£30m loss for Boro

[BoroMart]

There's a well established FFP thread on Bristol City's forum that is pretty interesting for anyone financially-minded.
Brizzle view
They have commented on our results saying 'no issue' with regards to our latest accounts

The Championship really is a basket case but at least Gibbo's action with Derby and the Covid crisis might get Clubs to be a bit more sensible?
At least we are now on an upwards trajectory with a lower wage bill and a few decent FA Cup pay days under our belt.
We've also got the Djed Spence fortune incoming (hopefully).

UTB

I really hope he gets to the end of the season without a serious injury or tail off in form.....we desperately need that cash

 

[Andy_W]

Lost 24m in YE 21, which was largely effected by Covid, but lost more (30m) in YE 20 which was less effected by Covid.

That's some going, to be fair.

Wage bill down to 27m from 31m and was up to 48m in YE 2018, and 64m in YE 2017 (in the prem).

Lost about 4m in gate receipts over YE 20, and even that was partially effected by Covid.

 

[Otto42]

But how long before you were back in the Championship using that model?

It's almost impossible for anyone outside of the big 5 or 6 to guarantee EPL survival.....Everton are showing that this season. If we can go up and stay up for two or three seasons and bounce back with parachute payments intact then our model works, might even work if Gibson stopped funding?

 

[Derby_Red]

they'll be having an absolute meltdown in the midlands about this

Correct.

 

[Andy_W]

It's almost impossible for anyone outside of the big 5 or 6 to guarantee EPL survival.....Everton are showing that this season. If we can go up and stay up for two or three seasons and bounce back with parachute payments intact then our model works, might even work if Gibson stopped funding?

Something needs to change, players wages and transfer fees are too high, clubs shouldn't have to risk going broke, or selling out to Russia or Saudi, to be able to compete, and bigger clubs should not be able to do the same to widen the gap. It's like a drug addiction, absolute self destruction aiming for a short term high, which ultimately is unsustainable and will likely end in disaster.

 

[MVBoro]

Gibbo must be close to retirement age although he still looks relatively youthful! I think he'll back us as long as his health allows. I wonder if he will keep it in the family. His daughter seems to be at every match. I wonder if she will take over, when he eventually calls it a day. Hopefully a while away....

 

[S7DiscoDown]

Gibbo must be close to retirement age although he still looks relatively youthful! I think he'll back us as long as his health allows. I wonder if he will keep it in the family. His daughter seems to be at every match. I wonder if she will take over, when he eventually calls it a day. Hopefully a while away....

It wouldn't suprise me if she does take over. Although not sure why she currently does? I'm guessing works on the family business.

That or she's sat thinking 'stop sp*nking away my inheritance Dad'

 

[Badonde]

Lost 24m in YE 21, which was largely effected by Covid, but lost more (30m) in YE 20 which was less effected by Covid.

That's some going, to be fair.

Wage bill down to 27m from 31m and was up to 48m in YE 2018, and 64m in YE 2017 (in the prem).

Lost about 4m in gate receipts over YE 20, and even that was partially effected by Covid.

The last few years have been difficult for Boro.
But at least we played a 'fair' game and took our medicine (austerity/wage cuts).
Don't get me wrong the wages we pay are still silly money but it looks like the brakes were applied before we went over the edge.
Fortunately our spend was already down before Covid came out of the blue.

I heard that we didn't have relegation clauses in player contracts last time we were in the PL?
Sure I read this in a newspaper article at the time - can anyone back this up?
I understand that only the players and the Club will know the truth.
Just hope that things like this are now taken care of with the new executive structure?

 

[indeedido]

There's a well established FFP thread on Bristol City's forum that is pretty interesting for anyone financially-minded.
Brizzle view
They have commented on our results saying 'no issue' with regards to our latest accounts

The Championship really is a basket case but at least Gibbo's action with Derby and the Covid crisis might get Clubs to be a bit more sensible?
At least we are now on an upwards trajectory with a lower wage bill and a few decent FA Cup pay days under our belt.
We've also got the Djed Spence fortune incoming (hopefully).

UTB

The Brizzleview bit is good and a nice spreadsheet representation, but it does miss Revaluation of Fixed Assets which MFC have done twice in recent years. The Accounts to June 2021 show £5.4m for example that further offsets the FFP loss.
They have given more credit to the Academy and Community than I allowed and they may well be right - hope so.
The bottom line is MFC have zero exposure to FFP in 3 years to June 2021.

Given turnover will be significantly up in year to 2022, amortisation will be hugely down and I anticipate wages no higher, then there will be no exposure at all in the 3 year cycle to June 2022. This also without Steve having to inject any equity, or even pledge any further in his Undertakings.
He will also have squad with some real value (our high value players will have zero book value so all profit if sold); not the detritus that Monk and pulis assembled and left hanging round our necks.

In truth, Gibson could make a push next season in terms of signings. It would mean he would almost certainly make yet another real financial loss, but he would have miniscule FFP exposure and a valuable squad to dispose if he really had to.
I really do think the proceeds of a Spence sale would all go on signings.
£20m reinvested in the squad on new players on 4 year contracts would see a reasonable amortisation hit of an additional £5m to the 2022-23 P&L.
If we don't go up this season - and we really could do - then we are set up very well for next season: No contracted rubbish, lots of high value players, no FFP exposure, good manager, owner with his judgement and mojo well and truly back.

 

[Andy_W]

The Brizzleview bit is good and a nice spreadsheet representation, but it does miss Revaluation of Fixed Assets which MFC have done twice in recent years. The Accounts to June 2021 show £5.4m for example that further offsets the FFP loss.
They have given more credit to the Academy and Community than I allowed and they may well be right - hope so.
The bottom line is MFC have zero exposure to FFP in 3 years to June 2021.

Given turnover will be significantly up in year to 2022, amortisation will be hugely down and I anticipate wages no higher, then there will be no exposure at all in the 3 year cycle to June 2022. This also without Steve having to inject any equity, or even pledge any further in his Undertakings.
He will also have squad with some real value (our high value players will have zero book value so all profit if sold); not the detritus that Monk and pulis assembled and left hanging round our necks.

In truth, Gibson could make a push next season in terms of signings. It would mean he would almost certainly make yet another real financial loss, but he would have miniscule FFP exposure and a valuable squad to dispose if he really had to.
I really do think the proceeds of a Spence sale would all go on signings.
£20m reinvested in the squad on new players on 4 year contracts would see a reasonable amortisation hit of an additional £5m to the 2022-23 P&L.
If we don't go up this season - and we really could do - then we are set up very well for next season: No contracted rubbish, lots of high value players, no FFP exposure, good manager, owner with his judgement and mojo well and truly back.

Good work

 

[Maccarone]

The Brizzleview bit is good and a nice spreadsheet representation, but it does miss Revaluation of Fixed Assets which MFC have done twice in recent years. The Accounts to June 2021 show £5.4m for example that further offsets the FFP loss.
They have given more credit to the Academy and Community than I allowed and they may well be right - hope so.
The bottom line is MFC have zero exposure to FFP in 3 years to June 2021.

Given turnover will be significantly up in year to 2022, amortisation will be hugely down and I anticipate wages no higher, then there will be no exposure at all in the 3 year cycle to June 2022. This also without Steve having to inject any equity, or even pledge any further in his Undertakings.
He will also have squad with some real value (our high value players will have zero book value so all profit if sold); not the detritus that Monk and pulis assembled and left hanging round our necks.

In truth, Gibson could make a push next season in terms of signings. It would mean he would almost certainly make yet another real financial loss, but he would have miniscule FFP exposure and a valuable squad to dispose if he really had to.
I really do think the proceeds of a Spence sale would all go on signings.
£20m reinvested in the squad on new players on 4 year contracts would see a reasonable amortisation hit of an additional £5m to the 2022-23 P&L.
If we don't go up this season - and we really could do - then we are set up very well for next season: No contracted rubbish, lots of high value players, no FFP exposure, good manager, owner with his judgement and mojo well and truly back.

Sounds very encouraging, I'm hoping we go up this year, we seriously could.
I keep feeling the big cup games will help us deal better the the pressures of the remaining games.

 

[Andy_W]

Sounds very encouraging, I'm hoping we go up this year, we seriously could.
I keep feeling the big cup games will help us deal better the the pressures of the remaining games.

I hate to say it but I think another year in the Champo would do us a lot more good, and get us much better prepared for it. Unless we went up, took the money, didn't buy anyone, and accepted we would likely come back down, then make a better push if we were back in the Champo in 23-24.

Going up, and not having the foundations or funds to have a proper go at staying up could end up in us just throwing money away again, like we did last time, and we know how long it took to recover from that.

I think the Champo will be weaker next year, especially now Newcastle are staying up and won't be in the Champo with endless funds, assuming it's three smaller sized clubs coming down, in Norwich, Burnley and Watford. Wouldn't fancy finishing above Everton though, and Leeds and above are all safe I think.

 

[BoroMart]

I hate to say it but I think another year in the Champo would do us a lot more good, and get us much better prepared for it. Unless we went up, took the money, didn't buy anyone, and accepted we would likely come back down, then make a better push if we were back in the Champo in 23-24.

Going up, and not having the foundations or funds to have a proper go at staying up could end up in us just throwing money away again, like we did last time, and we know how long it took to recover from that.

I'm Sheff Utd would have said that, then finished 7th

 

[indeedido]

I hate to say it but I think another year in the Champo would do us a lot more good, and get us much better prepared for it. Unless we went up, took the money, didn't buy anyone, and accepted we would likely come back down, then make a better push if we were back in the Champo in 23-24.

Going up, and not having the foundations or funds to have a proper go at staying up could end up in us just throwing money away again, like we did last time, and we know how long it took to recover from that.

I have to say I totally disagree.
The Club has to go up as soon as possible from a financial perspective.
The Club did not spend enough and what they did spend was very poorly spent last time we went up.
Sign good players you can sell if relegated improves the chances of staying up and minimises any exposure of you go down.

What took us time to recover from was the Monk and pulis spending in the Championship on utter dross on long contracts with no resale value.
We have literally just ended that period and are in a much better position to go again.
It will always be about how good your recruitment is and getting value for whatever you invest.

 

[Badonde]

Latest cut and paste from Brizzle Forum. They have a regular poster called Mr Popodopolous who certainly seems to know his stuff.
All sounds positive
(and their board is extremely critical about any shenanigans......looks like Gibbo is their poster boy - as he should be.

Not done a table for Middlesbrough yet but yeah, agreed- no issue to 2021, I also think unlikely they will have an issue to 2022- Assombalonga dropping off unless Impaired at some point in the last 3 years is £3.7-3.8m in amortisation savings on him alone. Fletcher £6.5m/4...also went- again if no Impairment, this reduces amortisation by a further £1.6m or so. Varied other departures too, range of cost savings and profit on disposal- yes some expensive sounding loanees in too. Surely Assombalonga and Fletcher- especially the former- were major earners too? That helps.

I think more likely is that they MIGHT have an issue to 2022/23 if they don't win the playoffs (Fulham and Bournemouth top two IMO barring any deductions), but surely if so they will sell players if required and show a bit of restraint on the other side of it- Gibson has done this before and they have a range of saleable assets. Wilder isn't a manager who needs a huge budget either. Spence widely rated at £10-15m joined on a free, so barring some sort of compensation based sell on clause to Fulham it's £10-15m to offset losses if required from him alone.

They are rare fwiw, but not unheard of- Man City got a % of the Sancho fee last summer.

Might also add, would be astonished if Gibson steered Middlesbrough onto the FFP rocks given his anger in 2019 and the impact it has had- plus the fact he was pursuing Derby as recently as 6 weeks to two months ago until the accord with Mel Morris.

 

[TeaCider]

Lost 24m in YE 21, which was largely effected by Covid, but lost more (30m) in YE 20 which was less effected by Covid.

That's some going, to be fair.

I'd say 2020 was more impacted by Covid.

There were more home matches behind closed doors in 2020 than in 2021.

16 games behind closed doors in 2020.

13 matches behind closed doors in 2021.

 

[Andy_W]

I'm Sheff Utd would have said that, then finished 7th

Aye, there's a risk to it of course, but they're not in the situation we were for the last few years, and are probably favourites to go up other than the top two.

I have to say I totally disagree.
The Club has to go up as soon as possible from a financial perspective.
The Club did not spend enough and what they did spend was very poorly spent last time we went up.
Sign good players you can sell if relegated improves the chances of staying up and minimises any exposure of you go down.

What took us time to recover from was the Monk and pulis spending in the Championship on utter dross on long contracts with no resale value.
We have literally just ended that period and are in a much better position to go again.
It will always be about how good your recruitment is and getting value for whatever you invest.

Fair enough, I totally get it.

But there's a few options of how to treat it:
1: Spend big to try and guarantee to stay up, but could we afford to do that after recent losses? You would have to assume a lot of the money in would go on debt.
2: Going up and not spending a penny, which would be practically guaranteed relegation, which wouldn't be much fun either, albeit better for the bank balance.
3: Loads of loans (hard to get these to knit cohesively, knowing they're unlikely to be there next year, then even if they do knit, it's still hard next year, as different players again)
4: The option everyone picks. Spend well, don't have any duds, and stay up. This is the hardest option, and not necessarily the least risk financially.

Which option would you want to try?

Pulis had a job of cutting down expenditure too, after we gave the keys to Monk who blew it.

Recruitment is key, but you can't put all your eggs in one basket, hoping that value signings will all pay off, as even value signings are still a fair amount of expenditure, lead to contracts of big wages etc. No player in their right mind would sign a relegation wage reduction clause, not if they had other options from teams more likely to stay up. For example, you can take 50m of risk with a 100m balance, but can only take 25m of risk with a 50m balance etc. The 50m spend has a higher chance of survival, but you need the 100m to unlock it, and I doubt we would have that next year if we went up.

I'd love us to be up and competing, but you need to think where we would be in 2,3,4 years, depending on which road we chose, or ended up on.

 

[Andy_W]

I'd say 2020 was more impacted by Covid.

There were more home matches behind closed doors in 2020 than in 2021.

16 games behind closed doors in 2020.

13 matches behind closed doors in 2021.

I'm talking YE from an accounts perspective, the YE 20, ended in June 20 I think.

Didn't we lock down in late March/ April 20? Must have only been 4/5 home games left then, and the rest on 20/21 season, for YE 21?

 

[TeaCider]

I'm talking YE from an accounts perspective, the YE 20, ended in June 20 I think.

Didn't we lock down in late March/ April 20? Must have only been 4/5 home games left then, and the rest on 20/21 season, for YE 21?

Ah fair enough, my mistake, I'd misinterpreted your post.

Yeah, 4 matches behind closed doors in the 2019/20 season.

 

[indeedido]

Latest cut and paste from Brizzle Forum. They have a regular poster called Mr Popodopolous who certainly seems to know his stuff.
All sounds positive
(and their board is extremely critical about any shenanigans......looks like Gibbo is their poster boy - as he should be.

Not done a table for Middlesbrough yet but yeah, agreed- no issue to 2021, I also think unlikely they will have an issue to 2022- Assombalonga dropping off unless Impaired at some point in the last 3 years is £3.7-3.8m in amortisation savings on him alone. Fletcher £6.5m/4...also went- again if no Impairment, this reduces amortisation by a further £1.6m or so. Varied other departures too, range of cost savings and profit on disposal- yes some expensive sounding loanees in too. Surely Assombalonga and Fletcher- especially the former- were major earners too? That helps.

I think more likely is that they MIGHT have an issue to 2022/23 if they don't win the playoffs (Fulham and Bournemouth top two IMO barring any deductions), but surely if so they will sell players if required and show a bit of restraint on the other side of it- Gibson has done this before and they have a range of saleable assets. Wilder isn't a manager who needs a huge budget either. Spence widely rated at £10-15m joined on a free, so barring some sort of compensation based sell on clause to Fulham it's £10-15m to offset losses if required from him alone.

They are rare fwiw, but not unheard of- Man City got a % of the Sancho fee last summer.

Might also add, would be astonished if Gibson steered Middlesbrough onto the FFP rocks given his anger in 2019 and the impact it has had- plus the fact he was pursuing Derby as recently as 6 weeks to two months ago until the accord with Mel Morris.

See my post 29 above which I wrote after reading the post you copy above.