the_dormouse
Well-known member
Daniel Farke must have an amazing record in the championship.
Could Ipswich win the championship
- Thread starter Ayresome_park
- Start date
TeaCider
Well-known member
They're doing far better than Luton.
They've already beaten Luton's points tally and massively outscored them and there are still 8 games to go.
Ipswich are having an incredible season for a newly promoted side.
Whatever happens, we're going to see a record points tally to not get automatic promotion.
We got 2nd place with 89 points in 2016.
Leicester are on track to get 100 points.
Leeds are on track to get 99 points.
Ipswich are on track to get 98 points.
Southampton are on track to get 93 points.
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Jonny Ingbar
Well-known member
This season has been remarkable in that there are four exceptional teams all way ahead of the rest of the division.
Even if we scraped into the play-offs (we absolutely won't btw), it would be a very very hard ask.
Even if we scraped into the play-offs (we absolutely won't btw), it would be a very very hard ask.
Glover_elbow
Well-known member
Love the way they play so aggressively on the front foot in true championship style. They scored 6 at home on Saturday whilst we couldn't manage a single goal. I cant help but look on with envy as to how have they got it so right and why we are a million miles away.
BobUpnDown
Well-known member
Ipswich & Leeds for auto promotion I hope.. means we'd have full squad to select from........ in the playoffs.. 
festa5
Well-known member
Say what you like about Gibson, but he's an unlucky sod.
The effort and money he's put into the club and yet season after season clubs with owners who don't make anything like the same effort suddenly "click" and go on these incredible runs.
Even when we have gone up it's felt like hard work and we've had to have a number of players probably a bit too good for the division to allow us to stagger over the line.
Some of it of course is of his own doing. His decision making is far from perfect. But still, you'd think he'd have got it right, even by accident, a couple of times by now and we'd have cantered to the title at least once.
Meanwhile (for example) every time "worst owner in the history of the game" Mike Ashley had Newcastle relegated, they bounced straight back as if it was barely an inconvenience
He must be looking at Ipswich with their CM pairing of boro cast offs and just be thinking oh FFS.
The effort and money he's put into the club and yet season after season clubs with owners who don't make anything like the same effort suddenly "click" and go on these incredible runs.
Even when we have gone up it's felt like hard work and we've had to have a number of players probably a bit too good for the division to allow us to stagger over the line.
Some of it of course is of his own doing. His decision making is far from perfect. But still, you'd think he'd have got it right, even by accident, a couple of times by now and we'd have cantered to the title at least once.
Meanwhile (for example) every time "worst owner in the history of the game" Mike Ashley had Newcastle relegated, they bounced straight back as if it was barely an inconvenience
He must be looking at Ipswich with their CM pairing of boro cast offs and just be thinking oh FFS.
Glover_elbow
Well-known member
Its not unlucky its incompetence or mismanagementSay what you like about Gibson, but he's an unlucky sod.
The effort and money he's put into the club and yet season after season clubs with owners who don't make anything like the same effort suddenly "click" and go on these incredible runs.
Even when we have gone up it's felt like hard work and we've had to have a number of players probably a bit too good for the division to allow us to stagger over the line.
Some of it of course is of his own doing. His decision making is far from perfect. But still, you'd think he'd have got it right, even by accident, a couple of times by now and we'd have cantered to the title at least once.
Meanwhile (for example) every time "worst owner in the history of the game" Mike Ashley had Newcastle relegated, they bounced straight back as if it was barely an inconvenience
He must be looking at Ipswich with their CM pairing of boro cast offs and just be thinking oh FFS.
Marvanelli
Well-known member
Although they have been brilliant this season - they have been extremely lucky too.
Their underlying's and stats, especially in the first half of the season showed they were massively overperforming their league position. They were winning a lot of games by the odd goal when the stats showed they shouldn't have.
They have kept it going, and recruited well in January, but their numbers (not goals - but xG etc) are way behind Leicester and Leeds. This would suggest they will fall away. Whether they will or won't, we'll soon find out.
Their underlying's and stats, especially in the first half of the season showed they were massively overperforming their league position. They were winning a lot of games by the odd goal when the stats showed they shouldn't have.
They have kept it going, and recruited well in January, but their numbers (not goals - but xG etc) are way behind Leicester and Leeds. This would suggest they will fall away. Whether they will or won't, we'll soon find out.
festa5
Well-known member
I don't disagree (as per my post), but is he really any worse than many other chairman who've fluked their way up?
There's no chance in hell we'd be where Ipswich are with their squad. Maybe unlucky is the wrong word. He's certainly not had much good luck, even when we've got it "right" (or close to).
Not like plenty of other sides have.
No such thing as luck over 46 matches. You get what you deserve
If you are consistently outscoring your xG (and xG is very subjective as it is) then it's because you have players who are capable of finishing above average. Like we did last season. Did you think we were lucky last season when we were consistently outscoring our xG?
Akpom outscored his xG by 6 goals
Archer outscored his xG by 5 goals
Forss outscored his xG by 3 goals
Ramsey outscored his xG by 2 goals.
They weren't lucky. They were good players that knew where the net was.
The only player to drastically outscore their xG for us this season is Forss who has scored 3 more goals than his xG similar to last season. Coburn has also outscored his xG by 1,5 goals.
Lath, Jones, Greenwood, Silvera, McGree, Crooks and Rogers have all scored either equal to or below their xG. They just aren't as clinical as the players above.
Chaplin, Broadhead, Hutchinson and Moore are all convincingly outscoring their xG for Ipswich hence why they are performing well.
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Colin Warnek
Well-known member
The first attempt is the most important time to bounce back - with PL quality players and parachute payments.Say what you like about Gibson, but he's an unlucky sod.
The effort and money he's put into the club and yet season after season clubs with owners who don't make anything like the same effort suddenly "click" and go on these incredible runs.
Even when we have gone up it's felt like hard work and we've had to have a number of players probably a bit too good for the division to allow us to stagger over the line.
Some of it of course is of his own doing. His decision making is far from perfect. But still, you'd think he'd have got it right, even by accident, a couple of times by now and we'd have cantered to the title at least once.
Meanwhile (for example) every time "worst owner in the history of the game" Mike Ashley had Newcastle relegated, they bounced straight back as if it was barely an inconvenience
He must be looking at Ipswich with their CM pairing of boro cast offs and just be thinking oh FFS.
Both seasons 2009-10 and 2016-17 we made a complete balls up of it in the managerial and recruitment department. Ashley and Newcastle didn't.
parmoboy
Well-known member
Yeah, like Ashley, Gibson threw money at it in an attempt to get us straight back up.
The mistake he made was entrusting a manager who'd achieved nothing, and then a manager whose style of play just wasn't suitable for the players we had.
I honestly think we'd have had a better chance of getting promoted if Gibson had have just given Agnew the job, and we'd more or less kept the same squad from the PL season.
We'd have made a serious push for automatic promotion with this team:
Dimi
Fabio
Ayala
Gibson
Friend
Traore
Clayton
Leadbitter
Downing
Stuani
Bamford
London_Boro
Well-known member
Hope so, what a great story that would be.
Marvanelli
Well-known member
Not necessarily. Yes the longer the run, more matches played, then the less volatile and the more of a trend there is in over/under performance. But 46 games (1 season) can still be relatively small amount of data.
Take Leicester winning the league for example. They massively overperformed for 38 league games.....that's not to say it's not possible for Ipswich to continue doing what they're doing, but they will need to continue getting 'lucky'.
But this isn't consistent with his career stats. So it suggests last season was the outlier. This season for example he's registered NPxG of 5.9 and has 6 goals - on par with his NPxG.
Another example of last season being an outlier. Archer this season has registered NPxG of 3.9 and has 4 goals. The season before he joined us (Preston loan) he amassed NPxG of 7.2 and scored 7 goals.
Forss at Brentford recorded a total NPxG of 8.6 and scored 8 goals (54 games - 1,444 minutes)
So far for us, he's recorded a total NPxG of 8.7 and has scored 14 (non pen) goals (59 games - 3,082 minutes). So at the moment, Forss is overperforming his NPxG consistently, with us.
Ramsey again is back to his original performance. Before us he scored 3 goals from 3.2 NPxG with Norwich and since he's scored 0 goals from 0.3 NPxG with Burnley. The data size for Ramsey is too small to suggest anything, as yet.
So last season for us, it's showing we were very lucky to have Archer, Akpom and Ramsey all performing much better than their overall data would suggest.
And yes, they are....but it's whether they can continue to overperform. There is no hard evidence to suggest all 4 will continue at this rate, based on their career data.
In fact, before Moore's loan spell to Ipswich, he was under performing his NPxG throughout his career.
Ayresome_park
Well-known member
The only stat that counts is the points tally and they don't lie they are there because they deserve to be and no one can count them out of the top two!!
they are there because they deserve to be and no one can count them out of the top two!!There's numerous factors why Archer, Ramsey and Akpom performed at their best last season that aren't just luck.
Haaland has gone from outscoring his xG by 6 goals last season to being 1 goal behind his xG this season. Guess he was just lucky last season as well?
Ayresome_park
Well-known member
Looking at teams around the play offs, I'd be a bit disappointed if I was a Hull City fan, 4 points from there last 4 games, I reckon they will miss out on the play offs.
They've been lucky anyway mate. They've outscored the xG by 8 goals. So have Southampton and Leicester. None of them deserve to go up
Marvanelli
Well-known member
HolgateCorner
Well-known member
I meant they play a bit like Luton, all action with players moving all the time.