Tell me the alternative.
Regime change?
We’re in an incredibly difficult situation. Show weakness and Putin may decide NATO doesn’t have the backbone to defend the Baltics etc - that would be nasty either way. Placate and you find yourself in Germany’s position thinking they can cajole Putin into being a good world citizen whilst relying on him for energy security. Ignore or lose interest and Putin will try to take more land as he’s consistently proved with the various little excursions around his borders.
The only way is a long term strategy that will keep him as a pariah. If we show weakness the you can be pretty sure Xi will be considering his dream of taking Taiwan.
It’s not hawkish. It’s realistic. I don’t want war, I love Russia and it’s one of my favourite places, but they have a dangerous leader with a large cult of personality who is willing to use leverage against the west. If we return to normal like many want to do, certainly in the business world, this will likely be the end of sovereign Ukraine for a long time and the FSU and former Warsaw Pact nations that understand Russia far better than us will feel incredibly vulnerable.
I’ve listened to Zhirinovsky and Putin when I lived in Kazakhstan openly talking about it not being a real country and only in existence because or Russia, Zhirinovsky went further and talked about annexing land there - exactly the same language used towards Ukraine.
Again, negotiating means giving up land - maybe Crimea would be palatable given its historic Russian ties, but what else should Ukraine have to give up just to have a couple of years before the next inevitable invasion? If you think they wouldn’t try again then you haven’t been paying attention to Putin since his “spheres of influence” speech in 2009 I think it was.
The only way to beat Putin is a united front of sanctions and helping Ukraine. The sanctions are only just starting to bite but they will get worse and Putin isn’t always popular amongst the population, I doubt a coup is on the cards but we could get to a position where the west no longer is beholden to an authoritarian dictator. It won’t be easy, but it’s not like all the problems in this country are a result of Putin.