£30m loss for Boro

Andy_W said:
But there's a few options of how to treat it:
1: Spend big to try and guarantee to stay up, but could we afford to do that after recent losses? You would have to assume a lot of the money in would go on debt.
Click to expand...
This is the option to pursue IMHO.
There is no guarantee, but if you spend on quality that you can resell to release you from amortisation and contract liabilities, you can still be left with a good squad and scope to invest in a couple or more promotion bids using PP's.
But it is about getting that big recruitment right.
Limited loans, again of high quality only. Trust some of the squad who got you up will be good enough to keep you up too; they will grow.
Quality over quantity. You don't actually play that many matches in the PL.
Again IMHO.

I don't think Gibson would look to pay down loans to himself if he could get the Club back established in PL.
I don't think he will make the same mistakes he made in 2016-20.
 
Surely the sensible thing to do if promoted is buy / loan a few experienced PL heads and see if we can stay up. If we don't no big issue - we have got millions for the one season and surely we get parachute payments?

Then we go again.

If we were lucky to stay up then in S2 spend a few quid to try and cement that position.

The biggest problem we would have is fan expectation. The last thing we need if Wilder being hounded out if we got relegated. Messaging from the club would be key. if we did go straight back down Wilder would be the man to try and get us back up.
 
MolteniArcore said:
Surely the sensible thing to do if promoted is buy / loan a few experienced PL heads and see if we can stay up. If we don't no big issue - we have got millions for the one season and surely we get parachute payments?

Then we go again.

If we were lucky to stay up then in S2 spend a few quid to try and cement that position.

The biggest problem we would have is fan expectation. The last thing we need if Wilder being hounded out if we got relegated. Messaging from the club would be key. if we did go straight back down Wilder would be the man to try and get us back up.
Click to expand...
Absolutely the wrong approach IMHO. This was the rubbish we did last time where we were lowest spenders, especially in the vital summer window.
Staying up more than one season is important to get PP for 3 seasons not 2.

I agree with fans expectations. Survival would be everything for 2 seasons.
 
indeedido said:
Absolutely the wrong approach IMHO. This was the rubbish we did last time where we were lowest spenders, especially in the vital summer window.
Staying up more than one season is important to get PP for 3 seasons not 2.

I agree with fans expectations. Survival would be everything for 2 seasons.
Click to expand...

Wasn't that Monk spending £50m to try to get us back up that was the problem? We've been paying that mess off ever since.

The Premier League isn't everything - one season up would sure us up financially for many more seasons to come if done right.
 
Good young player investment is the approach we should take if we get up.

The current value in our squad is largely from a handful of players. Tavernier - signed as a youth player, Fry - signed as a youth player, Jones - signed from non-league, Spence - a Fulham youth reject, and McNair a 5m purchase off a rookie player who only had 32 league starts when we signed him.

For 5mill and some tracksuits we have accumulated 75m+ worth of talent. We signed them young, developed them and now have saleable assets.

IF we go up, we must take that same route for our core recruitment. We should sign a couple of experienced heads to lead the dressing room, but we should keep to our core strategy, young quality players with room to grow in value. Of course we can reduce our risk by upping our budget on those young players and get even more highly thought of players. Players like Harry Soutter, Gibbs-White, Brereton-Diaz, Jadon Bogle, Gyokeres, and equivelent players in other markets -- By prem budgets these would be very cheap signings, 5-10m and all young enough to improve. Indeed any of these players could triple in value with a decent prem season.
 
BoroMart said:
Good young player investment is the approach we should take if we get up.

The current value in our squad is largely from a handful of players. Tavernier - signed as a youth player, Fry - signed as a youth player, Jones - signed from non-league, Spence - a Fulham youth reject, and McNair a 5m purchase off a rookie player who only had 32 league starts when we signed him.

For 5mill and some tracksuits we have accumulated 75m+ worth of talent. We signed them young, developed them and now have saleable assets.

IF we go up, we must take that same route for our core recruitment. We should sign a couple of experienced heads to lead the dressing room, but we should keep to our core strategy, young quality players with room to grow in value. Of course we can reduce our risk by upping our budget on those young players and get even more highly thought of players. Players like Harry Soutter, Gibbs-White, Brereton-Diaz, Jadon Bogle, Gyokeres, and equivelent players in other markets -- By prem budgets these would be very cheap signings, 5-10m and all young enough to improve. Indeed any of these players could triple in value with a decent prem season.
Click to expand...
Brereton-Diaz for £5-£10m?

20 goals already this season & now an International - he'd be a lot more than that as would several others listed especially if other clubs see us banking £20m for spence.
 
DCI_Gene_Hunt said:
Brereton-Diaz for £5-£10m?

20 goals already this season & now an International - he'd be a lot more than that as would several others listed especially if other clubs see us banking £20m for spence.
Click to expand...
I suppose he needs to get fit first from his ruptured achilles and see if he starts scoring again - or whether it was a flash in the pan.
 
DCI_Gene_Hunt said:
20 goals already this season & now an International - he'd be a lot more than that as would several others listed especially if other clubs see us banking £20m for spence.
Click to expand...
20 this season, 7 last season , 1 in each of the years before that.

He's a talent, but he isn't proven by any stretch. He had a very hot patch from end Sept to Dec where he got 16 goals in 16 games. He hasn't scored in about 10 appearances since then, but he's had injuries, and he only scored 4 in 10 at the start of the season.

I liked him as a player before this golden patch though, I like his work rate, his power, and willingness to shoot. I wanted him when he was at Forest. His goalscoring this season might be way above his normal rate, but he's a good player nonetheless. I think his contract has a 1 year extension clause? If so then Blackburn will likely sell in the summer and his value will be reduced because a) they aren't in a good position financially, and b) the remaining contract pressure. Yeah, he'll probably be above 10m, but I wouldn't think above 15m. The other players on that list will be below 10m including Gyokeres.
 
BoroMart said:
20 this season, 7 last season , 1 in each of the years before that.

He's a talent, but he isn't proven by any stretch. He had a very hot patch from end Sept to Dec where he got 16 goals in 16 games. He hasn't scored in about 10 appearances since then, but he's had injuries, and he only scored 4 in 10 at the start of the season.

I liked him as a player before this golden patch though, I like his work rate, his power, and willingness to shoot. I wanted him when he was at Forest. His goalscoring this season might be way above his normal rate, but he's a good player nonetheless. I think his contract has a 1 year extension clause? If so then Blackburn will likely sell in the summer and his value will be reduced because a) they aren't in a good position financially, and b) the remaining contract pressure. Yeah, he'll probably be above 10m, but I wouldn't think above 15m. The other players on that list will be below 10m including Gyokeres.
Click to expand...
I would have Gibbs-White in a heartbeat, out of those you've listed I think he's likely to really crack on.
 
MolteniArcore said:
Wasn't that Monk spending £50m to try to get us back up that was the problem? We've been paying that mess off ever since.

The Premier League isn't everything - one season up would sure us up financially for many more seasons to come if done right.
Click to expand...
1. Monk spent more money trying to go back up than we spent when we went up (and spent what we did then so badly). 2016-17 was worse off the pitch than on it.
2. Financially the PL is everything. Gibson would not have to fund in the PL, he has to fund at the very least £10m every season outside it.
3. One season in the PL gets 2 seasons of PP, Longer gets 3. One season up would not set us up for many more seasons.
 
BoroMart said:
Good young player investment is the approach we should take if we get up.

The current value in our squad is largely from a handful of players. Tavernier - signed as a youth player, Fry - signed as a youth player, Jones - signed from non-league, Spence - a Fulham youth reject, and McNair a 5m purchase off a rookie player who only had 32 league starts when we signed him.

For 5mill and some tracksuits we have accumulated 75m+ worth of talent. We signed them young, developed them and now have saleable assets.

IF we go up, we must take that same route for our core recruitment. We should sign a couple of experienced heads to lead the dressing room, but we should keep to our core strategy, young quality players with room to grow in value. Of course we can reduce our risk by upping our budget on those young players and get even more highly thought of players. Players like Harry Soutter, Gibbs-White, Brereton-Diaz, Jadon Bogle, Gyokeres, and equivelent players in other markets -- By prem budgets these would be very cheap signings, 5-10m and all young enough to improve. Indeed any of these players could triple in value with a decent prem season.
Click to expand...
I agree with this, especially the point about upping our budget - that is my point. Buy better quality younger players who all have huge scope to improve and add value.
 
indeedido said:
1. Monk spent more money trying to go back up than we spent when we went up (and spent what we did then so badly). 2016-17 was worse off the pitch than on it.
2. Financially the PL is everything. Gibson would not have to fund in the PL, he has to fund at the very least £10m every season outside it.
3. One season in the PL gets 2 seasons of PP, Longer gets 3. One season up would not set us up for many more seasons.
Click to expand...
One season up probably wouldn't clear much in the way of debt, but, it would a) likely give us more/better playing assets and b) FFP advantages for 2 years that give us an excellent chance to go back up again.

We might have to go up and come down again before we are ready on and off the field to stay up. I'm comfortable with that. Of course we know that a relegation on Wilders CV from the prem would mean some people would want him sacked. Robson never ever recovered with some people, Southgate also is still vilified as a manager by some Boro fans for relegation.

We have to build something here, it's a root and branch transformation of the club. We have to really start to invest in the academy getting getting higher class kids into it, we have to pump money into the U23s by getting a lot better in that team. This is what will secure is going forward because we will never be a able to compete for the finished article player, other than the odd one or two. We really need that scouting system to come good and expand into europe too. De roon is probably the last player we signed from a European club that wasn't a dud and hadn't previously played in England. There's a whole continent full of players that we are barely touching right now
 
Last edited:
BoroMart said:
One season up probably wouldn't clear much in the way of debt, but, it would a) likely give us more/better playing assets and b) FFP advantages for 2 years that give us an excellent chance to go back up again.

We might have to go up and come down again before we are ready on and off the field to stay up. I'm comfortable with that. Of course we know that a relegation on Wilders CV from the prem would mean some people would want him sacked. Robson never ever recovered with some people, Southgate also is still vilified as a manager by some Boro fans for relegation.

We have to build something here, it's a root and branch transformation of the club. We have to really start to invest in the academy getting getting higher class kids into it, we have to pump money into the U23s by getting a lot better in that team. This is what will secure is going forward because we will never be a able to compete for the finished article player, other than the odd one or two. We really need that scouting system to come good and expand into europe too. De roon is probably the last player we signed from a European club that wasn't a dud and hadn't previously played in England. There's a whole continent full of players that we are barely touching right now
Click to expand...
Going up and then coming straight back down has many risks - one of course is how much patience would we all have - how many managers actually survive the process? You instantly see a massive increase in wage levels that eats up much of the extra money - how do you scale that back again - so soon?
Looking at the clubs likely to be relegated and the signs are not good at all for Norwich. This time they might have to sell a lot more players and it could be they are in for a very rocky ride indeed. That is the ultimate danger of a yo-yo club - you can't keep coming back forever.
 
indeedido said:
The Brizzleview bit is good and a nice spreadsheet representation, but it does miss Revaluation of Fixed Assets which MFC have done twice in recent years. The Accounts to June 2021 show £5.4m for example that further offsets the FFP loss.
They have given more credit to the Academy and Community than I allowed and they may well be right - hope so.
The bottom line is MFC have zero exposure to FFP in 3 years to June 2021.

Given turnover will be significantly up in year to 2022, amortisation will be hugely down and I anticipate wages no higher, then there will be no exposure at all in the 3 year cycle to June 2022. This also without Steve having to inject any equity, or even pledge any further in his Undertakings.
He will also have squad with some real value (our high value players will have zero book value so all profit if sold); not the detritus that Monk and pulis assembled and left hanging round our necks.

In truth, Gibson could make a push next season in terms of signings. It would mean he would almost certainly make yet another real financial loss, but he would have miniscule FFP exposure and a valuable squad to dispose if he really had to.
I really do think the proceeds of a Spence sale would all go on signings.
£20m reinvested in the squad on new players on 4 year contracts would see a reasonable amortisation hit of an additional £5m to the 2022-23 P&L.
If we don't go up this season - and we really could do - then we are set up very well for next season: No contracted rubbish, lots of high value players, no FFP exposure, good manager, owner with his judgement and mojo well and truly back.
Click to expand...
Really interesting informative post Indeedio, thanks. Out of interest, who do you feel are our high value players who have zero book value apart from Tav?
 
Kowalski said:
Really interesting informative post Indeedio, thanks. Out of interest, who do you feel are our high value players who have zero book value apart from Tav?
Click to expand...
Fry, Spence, Jones, McNair, Tavernier, all worth multi millions yet nothing on the books and consequently no amortisation hitting P&L.
Dijksteel (low book value) Bola (low book value) will also have value well ahead of book value.
Crooks has market value way ahead of book value, as does Watmore who has none.

Lots of loan players and the older players have no book value, or market value and wage can be covered.
 
I think If we went up we would have something similar to what Sheffield united just did, hopefully Chris learnt a few lessons from it.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top