heart disease than covid at the moment. You have much more chance of dying of alzhiemers at the moment.

What would you do bm?
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I'm not the expert, I would ask the scientists. At my age I don't have more chance of dying of alzheimers, nor do my kids
 
BoroMart said:
that isn't how it works, the cause of death is agreed by the physician, if someone had a car crash and had covid it would be registered as a car crash.
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Not quite, ok car crash was maybe extreme,

The data “contains information on the deaths of patients who have died in hospitals in England and either tested positive for COVID-19 or where no positive test result was received for COVID-19, but COVID-19 was mentioned on their death certificate.”

When the owld feller carked it about six different things were ‘mentioned’ on the death cert, it’ll be the same for the people in these figures, but even that aside, the numbers are there to see and they’re not rising.
 
bear66 said:
It's about the same as an average flu season (according to Spigelhalter and Whitty who quoted 7k and 8k respectively). And that's with measures for social distancing still in place. The USA have managed to get to a place where 99.2% of deaths are unvaccinated. Europe will presumable follow with primarily the Pfizer vaccine. Hopefully the Autumn UK booster manages to get us there as well.
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On the subject of flu bear you can pick a year and pick an estimate but I take your point.

Would you like to see a continuation of restrictions?

My main gripe with restrictions now is they seem to be having zero effect so why continue with them. Infection rates are very high, albeit with a lot of testing. Restrictions seem ineffective and are doing punitive damage to a handful of industries.
 
Laughing said:
My main gripe with restrictions now is they seem to be having zero effect so why continue with them. Infection rates are very high, albeit with a lot of testing. Restrictions seem ineffective and are doing punitive damage to a handful of industries.
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they worked earlier on, before the government started to loosen everything and create less certainty about what we should be doing. The people have to take some blame too, lots of people seem to think this is over....that's what they thought with the spanish flu then the next wave was the most lethal
 
Laughing said:
On the subject of flu bear you can pick a year and pick an estimate but I take your point.

Would you like to see a continuation of restrictions?

My main gripe with restrictions now is they seem to be having zero effect so why continue with them. Infection rates are very high, albeit with a lot of testing. Restrictions seem ineffective and are doing punitive damage to a handful of industries.
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If someone actually produced the cost / benefits we would know. We see the costs from Sage but the government aren't being open on how they weigh that cost against benefits.
 
BoroMart said:
I'm not the expert, I would ask the scientists. At my age I don't have more chance of dying of alzheimers, nor do my kids
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I am not sure what your argument is then bm? A new variant may come along, that's true, it may be vaccine resistant, that's true, we might not be able to manufacture a new vaccine in time, that's true.

What would you have the world do?
 
BoroMart said:
they worked earlier on, before the government started to loosen everything and create less certainty about what we should be doing. The people have to take some blame too, lots of people seem to think this is over....that's what they thought with the spanish flu then the next wave was the most lethal
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The current restrictions are silly bm they punish the entertainment business and don't seem to be reducing the infection rate. With 30000 new infections a day what's the point.
 
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